PGA's popcorn movie pick is 'Skyfall'

The Producers Guild of America announced its ten nominees for Best Picture, and it's a very inclusive list. Both of the indie darlings, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild, were among the nominees. The much-accoladed Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty (of course) made the list, and Life of Pi slipped in, probably because of its literary pedigree and great cinematography. Also in the mix is Django Unchained, the violent,
challenging film that is a little bit like this year's version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Finally, the PGA recognized Skyfall. This year there have been a couple other great popcorn movies: The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers. But in the end, it was the one that released latest in the year--and was freshest in voters' minds--that garnered a nomination. Of all the popcorn movies, this is the one that appealed most to adults, including older males, that likely represent a sizeable amount of the PGA's members.

The PGA awards are best known for being extremely accurate predictors of the Oscar Best Picture winner. This year there is a deep selection of great movies, and there's no clear frontrunner. The latest word in the blogosphere is that Lincoln has a lead, but I sincerely hope another of the ones on my top movie list, such as Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings, Argo, or Les Misérables gets recognized instead. While Zero Dark Thirty and Les Misérables are my two favorites from this year, I think Les Misérables will eventually encounter some blowback from the singing choice. Many trained musicians have commented on social networks that the vocals make them cringe--especially those from, no surprise, Russell Crowe playing Javert. However, even its detractors acknowledge it's still a must-see, but I wonder if that may affect the Academy's voters. Will the musicians in the bunch be happy to recognize a film that relies heavily on music, or will they not be able to get past how the actors sound to a trained ear? With just under two months before the Oscar ceremony, this year's race is one of the most exciting in recent years. 

 

DGA nominations foreshadowing Oscar nods?

By Sarah Sluis

Oscar detectives have a new lead: the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announced their

nominations for Best Picture. They matched, five for five. Both guilds nominated The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for their top films. My editor Kevin Lally, for one, thinks they're right on, and that these films represent the likely Academy selections this year. But will Oscar voters agree?

Those in the Academy still have four days to cast their ballot for the nominees--January 12th. Will they be influenced by the recognition these five films have already received, and add a dark horse (Slumdog Millionaire) to their nominations? Will those reluctant to cast a ballot for a comic book film change their mind?

The DGA is known for correctly predicting the Best Director award, and the Risky Business Blog points out that the demographics, and tastes, of the DGA closely align with that of the Academy, making the rest of their nominations (including Best Picture) harbingers of the Academy's top five. From a budget/release pattern perspective, the five films are preternaturally balanced: two are big-budgeted, wide releases, one (Slumdog) has followed a specialty-to-moderate release pattern, with Milk coming up just behind. Frost/Nixon, with the smallest theatrical release, is holding up last place. Not having seen it myself, its small scope (what better place to watch a film about a TV interview than a TV, right?) makes it seem like the kind of film that will receive heavy DVD rentals after generating some awards publicity.

Aside from The Dark Knight, all five of these films have a historical and/or lifespan focus--perhaps appealing to older voters? While I appreciate grand and historical films as much as the next person, the 70's era settings of Milk and Frost/Nixon relive events many Academy voters were there to experience. This is also why Doubt, set the year after JFK's assassination (1964), might still have a chance.

The Academy will release its nominations in two weeks--until then, we'll continue to speculate.