‘Rise of an Empire’ to dwarf ‘Mr. Peabody & Sherman’

Seven years ago, CGI sword-and-sandals epic 300 took the box office by surprise when it opened to a wonderful $70 million. The Zach Snyder film, which set the March record for best opening weekend, would go on to earn over $456 million worldwide. 300: Rise of an Empire isn’t exactly a sequel, per se – interestingly, it covers the same span of time as the first movie – but, with a mostly new cast and a different angle on the Greek-Spartan conflict, it’s certainly a follow-up. The question is, will it match the debut of its predecessor? Unlikely. The novelty of Snyder’s signature style has worn off (although Snyder worked on the screenplay, commercials director Noam Murro helmed Rise of an Empire), as has 300’s mix of togas and action; thanks to the popularity of the first film, we’ve seen several copycut productions and spoofs since 2007. Nonetheless, 300: Rise of an Empire is still tracking strong. According to Fandango, the movie is out-selling G.I. Joe: Retaliation in pre-sales, which bodes well for a solid opening: G.I. Joe opened to $40.5 million last March. Also, let’s not forget, Rise of an Empire is screening in 58 markets overseas. Even if it fails to match 300 domestically, it could out-perform its predecessor internationally.

Gunning for second place, DreamWorks production Mr. Peabody & Sherman also opens wide this weekend. March has historically been kind to the animation studio: The Croods opened to $43.6 million in 2013 while How to Train Your Dragon bowed to $43.7 million in 2010. Many pundits are unsure, however, how Mr. Peabody & Sherman will perform. DreamWorks' last two productions, Rise of the Guardians and Turbo, failed to meet expectations and even lost money.  Sherman has so far garnered mixed reviews, and it faces stiff competition from the still-going-strong The Lego Movie. Fandango has the film tracking stronger than Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, which opened to $34 million this past September. 20^th Century Fox, however, is only expecting $25 to $30 million in opening-weekend business.

For specialty devotees, the weekend’s big release comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s latest, The Grand Budapest Hotel. Great reviews and a strong cast – Ralph Fiennes, Saoirse Ronan, Tilda Swinton, Adrien Brody, Jeff Goldblum, and cameos by Anderson stalwarts Bill Murray and Owen Wilson – should propel the film to high returns. Think somewhere south of his roundly loved Moonrise Kingdom, which scored the third-best per-theatre average for a live action film when it opened in 2012, but possibly north of Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009) and The Life Aquatic of Steve Zissou (2004), both of which opened in the low $20 millions.

Overall, the weekend’s box-office breakdown should look something like this:

1. 300: Rise of an Empire


2. Mr. Peabody & Sherman


3. Non-Stop


4. Son of God


5. The Lego Movie

‘Lego’ to abdicate in favor of Liam – or the ‘Son of God’

The Lego Movie’s successful reign at the top of the box office is poised to come to an end this weekend, as two new releases featuring high-profile men – ageless action star Liam Neeson and timeless figure of fascination Jesus Christ, played by Portuguese actor Diogo Morgado – open wide. While most pundits agree Lego will take third place to both Non-Stop and Son of God, they’re less sure which of the latter will earn the top spot.

On the one hand, Non-Stop is the latest suspense thriller to feature Liam Neeson with a gun, kicking butt but not so much bothering to take names, later or otherwise. This persona has resonated with movie-goers, who made a hit out of the film that featured Neeson’s breakout action role, 2008’s Taken, and showed up in solid numbers to Unknown (2011) and The Grey (2011), both of which opened to roughly $20 million. Given the strong marketing push behind Non-Stop, which included many commercials throughout the winter Olympics, not to mention its bid for female patronage in the form of actresses Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey’s” Lady Mary) and Best Supporting Actress nominee Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), the movie’s opening could well exceed Neeson’s last two films. Twenty-five million dollars or more seems likely.

But then we have wild card Son of God. Will viewers pay to see footage they could get, and most likely have already seen, for free on the History Channel? The film is a repurposing of TV’s “The Bible” mini-series produced by Mark Burnett and his wife Roma Downey, who also plays the Virgin Mary. It’s a good question, though given advance ticket sales (according to Fandango, as of yesterday morning Son of God accounted for 40 percent of pre-sales) the answer may very well be, yes, they will. Box Office Mojo used Pew Research Group data to do a series of nifty calculations regarding the country’s Christians, God’s target demographic (an unintentionally Meta phrase). According to the site, over 80 million Americans attend Christian services each week. If only five percent of that church-going population buys tickets to Son of God, the movie will open to upwards of $30 million. This also seems likely.

Three other releases opening wide or expanding today include Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises, which performed well in limited release last weekend (it will screen in 496 theatres this weekend); Russia’s first movie shot in IMAX 3D, Stalingrad (opening in 308 IMAX locations); and Repentance, starring Forest Whitaker and Anthony Mackie (152 theatres). An extended cut of Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues will also screen in 1,317 locations. Apparently, this lengthier version features 763 new jokes, a gimmick that will likely appeal to only the most diehard of Ron Burgundy devotees. Receipts should tally out to around or under $2 million.

Happy Oscar weekend!

 

'The Lincoln Lawyer' joins the Groupon bandwagon

By Sarah Sluis

The Lincoln Lawyer seems like a fun genre movie, a nice throwback to the John Grisham adaptations starring Tom Cruise and Matt Damon. But it also registers as a movie that a lot of people will wait to watch at home. Enter: Groupon, which Lionsgate is using to incentivize people to see it at the theatre. Today in NYC, for example, one can get a voucher to see the movie for just $6, redeemable on Fandango. Considering movie tickets in NYC go for twice that, it's a pretty good deal.

Before I go any further, let me say this: I love Groupon, Living Social, BuyWithMe, BloomSpot, and all those other "daily deal" sites, so much so that I had to create a spreadsheet to keep track of all of my purchases and their expiration dates. They usually offer 50% discounts and have somehow managed to remove that feeling of indignity you can get when redeeming a coupon. So I'm naturally in favor of movie theatres jumping on the bandwagon. In fact, they already have. I've seen deals for cheap Fandango tickets on competitor Living Social. I'm also pretty sure I've seen some independent cinemas offer discounted tickets (though I can't confirm this because expired deals have a tricky way of disappearing).

But will it pay off for Lionsgate? According to most insiders, Groupon tends to charge a 50% commission, meaning that Lionsgate would get just $3 for each ticket, which would be split further with Fandango. But there are always the people who forget to redeem, or forget to buy but then decide they want to go anyway. As of this posting, 11,000 people in the NYC area bought tickets to The Lincoln Lawyer, totaling $66,000 in sales. It's unclear how this will be reflected in the weekend box office, but I'll be keeping my eye on this movie's performance. After all, Groupon's subscribers total 60 million, an awful lot of people to be messaged about one movie.