‘Lego’ to abdicate in favor of Liam – or the ‘Son of God’

The Lego Movie’s successful reign at the top of the box office is poised to come to an end this weekend, as two new releases featuring high-profile men – ageless action star Liam Neeson and timeless figure of fascination Jesus Christ, played by Portuguese actor Diogo Morgado – open wide. While most pundits agree Lego will take third place to both Non-Stop and Son of God, they’re less sure which of the latter will earn the top spot.

On the one hand, Non-Stop is the latest suspense thriller to feature Liam Neeson with a gun, kicking butt but not so much bothering to take names, later or otherwise. This persona has resonated with movie-goers, who made a hit out of the film that featured Neeson’s breakout action role, 2008’s Taken, and showed up in solid numbers to Unknown (2011) and The Grey (2011), both of which opened to roughly $20 million. Given the strong marketing push behind Non-Stop, which included many commercials throughout the winter Olympics, not to mention its bid for female patronage in the form of actresses Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey’s” Lady Mary) and Best Supporting Actress nominee Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), the movie’s opening could well exceed Neeson’s last two films. Twenty-five million dollars or more seems likely.

But then we have wild card Son of God. Will viewers pay to see footage they could get, and most likely have already seen, for free on the History Channel? The film is a repurposing of TV’s “The Bible” mini-series produced by Mark Burnett and his wife Roma Downey, who also plays the Virgin Mary. It’s a good question, though given advance ticket sales (according to Fandango, as of yesterday morning Son of God accounted for 40 percent of pre-sales) the answer may very well be, yes, they will. Box Office Mojo used Pew Research Group data to do a series of nifty calculations regarding the country’s Christians, God’s target demographic (an unintentionally Meta phrase). According to the site, over 80 million Americans attend Christian services each week. If only five percent of that church-going population buys tickets to Son of God, the movie will open to upwards of $30 million. This also seems likely.

Three other releases opening wide or expanding today include Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises, which performed well in limited release last weekend (it will screen in 496 theatres this weekend); Russia’s first movie shot in IMAX 3D, Stalingrad (opening in 308 IMAX locations); and Repentance, starring Forest Whitaker and Anthony Mackie (152 theatres). An extended cut of Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues will also screen in 1,317 locations. Apparently, this lengthier version features 763 new jokes, a gimmick that will likely appeal to only the most diehard of Ron Burgundy devotees. Receipts should tally out to around or under $2 million.

Happy Oscar weekend!

 

‘Lego’ to bury ‘Pompeii’

Two major releases, disaster epic Pompeii and the latest spy thriller from writer-producer Luc Besson, 3 Days to Kill, may be opening wide today, but neither action flick is any match for a group of special toys. Once again, The Lego Movie is expected to win the weekend. Many pundits have placed their bets on Pompeii taking second place with $12 or $15 million. If those expectations bear out, it would make for an underwhelming debut, considering the CGI-laden movie had a production value of around $100 million. Studio execs are hoping Pompeii, which was financed by the German company Constantin Films, will earn most of its money overseas.

3 Days to Kill is also tracking soft, but luckily, the film directed by McG and starring Kevin Costner as an aging operative struggling to balance family time with the demands of his job, only cost $28 million to make. The movie’s father angle is similar to Besson’s successful Taken films, though no one is expecting Kill to reach the same box-office highs of those unnervingly fun Liam Neeson vehicles. Instead, 3 Days to Kill should pull in around $12 million.

The specialty division welcomes two new releases of its own this weekend: In Secret, an adaptation of Emile Zola's novel Thérèse Raquin starring Elizabeth Olsen and Oscar Isaac; and The Wind Rises, the latest and last animated film from Japan’s beloved Hayao Miyazaki. In Secret hasn’t been given much of a marketing push, and reviews have been mixed to poor (right now, the movie is tracking 49 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes). The Wind Rises, on the other hand, has the heft of the Miyazaki name behind it, not to mention the clout of an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Film. Controversy surrounding the movie’s handling of Japanese involvement in WWII may also spur viewer interest. In Secret probably won’t earn more than $1 million from its 266 locations, but expect The Wind Rises, playing in 21 theatres, to make a solid showing.

'Friday the 13th' most profitable holiday in four-day weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Earning $19.35 million on its eponymous release date, Friday the 13th had a comfortably steep slope to

slide down as its grosses decreased through the rest of the four-day weekend. It ended the weekend with a $45.2 million gross, including a $4.5 million gross on President's Day.

Just behind the man in the hockey mask, He's Just Not That Into You experienced strong holdover business, dropping just 29.4% from the weekend before (15.9% if you include Monday) to earn about half of Friday the 13th's gross, $23.36 million. Two spots below, Confessions of a Shopaholic opened to 80% of HJNTIY's gross. $17.3 million. While HJNTIY and Taken doubled their Friday gross on Valentine's Day, Confessions of a Shopaholic only saw a 50% boost in business, indicating that it was less of a draw for the holiday's audiences.

Sleeper hit Taken dropped just 7.5% to finish third, even as it decreased the number of screens in its release. It went on to earn $22.2 million over the four-day weekend. I have not seen a single commercial for this film, which indicates that the marketing campaign successfully excluded those outside the probable demographic.

If the economy really explains Confessions of a Shopaholic's clearance-level opening, then maybe the economy can also explain the success of Taken. At a time when people are losing everything, a movie about reclaiming a prized possession (hey, the kidnappers are the ones claiming a child has a price) serves as a proxy for that foreclosed home, while

also subtly reminding people of their priorities. Our reviewer Jon Frosch aptly called the kipppapping film "a lurid pull" because it has the built-in pressure to find someone before it's "too late," while also activating deep insecurities about the trustworthiness of those close to you--the "inside job." The genre could even be considered a male melodrama, in the sense that it deals with threats to family, unfortunate turns of fate, and tugs on the heartstrings. What makes the genre so appealing, however, is that it's also about the male hero being able to rally and save the day, and what better film for today's economy? Or Valentine's Day?

Rounding out the list, The International debuted at #7, earning $9.3 million, which I calculate approximately covers the cost of the fake Guggenheim set, plus maybe Naomi Watts? Even though the bank (and the mob) are the villains in this movie, it seemed far removed from the credit crisis. Selling weapons to Third World countries, further indebting them and subjecting them to the bank's control just didn't seem that evil, or relevant. What about falsifying mortgage documents and bankrupting once-upon-a-time homeowners? I'd like to see a movie about that.

Other beneficiaries of the four-day weekend included kid-themed pictures Coraline, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and The Pink Panther 2. All three films jumped up a spot from their weekend gross once President's Day was factored in. Far down at #9, and benefiting from its "shoo-in" reputation for the Best Picture in the Oscar race, Slumdog Millionaire saw an increase in business, adding $7.3 million to give it a cumulative $86.6 million gross--and, with a boost the next couple weekends from the Oscar (and post-Oscar), perhaps it will finally top the $100 million mark.

'Taken' scores on Super Bowl weekend box office

By Sarah Sluis

As I mentioned on Friday, studios have avoided releasing male-oriented films on Super Bowl Weekend,

wary of the inevitable spike downward on Sunday, when people everywhere huddle around the television to eat guacamole and chicken wings, and/or watch the game. Fox chanced that kidnapping thriller Taken would be able to grab enough viewers Friday and Saturday to make up for a precipitous drop on Sunday. They were right. Taken dropped 69% on Sunday, but still managed to make $24.6 million and finish the weekend at number one.

To put the numbers in perspective, most films drop 25-40% on Sunday (a number in the mid-30's is about average). What Fox must have noticed, though, is that even non-male oriented titles drop on Super Bowl Sunday. New in Town, for example, a female-skewing romantic comedy, dropped 61% on Sunday--only eight percent less than Taken. Clearly, the Super Bowl is not the provenance of males alone, but inspires households to watch together, male and female alike.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop, like Taken, exceeded the studio's box office expectations. The surprise success continued to rally above-average audiences. The film came in at number two again, earning $14 million. Its three-week total of $83 million assures that it will cross the $100 million mark in a few more weeks.

Horror flick The Uninvited debuted at number three to $10.5 million, exceeding the results of fellow wide release opener New in Town, a romantic comedy that posed a challenge to marketers over at Lionsgate, and received a mention in a recent New Yorker article on film marketing. Making a slim $6.7 million, it apparently came in according to the studio's (low) expectations.

Oscar shut-out Gran Torino has received a different kind of award: box-office success. The film has already passed the $100 million mark, and pulled in another $8.6 million this week. Eastwood was honored with the Irving G. Thalberg award fourteen years ago--and, like many of those honored, has continued an outpouring of solid, high-quality work.

Slumdog Millionaire, still buzzing twelve weeks after it opened, expanded its release yet again, earning $7.6 million and bringing its cumulative to $67.2 million. Director Danny Boyle won the DGA award this weekend. The award almost always results in a win for Best Director at the Oscars, so Slumdog, while garnering far fewer nominations than Ben Button, has a stronger chance of winning its categories.

Next week brings deliciously creepy stop-motion Coraline, romcom He's Just Not That Into You, Pink Panther 2, and Push. Summit's Push stars Dakota Fanning, meaning the young actress, who also voices the titular role in Coraline, will have two films debut the same week.

Full studio estimates here.