'Gatsby' goes over the top with a $51 million opening

There were hints that The Great Gatsby was not going to open big. Critics have been a bit mixed on the movie, and Warner Bros. moved it from a December release date to May, which some took to mean the studio was making a vote of no confidence. After opening to $51 million, about 25% higher than most estimates, Warner Bros. likely feels their decision to move the Baz Luhrmann-directed film paid off. Really, it's just more of a fkuffy summer spectacle than the kind of movie that could make an awards play. Since Gatsby is required reading for most American high schoolers, the content was extremely familiar while being presented as a visual feast. Music from Jay-Z and the casting of Leonardo DiCaprio gave the movie an extra boost. However, it turns out the audiences agreed with critics, giving the feature a so-so "B" rating in exit polls, so Gatsby may fade faster than if it had been a hit among audiences.

Beating the opening weekend of Gatsby, Iron Man 3 brought in another $72.4 million,
a 58% decline from the previous week. For a movie that opened so high,
that's actually a decent hold. Receipts from foreign territories will
help bring the picture over $1 billion worldwide before next Friday.

Is it possible that black audiences might have chosen to see The Great Gatsby (with its Jay-Z-produced soundtrack) instead of Peeples this weekend? Despite two well-known TV stars, Craig Robinson and Kerry Washington, and a "Tyler Perry Presents" label, the comedy bombed with just $4.8 million. Lionsgate should be able to do better than that, given its experience marketing Perry's works, but maybe that was just the problem--the audience for Perry's work didn't care for this feature, which was only produced by him. In 2011, a similar black-targeted wedding comedy about class differences, Jumping the Broom, opened to $15 million, so this is way off the target.

Playing in two U.S. markets, the highly regarded documentary Stories We Tell averaged $15,000 per location, a great start for the feature, which will likely play well on VOD and beyond.

On Thursday, the second mega-blockbuster of the season, Star Trek Into Darkness, will start peeling off the audience for Iron Man 3.

Will the glitter of 'Gatsby' outshine the second weekend of 'Iron Man 3'?

This weekend, Iron Man 3 will continue to coast back down from its sky-high debut. Given its incredible $175 million opening weekend, even week two is likely to exceed the opening of the overstuffed, glittery The Great Gatsby (3,535 theatres), the latest from director Baz Luhrmann, who specializes in visual excess. It's also Mother's Day on Sunday, and it's likely that this movie will beat Iron Man 3 when families choose Mom's pick. The light wedding comedy Peeples will also stand to benefit from Mother's Day outings.

Critics have been divided about Gatsby. It's currently tracking 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a positive or negative review seems to hinge on the author's opinion of Luhrmann's excess. Our critic Rex Roberts predicts that his take on F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel will "generate a buzz with young audiences," especially since it's required reading in most high school classrooms. "Bold, brazen and splendiferous," it's "gorgeous to watch if you enjoy this sort of spectacle." Whatever the result of the final product, interest in Gatsby is high, and it could reach $40 million.

Craig Robinson from "The Office" stars opposite "Scandal's" Kerry Washington in Peeples (2,041 theatres), a Meet the Parents transported to the milieu of the African-American elite. As a man (Robinson) prepares to propose to his girlfriend (Washington) on her family's gilded turf, he uncovers crazy secrets about the supposedly refined family. They're so outrageous, critic David Noh wonders "how any of them got away
with their behavior for so long: secret, sometimes kinky sex lives;
denied breast augmentation; kleptomania; booze and drug addiction;
and a hidden nocturnal life for the Judge as he prowls the
beach." That's just a hint of the humor in store for viewers. An opening in the $15-20 million would be right on target for the comedy.

After success in limited release, Mud will undergo a second expansion into 854 theatres this week. The Matthew McConaughey-led feature has already earned $5 million, and it could add at least 50% to that total in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see how Gatsby's visual feast went over with audiences, and how much progress Iron Man 3 made towards the $1 billion mark.