Can Blu fly past the Captain?

Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will both vie for the top slot at the box office this Friday-Sunday. The former is one of the weekend’s new major releases and the follow-up to the popular Rio, an animated kids’ film about a pair of endangered macaws (voiced by Jesse Eisenberg and Anne Hathaway).  When it opened in spring of 2011, Rio grossed almost $40 million. Its successor is currently tracking in the high-$30-to-low-$40-millions range, prompting many pundits to speculate it should match, possibly even better, the original. If either proves to be the case, Rio 2 will give holdover Captain America: The Winter Soldier a run for its sky-high pile of dough. Given positive critical reviews and smiling word-of-mouth, The Winter Soldier is expected to hold well. However, comic book movies often plummet their second weekend in theatres – Iron Man 3 dipped 58 percent, for example – so the title of Weekend’s Top Earner is really up for grabs.

Beginning today and with a slightly smaller platform than Rio 2, which opens in 3,948 locations, the latest sports film to star Kevin Costner, Draft Day, will screen in 2,781 theatres. The movie gives a fictionalized behind-the-scenes look at the unpublicized maneuvering that takes place in the lead-up to the NFL draft. Costner is firmly ensconced in familiar territory here, playing the American underdog everyman fighting for good amidst the corrupt milieu of an American sports industry. Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and Tin Cup are among Costner’s best-loved movies, and Draft Day looks to repeat the old-fashioned though nonetheless satisfying story arc characteristic of those films. Will audiences go for Costner’s brand of comfort? Reviews for Draft Day aren’t great, and recent sports movies haven’t opened very strong: Moneyball, which is basically the baseball version of Day, had great buzz going for it and still only managed to rake in $19.5 million over its opening weekend. Distributor Lionsgate believes Draft Day will gross in the low teens.

The last new major release to open this weekend is also the first horror offering since January’s Devil’s Due. Oculus will screen in 2,648 theatres. The flick has producer Jason Blum (the Paranormal Activity movies) behind it, and has been pretty well reviewed, though box-office expectations are modest. Returns around $11 or $12 million would be considered solid.

Finally, the specialty realm has two new offerings of its own in Joe, starring Nicolas Cage and directed by cult favorite David Gordon Green, and Cuban Fury, a salsa comedy starring Nick Frost and Rashida Jones. The latter is playing in 79 theatres while the former will start off its B.O. run in 48 locations.

‘The Winter Soldier’ ices the competition

The Avengers effect was on full display this weekend as Captain America: The Winter Soldier blew its predecessor out of the water, not to mention the other films currently playing in theatres, with a $96.2 million debut. That tallies out to a 48 percent improvement over the first Captain America’s opening weekend haul, and falls just shy of the wildly successful Iron Man’s $98.6 million bow in 2008. Since The Avengers premiered in summer of 2012, subsequent films featuring Avengers characters have enjoyed great success, prompting pundits to coin the term “The Avengers effect.” To wit: Iron Man 3’s debut was up 63 percent over pre-Avengers Iron Man 2, while Thor: The Dark World enjoyed a 30 percent bump over its predecessor. If Captain America: The Winter Soldier roughly follows the same theatrical trajectory as The Dark World, it should end up banking around $230 million in total. With audiences (64 percent male) awarding the movie an A CinemaScore grade, The Winter Soldier’s hold should prove strong in the weeks ahead.

Coming in way, way, practically subterranean (subaquatic?) below Captain America, Noah landed the weekend’s No. 2 spot with a $17 million gross. Down a whopping 61 percent from last weekend, Noah has so far earned $72.3 million.

For its part, the weekend’s No. 3 earner, Divergent, has raked in $114 million to date. It earned $13 million of that total this weekend.

God’s Not Dead continues to testify to the power of the faithful: The film added an additional $7.7 million to its cume that now stands at $32.5 million.  Clocking in at No. 5, The Grand Budapest Hotel continues to testify to the appeal of Wes Anderson: The film raked in $6.3 million. Its cume thus far tallies out to $33.4 million.

Halle Berry’s maltreated Frankie & Alice, which has been ready and waiting for theatrical release since 2010, finally debuted this weekend. Unfortunately, interest in the flick, for which Berry earned a Golden Globe nomination in ’10, was wanting. The movie earned just $350,000 from 171 locations.

On the positive end of the specialty spectrum, Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin starring Scarlett Johansson raked in $140,000 from four theatres (two in LA and two in New York City), which tallies out to a nice per-theatre average of $35,000.

‘Catching Fire’ does just that

As predicted, records were shattered this past weekend, thanks to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’s fantastic bow. The sequel to 2012’s Hunger Games (and we thought that film was popular) earned $161.1 million domestically and $307.7 worldwide. Here’s how it stacks up against previous cinematic and pop culture phenoms:

• Catching Fire had the highest-grossing November opening of all time. The old record-holder, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, debuted to a paltry (it’s all relative) $148.2 million.


• Catching Fire had the fourth highest-grossing opening ever. Its cume ranks just behind The Avengers’ $207.4 million, Iron Man 3’s $174.1 million, and the last Harry Potter movie’s $169.2 million.


• Katniss & Co. just barely dethroned The Dark Knight Rises, which got bumped down a peg to the No. 5 slot on the list of most successful domestic opening weekends. Knight opened to $160.9 million back in 2012.

Catching Fire is also Lionsgate’s most successful release to date. It had the 12th most lucrative international opening ever.

Some other movies made some money this weekend, too, although their stories are less uplifting. Thor: The Dark World earned $14.1 million, the most money of any film that was not Catching Fire. As its total suggests, The Dark World suffered a freefall of a drop in sales, down 61% from last week. The Best Man Holiday, last weekend’s surprise success story, also staggered, falling 58% to gross $12.5 million. While reverberations from the revolution brewing in The Hunger Games' Panem have clearly hurt the cinema’s other offerings, neither The Dark World nor Holiday has been fatally wounded. The Thor sequel will likely finish out with a little over $200 million, while The Best Man Holiday will probably top out at $75 million.

Similar reassurances cannot be made on behalf of Vince Vaughn’s latest vehicle, Delivery Man. The comedian begat a bomb with his tale of a boy-man sperm donor whose contributions result in 500+ children. Delivery Man grossed $8.2 million, less than half of each of Vaughn’s last two films, The Internship and The Dilemma. At least Vaughn can take comfort in knowing other name stars, at least those who were not christened Jennifer Lawrence, have also seen their stock fall this season. Both Runner Runner, starring Ben Affleck and Justin Timberlake, and The Counselor, whose credits read like the guest list for Vanity Fair’s Oscar party (Penelope Cruz, Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Michael Fassbender, and Brad Pitt) opened to less than $10 million. Times, they are a changin’.

One thing, however, remains constant: the undeniable appeal of Judi Dench. The grand dame’s Philomena opened in four locations and earned a respectable (how could it could have been anything other than?) $133,716, or $33,429 per theatre.

Neither has Tom Hanks lost his enduring appeal. The actor’s Oscar contender Captain Phillips sailed past the $100 million domestic mark this weekend, its seventh, with no sign of slowing pace.

‘Thor’ hangs tough amid a happy ‘Holiday’

Far exceeding expectations, The Best Man Holiday enjoyed a very merry debut. In 1999, The Best Man netted $9 million its opening weekend, or $14 million when adjusted for inflation. Its holiday reunion sequel, featuring several cast members who have grown in popularity over the last decade-and-a-half, took in $30 million this past weekend – double the original’s haul. Audiences were overwhelmingly African American (87 percent) and female (75 percent), prompting many pundits to reiterate their claim that African Americans are a largely underserved demographic.

Be that as it may, audiences of all stripes continued to pack the theatre for Thor. The Dark World held on to its no. 1 slot with $38.5 million. Although the Marvel  blockbuster can now boast a $147 million domestic cume, it did slip 55 percent from last weekend. The original Thor only slid 47 percent its sophomore weekend, although, to be fair, Iron Man 3, featuring arguably the most likable superhero of the crowded bunch, suffered a 58 percent dropoff its second weekend out of the gate. As it stands now, Thor: The Dark World will likely reap $250 million by the end of its run, so there’s really no need to lament the inevitability of a slipping grip.

Last Vegas and Free Birds also continued to fulfill their roles, as box-office filler, to the best of their abilities. Once again, the two comedies targeted toward audience members at opposite ends of the life cycle clocked in at nos. 3 and 4, respectively. Last Vegas dipped just 20 percent to earn $8.85 million, while Birds pecked out a respectable $8.3 million profit. Rounding out the weekend's top 5, Bad Grandpa took in over $7 million, bringing its total domestic earnings to $90.2 million. The film will likely stick around until it’s crossed the impressive $100 million mark.

Having earned $140,000 from four locations, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has divided pundits as to whether or not it enjoyed a successful debut. For a specialty feature, $140,000 is a respectable and certainly solid figure. However, as this is also a Payne movie and the followup to the director’s Oscar-winning The Descendants, there are those who felt disappointed by Nebraska’s $35,000 per-theatre average. The black-and-white film will also likely prove a marketing challenge beyond the arthouse contingent. Awards buzz might help, but the movie’s popular success is far from certain.

The same couldn’t be further from the truth when it comes to the season’s largest success story, Gravity. Just because the 3D feature has been missing from the headlines these past few weeks doesn’t mean viewers have forgotten about it. On the contrary: Gravity passed the $500 million international benchmark this weekend.

Can The Hunger Games: Catching Fire hope to match that? T minus four days!

‘Thor’ proves its mighty earning mettle

As predicted, Thor: The Dark World ruled the multiplexes this weekend. The latest Marvel action (with a hefty dose of comedy) flick earned $86 million at the domestic box office and $180 million worldwide. It looks as if the lauded sequel will soon out-gross its predecessor: By the end of  summer 2011, Thor had earned a successful $450 million worldwide, while The Dark World has already amassed a stellar $327 million after only two weeks. Many are crediting Thor’s appearance in 2012’s The Avengers with increasing interest in his character. The “Avengers Effect” was certainly in play for Iron Man 3, which saw a significant boost in sales over Iron Man 2 (36%) after it opened post-Avengers. Not everyone is thrilled with what is undoubtedly a blockbuster debut, however. 3D attendance was down from the first Thor, and 3D sales made up just 39% of The Dark World’s overall gross, falling short of Gravity-influenced expectations. But that’s splitting hairs on a well-coiffed head. Lacking as it does any significant competition, Thor is expected to hold onto its title for some time.



Unfortunately for everyone else, standing next to a Norse god is bound to dwarf you.  This weekend’s No. 2, Bad Grandpa, earned just $11.3 million, down 44% from last weekend. The good news? Even with the inevitable dropoff, Grandpa is the second highest-grossing Jackass film of all time, on track to earn well over $100 million.

Third and fourth place just missed out-grossing Grandpa. Free Birds and Last Vegas earned $11.2 and $11.1 million, respectively. Their overall cumes are equally waddle-neck-in-neck:  Audiences have more or less ignored the critics and helped Free Birds earn $30.2 million and Last Vegas $33.5 million to date.



Dropping faster than an intergalactic deity to Earth, Ender’s Game suffered a sales dip of 62% to earn $10.3 million. That brings the film’s total up to $44 million, which, considering its advance hype, production costs and this weekend’s steep sophomore dropoff, qualifies it as a bomb. Expect the film to hang around for another week or two, but once Katniss and co. stage their multiplex takeover come November 22 for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Ender’s Game will be all but over.

Not so with Steve McQueen’s everyone-loves-it 12 Years A Slave. After expanding wide to 1,144 locations, Slave earned $6.6 million to bump its total earnings up to $17.3 million. The rollout, and profits, will continue this coming weekend when the film screens at roughly 1,300 theatres.



Finally, with the weekend’s smallest opening, The Book Thief earned a solid $108,000 from four locations. The film, though, isn’t tracking too hot on Rotten Tomatoes – 59% rotten – and Fox has yet to announce further expansion plans.

'Thor' poised to overtake weekend box-office

As Freddie Mercury might say, this weekend’s box-office contenders are waiting for the hammer to fall. Thor: The Dark World will likely assert its dominance over the domestic market when it bows in 3,841 locations tonight. Many are predicting the sequel to 2011’s Thor will gross approximately $95 million, earning slightly less than fellow superhero flicks Batman, Spider-Man, Iron Man and Superman, which all debuted to upwards of $100 million. Last weekend, The Dark World made headlines when it opened to a tuneful $111 million overseas. Basically, everyone knows who the winner of this weekend’s sales race will be, the question is, by just how much will Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Natalie Portman and team outstrip the competition?

The Avengers effect, the box-office theory that posits solo vehicles for those characters that appeared in 2012’s The Avengers will experience a boost in sales thanks to that film's popularity, proved true for Iron Man 3 and will probably factor into The Dark World’s success.  That Thor’s mighty earning potential is already being treated as a foregone conclusion is great news for the ever-expanding cinematic Marvel universe, though less so for everyone else, like last weekend’s No. 1, Ender’s Game. It’s looking as if the young adult adaptation will slip a couple of spots this Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Bad Grandpa is holding strong, and so is the critically denigrated if fan darling Last Vegas – they’ll likely land at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. That leaves Ender’s Game to keep warm the oft-overlooked No. 4 slot. The film may have been groomed to spawn a franchise, but such a large dip in popular interest its second weekend out of the gate doesn’t bode well for executive interest in Ender’s Game 2.

Another movie about the forces of good matching against the embodiment of evil, The Book Thief, will also open, in four locations in New York and LA, tonight. The Nazi-era adaptation of Markus Zusak’s young adult novel of the same name recounts the childhood of Liesel Meminger, the titular literary robber whose love for books sees her through trying social, political and personal conditions. The film is tracking a solid 67% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and with its light though not particularly inventive treatment of the source material will also likely do solid business.

Continuing with their rollout strategies, About Time, 12 Years A Slave and Dallas Buyers Club will all expand to more theatres this weekend. The Richard Curtis rom-com About Time had a disappointing opening last week, earning less than $1.1 million from 175 locations. Universal isn’t expecting much from its sophomore outing: the film is tracking at about $5 million.

On the other hand, 12 Years and Club have proven themselves fierce competitors in both the awards-season race and arthouse market. Steve McQueen’s incredibly well-received slavery drama will open wide in 1,144 theatres, while Matthew McConaughey’s Oscar hopeful will expand to 35 locations.

Will the glitter of 'Gatsby' outshine the second weekend of 'Iron Man 3'?

This weekend, Iron Man 3 will continue to coast back down from its sky-high debut. Given its incredible $175 million opening weekend, even week two is likely to exceed the opening of the overstuffed, glittery The Great Gatsby (3,535 theatres), the latest from director Baz Luhrmann, who specializes in visual excess. It's also Mother's Day on Sunday, and it's likely that this movie will beat Iron Man 3 when families choose Mom's pick. The light wedding comedy Peeples will also stand to benefit from Mother's Day outings.

Critics have been divided about Gatsby. It's currently tracking 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a positive or negative review seems to hinge on the author's opinion of Luhrmann's excess. Our critic Rex Roberts predicts that his take on F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel will "generate a buzz with young audiences," especially since it's required reading in most high school classrooms. "Bold, brazen and splendiferous," it's "gorgeous to watch if you enjoy this sort of spectacle." Whatever the result of the final product, interest in Gatsby is high, and it could reach $40 million.

Craig Robinson from "The Office" stars opposite "Scandal's" Kerry Washington in Peeples (2,041 theatres), a Meet the Parents transported to the milieu of the African-American elite. As a man (Robinson) prepares to propose to his girlfriend (Washington) on her family's gilded turf, he uncovers crazy secrets about the supposedly refined family. They're so outrageous, critic David Noh wonders "how any of them got away
with their behavior for so long: secret, sometimes kinky sex lives;
denied breast augmentation; kleptomania; booze and drug addiction;
and a hidden nocturnal life for the Judge as he prowls the
beach." That's just a hint of the humor in store for viewers. An opening in the $15-20 million would be right on target for the comedy.

After success in limited release, Mud will undergo a second expansion into 854 theatres this week. The Matthew McConaughey-led feature has already earned $5 million, and it could add at least 50% to that total in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see how Gatsby's visual feast went over with audiences, and how much progress Iron Man 3 made towards the $1 billion mark.

'Iron Man 3' debuts with $175 million, second-highest opening ever after 'The Avengers'

With a jackpot opening of $175.3 million, Iron Man 3 was second only to the $200 million opening of The Avengers, which also featured Tony Stark--plus a bunch of other superheroes. Stark, as played by Robert Downey Jr., is clearly the most popular of the bunch, and that was reflected in the box-office returns. Now that the opening is secured, the rest of the run is already a bit of science. Domestically, the film will end up somewhere above $400 million and a bit under $500 million. Overseas, where the sequel has earned over $500 million, total returns could be $700 million or higher--especially since foreign markets like China are expanding. One thing's clear: It's only a matter of time before Iron Man 3 tops $1 billion in returns.

With Iron Man 3 dominating the box office, most other movies dropped sharply. The worst hit were releases with an action, macho-y feel, like Pain & Gain (down 62%), Oblivion (down 67%), and G.I. Joe: Retaliation (down 65%). Family fare did better, with Oz the Great and Powerful actually going up .6% to $1.8 million, and The Croods dropping 37% to $4.2 million.

Specialty fare also had some bright spots. Mud ascended into the top ten, earning $2.1 million in seventh place while dipping just 3% from last week. The Place Beyond the Pines held on in tenth place, accruing $1.2 million as business dropped by half from the previous week.

The Iceman, which is led by Michael Shannon, averaged $23,000 per
screen at four locations, an extremely strong opening that suggests the
indie will have an excellent specialty run.

A documentary for lovers of fashion and Manhattan retailers Bergdorf Goodman, Scatter My Ashes at Bergdorf's averaged $9,800 per screen in four locations. That's a solid opening for an indie doc, but if you were to spend that much at Bergdorf's, it would only be enough to buy a few Birkin bags.

While Iron Man 3 clearly delivered with its blockbuster weekend, a busy May means there will be tough competition ahead that may affect how long the movie plays. The first real competition will be two weeks from now, when Star Trek Into Darkness opens. This Friday, The Great Gatsby will go after an audience seeking a different kind of epic experience, while Tyler Perry-produced Peeples will insert a comedy into the mix.

'Iron Man 3' takes the stage, could pass $150 million opening weekend

No other wide release dares to go up against the strongly armored Iron Man 3  (4,253 theatres). With no competition, the Robert Downey Jr.-led sequel could easily earn over $150 million in a weekend. Last year, The Avengers opened with over $200 million, but that had the added benefit of being super-superhero movie, with fellow franchise players like Thor, Captain America, and The Hulk in the mix. Many reviewers have come out in favor of the action-packed sequel, which has plenty of humor and "marks an exciting return to form for a franchise that had dipped in quality," notes our critic Daniel Eagan. People will likely see this movie not only as continuation of 2010's Iron Man 2, but also of last year's The Avengers. Overseas, the movie has already earned $300 million, an excellent indicator of success. Over 90% of advance sales on Fandango and Movietickets.com are for Iron Man 3, so it's clear this is the most anticipated movie so far this year.

For those who don't like explosions and superhero suits, there's also a strong selection of indies opening this weekend. The "wonderfully droll horror comedy" The Happy House, as described by critic David Noh, will release through First Run in New York City.

Acclaimed Danish director Susanne Bier "refreshes the conventions and clichés of the rom-com" with Love Is All You Need (4 theatese), according to FJI's Erica Abeel. Sparks fly at a wedding, but it's not the couple at the altar--it's the father of the groom (Pierce Brosnan) and the mother of the bride (Trine Dyrholm).

Playing hitman Richard
Kuklinski "with an
unsettling tunnel-vision intensity," Michael Shannon turns in a stellar performance in The Iceman (4 theatres), according to our critic Michael Sauter. Although he thought the movie had flaws, including a lack of "dramatic depth and intensity" compared to the best anti-hero movies, like Taxi Driver and Serpico, Shannon's performance is not one of them. In a leading role, he only confirms his "powerful, often scary
presence as an onscreen character actor."

An update of the Henry James novel What Maisie Knew will open in New York City. Set in the Big Apple, the story centers on a young girl who is shuttled between her self-centered, divorced parents.

On Monday, the big question will be just how high Iron Man 3 can go in his jetpack. $150 million is the insider target figure for a wow-worthy debut.