‘Divergent’ to dive into first place

Young adult novel adaptation Divergent is tracking strong among advanced ticket sales and should easily win the weekend’s top spot. Right now, the film accounts for 80 percent of weekend sales, according to Fandango. Lionsgate/Summit is clearly hoping for another successful franchise in the vein of its Twilight and Hunger Games series. Author Veronica Roth’s trilogy does have a large and devoted fanbase, and Divergent the film apparently has the most Instagram followers ever for a movie. However, mega or even sustained success largely depends upon Divergent’s ability to lure viewers who are unfamiliar with the books. If that’s the case, the film might be in trouble. Roundly poor reviews (38 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) will certainly deter some would-be audience members. Opening weekend should prove very strong, $60 million or so, propelled by the power of the literary faithful. How well Divergent holds from there on out, however, is anyone’s guess.

If Divergent is practically assured first-place standing this weekend, then Muppets Most Wanted will clock in at No. 2.  The follow-up to 2011’s reboot The Muppets opens in 3,194 theatres today. It’s received fairly positive reviews (77 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and, though it doesn’t include The Muppets stars Amy Adams and Jason Segel, it does have Tina Fey as well as Ricky Gervais and Ty Burrell to act as major draws. Whether that’s enough, and whether or not families are ready to move on from Mr. Peabody & Sherman, will largely determine whether this weekend’s second-place champion crosses $25 million.

Smaller releases bowing today include the faith-based film God’s Not Dead (780 theatres), Blood Ties (28 theatres) and Nymph()maniac Vol. 1 (24 theatres). Although Kirk Cameron’s Fireproof was something of a surprise hit in 2008, opening to $6.8 million, more recent Christian films, including The Grace Card, The Ultimate Gift and To Save a Life, opened much softer, earning between $1 and $2 million. In all likelihood, God’s Not Dead will also rake in a smaller pile of earnings, as will Blood Ties, which, for all its star-studded cast (Clive Owen, Billy Crudup, Mila Kunis, Zoe Saldana, Marion Cotillard) has been given little to no exposure and received mostly negative reviews. Nymph()maniac is a tougher one to call: Prurient interest in its subject could drive sales, but the movie has also been available on VOD for several weeks. Some pundits are speculating this is the type of film people are more comfortable watching in their homes, in which case, expect a fairly modest opening for this latest from Lars von Trier.

Finally, specialty juggernaut (funny, considering the director’s thing for miniatures) The Grand Budapest Hotel expands to 304 locations today, and Jason Bateman’s Bad Words screens in 87. The latter opens wide next weekend, on Friday, March 28.

A SPIRITED WEEKEND?

By Sarah Sluis

While not as strong as last week's lineup, this week brings four wide releases and three limited releases to the box office.

Ghost Town (1,505 screens)
Ghost Town features Ricky Gervais, star of the British "Office," as a grumpy dentist.  In a premise simultaneously gallows-humor and gross-out, Gervais has a near-death experience during a colonoscopy.  Upon revival, he can see ghosts, who pester him to tie up their unfinished business.  Reluctantly, he agrees to help ghost Greg Kinnear prevent his wife from remarrying, and in the process falls for the wife.  Gervais is still a niche star stateside, beloved among those who like to claim they got in on hit show "The Office" back when it was an overseas import.  If this film can have a big enough presence opening weekend, I think it will stick around for awhile as word-of-mouth takes over.

Lakeview Terrace (2,464 screens)

Lakeview Terrace takes those neighbor-from-hell horror stories and packages them into a thriller.  A couple moves next door and draws the ire of Samuel L. Jackson, a seemingly upstanding citizen and LAPD Officer.  The conflict escalates from maliciously placed floodlights to slashed tires, and the badge of the officer next door makes calling the cops useless.  Implied in the trailer is the LAPD Officer's discomfort with his neighbors' interracial marriage.  This film looks like a strong shot at number one or number two.

My Best Friend's Girl (2,604 screens)
My Best Friend's Girl offers a permutation on the plot of another Kate Hudson vehicle, How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days.  Dane Cook plays a guy recruited by ex-boyfriends to be an obnoxious date, sending them flying back into the arms of their exes.  He's hired by Jason Biggs to repel Kate Hudson, but the plan backfires as the two fall for each other.  While most romantic comedies seem clearly guy-centric (Saving Silverman) or girl-centric (27 Dresses), My Best Friend's Girl appears to fall in between.  Both Dane Cook and Kate Hudson have star personas that seem tailored to their own sex, so I imagine that pairing them together will draw in a wider audience than a pure Kate Hudson vehicle.  Nevertheless, this film will probably come in behind at least one holdover release, and certainly Lakeview Terrace.

Igor (2,339 screens)

Animated film Igor opens to a market devoid of children's movies�perhaps this will be a reward for kids who have successfully navigated their first couple weeks of school?  Starring John Cusack as the voice of humpback sidekick Igor, the film shows the sidekick breaking away from his unappreciative master and proving he can intelligently design a scientific experiment (a human-like creature!) on his own.

Appaloosa (14 screens), The Duchess (7 screens), and Hounddog (11 screens)
Other smaller releases include Ed Harris' Appaloosa, a traditional, finely rendered Western, and The Duchess, in which Keira Knightley dons yet another costume and tests her star power�this one's on my to-see list.  Lastly, Hounddog, a film about a poor, mistreated Southern girl, starring Dakota Fanning, also releases, with a general critical thumbs-down.  Fanning, however, has proved herself to be a talented actress with a talented agent, and this small film precedes two others that will release in 2008�The Secret Life of Bees, in which she will also play a maligned Southern girl, and Coraline, a 3D animated feature with an Academy run this December.