‘Divergent’ to dive into first place

Young adult novel adaptation Divergent is tracking strong among advanced ticket sales and should easily win the weekend’s top spot. Right now, the film accounts for 80 percent of weekend sales, according to Fandango. Lionsgate/Summit is clearly hoping for another successful franchise in the vein of its Twilight and Hunger Games series. Author Veronica Roth’s trilogy does have a large and devoted fanbase, and Divergent the film apparently has the most Instagram followers ever for a movie. However, mega or even sustained success largely depends upon Divergent’s ability to lure viewers who are unfamiliar with the books. If that’s the case, the film might be in trouble. Roundly poor reviews (38 percent rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) will certainly deter some would-be audience members. Opening weekend should prove very strong, $60 million or so, propelled by the power of the literary faithful. How well Divergent holds from there on out, however, is anyone’s guess.

If Divergent is practically assured first-place standing this weekend, then Muppets Most Wanted will clock in at No. 2.  The follow-up to 2011’s reboot The Muppets opens in 3,194 theatres today. It’s received fairly positive reviews (77 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and, though it doesn’t include The Muppets stars Amy Adams and Jason Segel, it does have Tina Fey as well as Ricky Gervais and Ty Burrell to act as major draws. Whether that’s enough, and whether or not families are ready to move on from Mr. Peabody & Sherman, will largely determine whether this weekend’s second-place champion crosses $25 million.

Smaller releases bowing today include the faith-based film God’s Not Dead (780 theatres), Blood Ties (28 theatres) and Nymph()maniac Vol. 1 (24 theatres). Although Kirk Cameron’s Fireproof was something of a surprise hit in 2008, opening to $6.8 million, more recent Christian films, including The Grace Card, The Ultimate Gift and To Save a Life, opened much softer, earning between $1 and $2 million. In all likelihood, God’s Not Dead will also rake in a smaller pile of earnings, as will Blood Ties, which, for all its star-studded cast (Clive Owen, Billy Crudup, Mila Kunis, Zoe Saldana, Marion Cotillard) has been given little to no exposure and received mostly negative reviews. Nymph()maniac is a tougher one to call: Prurient interest in its subject could drive sales, but the movie has also been available on VOD for several weeks. Some pundits are speculating this is the type of film people are more comfortable watching in their homes, in which case, expect a fairly modest opening for this latest from Lars von Trier.

Finally, specialty juggernaut (funny, considering the director’s thing for miniatures) The Grand Budapest Hotel expands to 304 locations today, and Jason Bateman’s Bad Words screens in 87. The latter opens wide next weekend, on Friday, March 28.

‘Lone Survivor’ stands tall at no. 1

Looks like audiences agree with Lone Survivor’s marketing team, which has been heralding the Afghanistan combat drama as the best war film since Saving Private Ryan.  It certainly made one of the strongest debuts among its genre cohorts, pulling in higher opening-weekend numbers than both Zero Dark Thirty ($24.4 million) and Black Hawk Down ($28.6 million). Survivor’s weekend haul of $38.5 million also far exceeded Universal’s conservative estimates – the studio had the movie tracking somewhere in the high teens – and, most impressively, has earned the film the title of second-most impressive January bow. The only other movie to have had a stronger January opening was Cloverfield, which grossed $40.1 million in 2008.

Many pundits are attributing the film’s success to a savvy promotional campaign that highlights the real-life heroism of its protagonist SEALs, while downplaying the fraught political implications that still surround the American invasion abroad. Whatever the initial appeal, critics and audiences alike are standing firm behind the movie, which has earned a rare A+ CinemaScore rating. The Mark Wahlberg-starrer should continue to hold strong in the weeks ahead.

It was an older crowd that helped lead Lone Survivor to victory over the weekend (the film’s demographic breakdown was 57% over the age of 30, as well as 57% male), while younger, and one would assume many repeat, viewers were (still) lining up for Frozen. The animated box-office behemoth has earned $317.7 million to date, and can now boast a Golden Globe win for the year’s Best Animated Feature to boot.

It’s unlikely the aforementioned honor will surprise anyone who’s leant an attentive ear to industry buzz of late, but the continued ascent of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street might. After getting off to an OK start at the box office, the comedy/drama has steadily risen among the weekend’s rankings. Likely benefitting from continued controversy surrounding its debauched subjects, Wolf earned $9 this weekend to bump its overall gross to $78.6 million. Star Leonardo DiCaprio’s Golden Globe win last night may give the movie an additional boost this coming weekend. Estimates surrounding the film’s eventual total cume continue to expand: As of this morning, general consensus has Wolf topping out at well over $100 million by the time it leaves theatres.

David O. Russell’s crowd-pleaser American Hustle has already reached that milestone, officially crossing the $100-million mark as of yesterday. Another big Golden Globe winner (stars Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence both took home statuettes last night, and the film as a whole won for Best Musical or Comedy), Hustle grossed $8.6 million this weekend. The film tied with The Legend of Hercules for fourth place. That amounts to another strong showing for Hustle, but an underwhelming debut for the latest sword-and-sandal epic. Hopefully, The Rock’s take on the oft-adapted Greek legend will fare better this summer.

In fifth place, August: Osage County reaped $7.3 million from 905 locations. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones performed as expected, slipping roughly 66% to earn $6.3 million. It remains on track to become the franchise’s least successful offering yet.

Unfortunately for specialty enthusiasts, two critically favored films also underperformed. Her earned $5.4 million, which, while in itself not a terrible figure, is nonetheless fairly weak considering the number of theatres in which the film screened (1,729). And although Inside Llewyn Davis seemed to connect with coastal audiences, averaging about $100,000 per theatre when it opened in NY and LA, it struggled to find a wider viewership. From 729 locations, Davis grossed just over $1 million. Let’s see if the continued onward march of awards season can do anything for these two struggling originals.

‘Hobbit’ leads holiday charge, contributes to record b.o.

Five new films may have opened on Christmas day, but it seems audiences preferred to seek out known successes, rather than take a chance on novel fare. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug won the weekend for the third week in a row with its $29.9 million haul, while Disney’s hit Frozen, now in its fifth week, skated past last weekend’s tough competitor American Hustle as well as Anchorman 2 to earn the second highest gross ($28.8 million). Though Smaug continues to track behind last year’s Hobbit prequel, it nonetheless joins Gravity as the only two films this year to have retained their No. 1 standing for three consecutive weekends. As for Frozen, which has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations, it boasted the third highest  fifth-weekend gross ever, just behind the $30 million Titanic earned its fifth weekend in theatres, and Avatar’s $42.8 million.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues chuckled its way to the No. 3 slot with $20.2 million. So far, the comedy has earned $83.7 million domestically. Will Ferrell’s long-gestating sequel should easily surpass the first Anchorman’s $85.7 million cume within the next few days.

In fourth place, David O. Russell’s American Hustle made like stars Amy Adams and Bradley Cooper and danced its way to a cool $19.6 million. The film has so far enjoyed (almost) universal critical acclaim and positive word-of-mouth. More awards nominations seem imminent, which should significantly boost its already impressive $60 million cume. Pundits believe an overall take of $100 million is likely.

The only new release to have landed within the weekend’s Top 5 – and then just barely – was Martin Scorsese’s much hyped The Wolf of Wall Street. The Leonardo DiCaprio-starrer earned $18.5 million, or $34.3 million for the five-day holiday spread. There are those who believe the film’s low Cinemascore rating of a “C” bodes poorly for its continued box office success, predicting a quick flameout within the next week or two. Others, however, think Street’s controversial depiction of stunted adolescence/hubristic debauchery will continue to draw viewers, especially if the rumors prove true and the film earns an Oscar nod or several.

Saving Mr. Banks, which has struggled to find its audience these past few weeks, finally clicked with holiday moviegoers. The true story of how Walt Disney successfully won the film rights to Mary Poppins from persnickety author P.L. Travers earned $14 million, a great uptick of 50%.

Unfortunately, with the exception of The Wolf of Wall Street, the full story of the holiday’s new releases isn’t as uplifting. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty did OK business with its $13 million weekend gross and $25.6 million five-day haul. Those figures are respectable, though they pale in comparison with past Ben Stiller hits Night at the Museum and the Meet the Parents movies. Still, at least Stiller and his collaborators weren’t part of the very, very expensive 47 Ronin, directed by and starring Keanu Reeves, which tanked with $9.9 million ($20.6 million over the five days).  They also had nothing to do with Grudge Match, a flop with $7.3 million ($13.4 million five-day), nor, thankfully, with Justin Bieber’s docu-bomb, Believe ($2 million/$4.3 million). As Mitty himself is well aware, it’s all about perspective.

Even given the aforementioned string of less-than-boffo bows, though, the day’s big news is all about 2013’s box-office success. Final numbers have yet to be tallied, but as of yesterday the domestic box office was just $1.6 million shy of the $10.837 billion record set in 2012. With today and tomorrow still to go, it’s safe to assume 2013 will be another one for the books.

Meryl Streep and Tina Fey are 'Mommy & Me'

By Sarah Sluis

What? Is that another original project I'm hearing about? No doubt inspired by the success of Julie & Julia, Sony has put together another movie intent on replicating the success of the foodie, women-centered adaptation. Entitled Mommy & Me, the project will center on the ups and downs of the mother-daughter relationship. As a woman's film, specifically a female comedy, the movie, will have a narrower appeal than

Julie & Julia, which captured the attention of food-loving audiences. However, the movie will most likely appeal to both old, middle-aged, and young audiences, and have a long-tail run. Both Julia & Julia and Tina Fey's Date Night had small opening weekends compared to their eventual cumulative grosses, so pairing these two actresses together will likely lead to another robust run at the box office.

Stanley Tucci may be better-known to mainstream audiences for his roles alongside Streep in Julie & Julia and The Devil Wears Prada (oh--and for playing a rapist and murderer in The Lovely Bones), but for this film he will be behind the director's chair. He last directed Blind Date, in which he also had a leading role. Since he usually acts in the films he directs, I wouldn't be surprised to see him cast in a supporting role.

Provided the movie is quality--and older audiences and female audiences are both known for the attention to quality (Twilight notwithstanding)--Sony has a leg up on this movie from the get-go. Female audiences are underserved at the box office, a situation that has improved in recent years. Most "female" films are romantic comedies that focus on dating and stylized, artificial gag situations. Movies that are based in reality, and comedies that don't have a romance front-and-center are rare. For that reason, Mommy & Me has a built-in audience ready to see this "unusual" film that doesn't involve, say, a woman going to extreme lengths to get married (like Leap Year, which involved a woman running around Ireland, trying to find her boyfriend to propose to him on the "only" day she can, February 29th). Now when does it come out?

'The Fighter,' 'Don't Be Afraid of the Dark' round out casts for summer shoots

By Sarah Sluis

When someone's career starts to take off, you often expect them to move away from supporting parts and take on only leading roles. Not Amy Adams. She followed up her Oscar-nominated supporting role in Junebug with a mainstream Disney comedy, Enchanted, but returned for another supporting role in Doubt (Oscar nomination #2). With a romantic comedy, Leap Year, under wraps, she's signed up for another supporting role, as Mark Wahlberg's love interest in The Fighter. The biopic has been circulating for some time before it finally nailed down its two leads earlier this year. Christian Bale and Wahlberg will star as two brothers. The eldest (Bale), who has drugs and prison time on his resume, trains his younger brother to a boxing title. Melissa Leo, who was nominated last year for Lead Actress, will play Bale and Wahlberg's mother. David O. Russell is directing, and the film will start shooting in Lowell, MA, in July. With its talented cast of actors, biographical subject, and a talented director, this looks like a project angling to be one of the ten Best Picture nominees at the 2010 Oscars.

Here's an interesting combination: A 1973 teleplay as source material + the mysterious wife of Tom Cruise as star + a Guillermo Del Toro protege as director. Put it together, and you've got Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, which will begin shooting next month in New Zealand. I was disappointed that Katie Holmes didn't reprise her role as Rachel in The Dark Knight, and took it as a sign that she was swearing off the movie business, so I'm excited to see her turn up headlining another project. Never underestimate the lasting audience loyalty that can result from starring in a teen nighttime soap like "Dawson's Creek." Del Toro mentored Juan Antonia Bayona on the Spanish-language horror film The Orphanage (2007), to spectacular results, and he'll be taking on a similar role with Troy Nixey. The first-time feature director will be working from a screenplay co-written by Del Toro, and the New Zealand location was chosen for its proximity to Australia, where Del Toro is working on The Hobbit. Del Toro is also producing, ensuring he'll be able to keep a watchful eye on the film's progress. The film's plot seems fairly typical, so it will be up to Nixey and Del Toro to create that tingly atmosphere of foreboding. The plot follows a girl (Bailee Madison) who moves in with her father (Guy Pearce) and his girlfriend (Holmes), only to discover demonic creatures that first enchant, and then horrify her. The girlfriend also becomes aware of their presence, but the father holds out, refusing to believe. Horror that tries to be more than just a screamer is one of my great pleasures, so I'm always happy to see projects like this in the pipeline.