'Rio' soars to $40 million

By Sarah Sluis

For the first time in 2011, the box office was up from 2010 year-over-year. Back in January and even in February, the holdover success of 2009 release Avatar was to blame for the lower 2011 numbers, but then the excuses ran out. However, 2011's lower grosses may also be related to last year's initial crush of 3D films such as Alice in Wonderland, which drew many audiences interested in experiencing the extra dimension.

The CG-animated Rio easily grabbed the first-place perch, earning $40 million. Although the number is lower than other Blue Sky Animation movies, including 2002's Ice Age, the growing receipts from foreign markets make up for any softness in the U.S. In just two weeks, Rio's already earned $128 million abroad. Many U.S. students are on spring break this week, which should make the upcoming weekdays especially profitable.

The chorus of shrieks just wasn't that loud for Scream 4, which finished with $19.2 million, on the low side of expectations. In comparison, Scream 3 earned $34.7 million its opening weekend, the equivalent of more than $50 million today. Viewers over 25, familiar with the franchise, turned out in force, but the sequel had trouble attracting audiences in the 17-25 age range. Females, too, voted against the movie, comprising just 52% of the audience compared to the 60-70% that normally turns out. Scream 4 is part of a planned second trilogy, but these low numbers could grind the franchise to a halt.

With $3.9 million, the historical drama The Conspirator performed in line with expectations. By releasing in just 707 locations, its theatres were just as packed as Scream 4's. With its U.S.-specific subject, however, foreign prospects will be slim, which won't help offset the movie's reported $25 million budget.

Soul Surfer pulled ahead of Hanna during the films' second week. The inspirational sports tale dipped 30% to $7.4 million, while Hanna dove 40% to $7.3 million. Distributor FilmDistrict, which handles Soul Surfer, had another win with Insidious. The horror movie fell just 26% to $6.8 million, continuing its trend of low drops, which is atypical for scary movies.

Literary adaptation Atlas Shrugged: Part I finished in 14^th place with $1.6 million and a per-screen average on par with The Conspirator and Scream 4. Critics generally despised the movie but it remains to be seen if viewers felt the same. The tea party-leaning movie will be one to watch in coming weeks.

Specialty picture The Double Hour, running on goodwill from positive reviews (like this one from The New York Times), opened to a $15,000 per-screen average, a solid debut.

This Friday, Reese Witherspoon and Robert Pattison run the circus in Water for Elephants. Tyler Perry strikes again with Madea's Big Happy Family, and the Disneynature wildlife documentary African Cats will stalk family audiences.

'Rio' should fly to the top, with 'Scream 4' close behind

By Sarah Sluis

On the heels of its record-breaking weekend overseas, Rio (3,826 theatres) will open stateside and ruffle the feathers of competing family flick Hop. The CG talking animal flick shows off Rio de Janeiro's beaches and favelas, leading critic Daniel Eagan to predict that "the action, slapstick, and irresistible images of Rio itself will delight children." The film's 3D should boost the box office, but it also adds to the story winningly, by "saving the big effects for special occasions like a fly-around of the Christ the Redeemer statue" and an "encounter with a table saw." Fox should expect at least $30 million this weekend, along with sizeable weekday returns from Spring-breaking kids.

The legendary Scream franchise returns with Scream 4 (3,305 theatres), the first of a planned trilogy of sequels. Veterans of the franchise (Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette) are paired with younger stars (Emma Roberts, Hayden Panettiere), a combination that will be sure to appeal to those who saw the first franchise in theatres as well as younger audiences that discovered the series on video. The movie's self-referential tone has gained some fans among critics, but the New York Times' Mike Hale is not one of them. "Scream 4 replaces the values of storytelling and suspense with the value of being in on the joke," he concludes. This revival of a decade-old franchise should grab at least $20 million at the box office, reflecting a smart move by parent distributor Weinstein Co.

Focusing on the trial of Mary Surratt for her role in the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, The Conspirator (707 theatres) has a "relevancy to recent happenings [which] gives an added frisson of
interest to the story," notes critic Shirley Sealy. With a cast led by Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Tom Wilkinson and Kevin Kline, director Robert Redford "puts together some fine actors giving exceptionally fine performances." This "emotionally powerful story" should crack the top ten with a number in the low single-digit millions.

Targeting those subscribing to tea party politics, Atlas Shrugged: Part I (300 theatres) could be a surprise hit, or, as THR predicts, a flop. Variety notes that the movie is accounting for 15% of advance sales on Fandango. Never underestimate a group's ability to mobilize.

For those living in New York City, the Danish war documentary Armadillo (1 theatre) offers a gripping look into life as a soldier in Afghanistan. I spoke highly of the movie yesterday, and it's a must for fans of Restrepo.

On Monday, we'll see if Rio was able to soar above the $30 million mark and if Scream 4 scared both veteran and newbie audiences.