Can Blu fly past the Captain?

Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will both vie for the top slot at the box office this Friday-Sunday. The former is one of the weekend’s new major releases and the follow-up to the popular Rio, an animated kids’ film about a pair of endangered macaws (voiced by Jesse Eisenberg and Anne Hathaway).  When it opened in spring of 2011, Rio grossed almost $40 million. Its successor is currently tracking in the high-$30-to-low-$40-millions range, prompting many pundits to speculate it should match, possibly even better, the original. If either proves to be the case, Rio 2 will give holdover Captain America: The Winter Soldier a run for its sky-high pile of dough. Given positive critical reviews and smiling word-of-mouth, The Winter Soldier is expected to hold well. However, comic book movies often plummet their second weekend in theatres – Iron Man 3 dipped 58 percent, for example – so the title of Weekend’s Top Earner is really up for grabs.

Beginning today and with a slightly smaller platform than Rio 2, which opens in 3,948 locations, the latest sports film to star Kevin Costner, Draft Day, will screen in 2,781 theatres. The movie gives a fictionalized behind-the-scenes look at the unpublicized maneuvering that takes place in the lead-up to the NFL draft. Costner is firmly ensconced in familiar territory here, playing the American underdog everyman fighting for good amidst the corrupt milieu of an American sports industry. Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and Tin Cup are among Costner’s best-loved movies, and Draft Day looks to repeat the old-fashioned though nonetheless satisfying story arc characteristic of those films. Will audiences go for Costner’s brand of comfort? Reviews for Draft Day aren’t great, and recent sports movies haven’t opened very strong: Moneyball, which is basically the baseball version of Day, had great buzz going for it and still only managed to rake in $19.5 million over its opening weekend. Distributor Lionsgate believes Draft Day will gross in the low teens.

The last new major release to open this weekend is also the first horror offering since January’s Devil’s Due. Oculus will screen in 2,648 theatres. The flick has producer Jason Blum (the Paranormal Activity movies) behind it, and has been pretty well reviewed, though box-office expectations are modest. Returns around $11 or $12 million would be considered solid.

Finally, the specialty realm has two new offerings of its own in Joe, starring Nicolas Cage and directed by cult favorite David Gordon Green, and Cuban Fury, a salsa comedy starring Nick Frost and Rashida Jones. The latter is playing in 79 theatres while the former will start off its B.O. run in 48 locations.

'Rio' narrowly swoops over 'Madea's Big Happy Family'

By Sarah Sluis

The round-the-world hit Rio enjoyed its second week at the top stateside. The 3D, CG-animated tale of a bird going back to his homeland dipped 32% to $26.8 million, landing just above Madea's Big Happy Family.

Tyler Perry's latest Madea comedy opened to $25.7 million. The Madea movies have opened anywhere from $20.1 million (Meet the Browns) to an out-of-the-park $41 million (Madea Goes to Jail), so this number falls near the average. Like most Perry movies, the audience was primarily black, female, and over 25�perhaps these viewers see shades of their own grandmothers in the comically exaggerated Madea?

Water for Elephants opened above expectations, debuting to $17.5 million. Despite the presence of Twilight heartthrob Robert Pattinson, the audience skewed more toward Reese Witherspoon fans: 70% of the audience was over 25, and the same percentage was female.

The Earth Day release African Cats opened to $6.4 million, slightly better than the $6 million open of last year's Disneynature release Oceans. These nature documentaries have played very well over the long haul, so Cats should total at least $20 million before it leaves theatres.

Another seasonal release, Hop, added 16% from last week thanks to its proximity to Easter Sunday, ending with $12.6 million. The CG/live-action hybrid earned its highest numbers the Friday and Saturday before Easter, dropping on the holiday itself, when kids were presumably occupied with Easter egg hunts and bunny visits of their own.

Despite all the product placements and tie-ins, Director Morgan Spurlock's documentary POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold had a solid, not stellar, $7,500 per-screen open. However, the 18-location release was a bit wide compared to most specialty releases, so perhaps it will hold well in coming weeks. In comparison, another Sony Pictures Classics release, Incendies, opened to $18,200 per screen, but only had three screens to fill with ticket-buyers.

The biggest mover-and-shaker among specialty releases was the ten-week-old doc I Am, which went up 572% as it added ten locations. I'm sure director Tom Shadyac's April 20^th appearance on "Oprah" had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Meek's Cutoff is also performing well, going up 180% as it tripled the number of theatres in its three-week-old release. The Oregon Trail drama earned a $6,500 per-screen average.

This Friday, car actioner Fast Five will lead the pack, followed by Disney's bid for teens, Prom, horror comedy Dylan Dog: Dead of Night, and animated sequel Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil.

'Rio' soars to $40 million

By Sarah Sluis

For the first time in 2011, the box office was up from 2010 year-over-year. Back in January and even in February, the holdover success of 2009 release Avatar was to blame for the lower 2011 numbers, but then the excuses ran out. However, 2011's lower grosses may also be related to last year's initial crush of 3D films such as Alice in Wonderland, which drew many audiences interested in experiencing the extra dimension.

The CG-animated Rio easily grabbed the first-place perch, earning $40 million. Although the number is lower than other Blue Sky Animation movies, including 2002's Ice Age, the growing receipts from foreign markets make up for any softness in the U.S. In just two weeks, Rio's already earned $128 million abroad. Many U.S. students are on spring break this week, which should make the upcoming weekdays especially profitable.

The chorus of shrieks just wasn't that loud for Scream 4, which finished with $19.2 million, on the low side of expectations. In comparison, Scream 3 earned $34.7 million its opening weekend, the equivalent of more than $50 million today. Viewers over 25, familiar with the franchise, turned out in force, but the sequel had trouble attracting audiences in the 17-25 age range. Females, too, voted against the movie, comprising just 52% of the audience compared to the 60-70% that normally turns out. Scream 4 is part of a planned second trilogy, but these low numbers could grind the franchise to a halt.

With $3.9 million, the historical drama The Conspirator performed in line with expectations. By releasing in just 707 locations, its theatres were just as packed as Scream 4's. With its U.S.-specific subject, however, foreign prospects will be slim, which won't help offset the movie's reported $25 million budget.

Soul Surfer pulled ahead of Hanna during the films' second week. The inspirational sports tale dipped 30% to $7.4 million, while Hanna dove 40% to $7.3 million. Distributor FilmDistrict, which handles Soul Surfer, had another win with Insidious. The horror movie fell just 26% to $6.8 million, continuing its trend of low drops, which is atypical for scary movies.

Literary adaptation Atlas Shrugged: Part I finished in 14^th place with $1.6 million and a per-screen average on par with The Conspirator and Scream 4. Critics generally despised the movie but it remains to be seen if viewers felt the same. The tea party-leaning movie will be one to watch in coming weeks.

Specialty picture The Double Hour, running on goodwill from positive reviews (like this one from The New York Times), opened to a $15,000 per-screen average, a solid debut.

This Friday, Reese Witherspoon and Robert Pattison run the circus in Water for Elephants. Tyler Perry strikes again with Madea's Big Happy Family, and the Disneynature wildlife documentary African Cats will stalk family audiences.

'Rio' should fly to the top, with 'Scream 4' close behind

By Sarah Sluis

On the heels of its record-breaking weekend overseas, Rio (3,826 theatres) will open stateside and ruffle the feathers of competing family flick Hop. The CG talking animal flick shows off Rio de Janeiro's beaches and favelas, leading critic Daniel Eagan to predict that "the action, slapstick, and irresistible images of Rio itself will delight children." The film's 3D should boost the box office, but it also adds to the story winningly, by "saving the big effects for special occasions like a fly-around of the Christ the Redeemer statue" and an "encounter with a table saw." Fox should expect at least $30 million this weekend, along with sizeable weekday returns from Spring-breaking kids.

The legendary Scream franchise returns with Scream 4 (3,305 theatres), the first of a planned trilogy of sequels. Veterans of the franchise (Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette) are paired with younger stars (Emma Roberts, Hayden Panettiere), a combination that will be sure to appeal to those who saw the first franchise in theatres as well as younger audiences that discovered the series on video. The movie's self-referential tone has gained some fans among critics, but the New York Times' Mike Hale is not one of them. "Scream 4 replaces the values of storytelling and suspense with the value of being in on the joke," he concludes. This revival of a decade-old franchise should grab at least $20 million at the box office, reflecting a smart move by parent distributor Weinstein Co.

Focusing on the trial of Mary Surratt for her role in the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, The Conspirator (707 theatres) has a "relevancy to recent happenings [which] gives an added frisson of
interest to the story," notes critic Shirley Sealy. With a cast led by Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Tom Wilkinson and Kevin Kline, director Robert Redford "puts together some fine actors giving exceptionally fine performances." This "emotionally powerful story" should crack the top ten with a number in the low single-digit millions.

Targeting those subscribing to tea party politics, Atlas Shrugged: Part I (300 theatres) could be a surprise hit, or, as THR predicts, a flop. Variety notes that the movie is accounting for 15% of advance sales on Fandango. Never underestimate a group's ability to mobilize.

For those living in New York City, the Danish war documentary Armadillo (1 theatre) offers a gripping look into life as a soldier in Afghanistan. I spoke highly of the movie yesterday, and it's a must for fans of Restrepo.

On Monday, we'll see if Rio was able to soar above the $30 million mark and if Scream 4 scared both veteran and newbie audiences.

Animated pic 'Rio' loads up on promotional tie-ins

By Sarah Sluis

Lately, the animated box office has reminded me of a nursery rhyme (by Longfellow!) I used to hear as a girl:

And when she was good
She was very very good
But when she was bad she was horrid

The horrid? Mars Needs Moms, the motion-capture film that resulted in Disney shutting down its production company, ImageMovers, not just after the movie flopped, but a few months before it even released. Disney must have known it had a stinker on its hands, and its $150+ million investment was rewarded with just $7 million its opening weekend.

The very very good? By all indicators, Rio is going to do very well. First there were the SuperBowl ads featuring a tie-in to the smartphone game of the moment, Angry Birds. Then there were plans for a videogame. Today, at the top of Variety, is an article detailing the 82 brands Fox signed on as promotional partners for Rio, the most that have ever been attached to a single film. With all this side revenue, the box office for Rio just becomes another part of the picture. The tie-ins include not only the typical McDonald's Happy Meal toys, but custom paint colors (Benjamin Moore), blue-filled Oreos, Chiquita ads, car manufacturers, Gap, and more.

I'm not knocking tie-ins, but it's worth noting that the amount of money they can bring in has affected movie studios' production strategies. Disney, for example, has explicitly stated it's focusing on fewer, better films that can be leveraged across all its areas of business--from tie-ins to direct-to-video sequels to videogames to stuffed animals. It's caused some unusual side effects, too. AMC and Regal, frustrated with the declining amount of movies made by the biggies (as well as studios putting films on DVD closer and closer to their theatrical release dates), have gotten into the movie distribution business themselves. That's a new one. Good companies will create great product and then find a way to promote it, not the other way around. From what I've seen of Rio, the movie is sure to entertain both kids and adults, and is comparable in quality to the best animated films.

There's another golden egg of optimism hidden within the Variety piece, which opens with an expression of disbelief: Rio "isn't an obvious magnet for marketers" because it "isn't based on a popular property." If original ideas can generate this kind of advance excitement, maybe Hollywood can feel more confident developing new ideas, especially since the summer of 2011 looks like it's shaping up to be the summer of sequels and comic book heroes.

Early preview of 'Rio' reveals charming avian adventure

By Sarah Sluis

A running plot point in talking animal movies seems to be captivity--either being thrust into it or escaping from its clutches. In Finding Nemo, for example, it was utterly bizarre to see Nemo in a dentist's aquarium after spending most of the movie at sea: the two worlds were so at odds with each other. I'm told that Madagascar tackles a similar theme, and in a way aren't the toys in Toy Story captive to their owners? Rio, the latest from Blue Sky Studios (which was behind the Ice Age films), also takes on the theme of captivity, pairing up one captive blue macaw with another raised in the wild.

Director Carlos Saldahna, who had directed or co-directed the three Ice Age films, as well as Robots, introduced short clips of the 3D animal adventure, which comes out on April 15, at a New York preview event. The movie centers on Blu (voiced by Jesse Eisenberg, showing off his knack for speedy dialogue), a rare bird who was captured before he learned how to fly, and grew up with a loving bookstore owner in Minnesota (Leslie Mann). When it's discovered he's one of the last blue macaws on earth, Blu is transported to Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, to mate with a rare female, the recently captured Jewel (Anne Hathaway).

As expected in an adventure tale, there are plenty of twists and turns and encounters with characters both dastardly and kind. The action sequences had a nice dash of comedy in them that has a surprisingly universal appeal. I also predict a run on pet stores (bet on macaw futures!) due to an opening sequence that shows the symbiotic morning routine of bird and owner (think Doc's breakfast machine in Back to the Future).

Then there's the below-the-equator setting. Saldahna, a native of Brazil, talked up how the film makes use of Rio's landmarks, music, national pastime (football) and famous festival, Carnaval. For example, the film's opening dance number involving hundreds of birds is set to a samba beat and the lyrics were originally recorded in Portuguese. The birds' movements had the feel of Carnaval performers (a bit ironic given that these performers are often clad in feathers themselves).

CG Animation has flourished under Pixar and now DreamWorks Animation, which released the Oscar-nominated How to Train Your Dragon in 2010. What I saw of Rio doesn't have quite the visual twinkle, complicated lighting, and extra polish that I've seen in Disney, Pixar, or DreamWorks Animation--but it also doesn't have their kind of budgets or manpower, a fact pointed out to me by Saldahna, who also counts Dragon as one of his favorites last year. What Rio has, from what I saw, is an adventure tale with compelling characters, plot, and clear (not groundbreaking--again, that goes to those with the big budgets) visuals. And really, if you're a kid, you're going to notice the fact that a bird bounces off a woman's bikini bottom, not the texture of the fabric or the shadow reflected in the sand. With its Spring Break/pre-Easter time slot, Rio has the kind of time slot that demands blockbuster results. Food for thought: Each of the Ice Age films approached, but didn't top, $200 million domestically, but foreign grosses went up $200 million with each sequel ($206 milion, $460 million, $690 million).