'Rio' should fly to the top, with 'Scream 4' close behind

By Sarah Sluis

On the heels of its record-breaking weekend overseas, Rio (3,826 theatres) will open stateside and ruffle the feathers of competing family flick Hop. The CG talking animal flick shows off Rio de Janeiro's beaches and favelas, leading critic Daniel Eagan to predict that "the action, slapstick, and irresistible images of Rio itself will delight children." The film's 3D should boost the box office, but it also adds to the story winningly, by "saving the big effects for special occasions like a fly-around of the Christ the Redeemer statue" and an "encounter with a table saw." Fox should expect at least $30 million this weekend, along with sizeable weekday returns from Spring-breaking kids.

The legendary Scream franchise returns with Scream 4 (3,305 theatres), the first of a planned trilogy of sequels. Veterans of the franchise (Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, David Arquette) are paired with younger stars (Emma Roberts, Hayden Panettiere), a combination that will be sure to appeal to those who saw the first franchise in theatres as well as younger audiences that discovered the series on video. The movie's self-referential tone has gained some fans among critics, but the New York Times' Mike Hale is not one of them. "Scream 4 replaces the values of storytelling and suspense with the value of being in on the joke," he concludes. This revival of a decade-old franchise should grab at least $20 million at the box office, reflecting a smart move by parent distributor Weinstein Co.

Focusing on the trial of Mary Surratt for her role in the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, The Conspirator (707 theatres) has a "relevancy to recent happenings [which] gives an added frisson of
interest to the story," notes critic Shirley Sealy. With a cast led by Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Tom Wilkinson and Kevin Kline, director Robert Redford "puts together some fine actors giving exceptionally fine performances." This "emotionally powerful story" should crack the top ten with a number in the low single-digit millions.

Targeting those subscribing to tea party politics, Atlas Shrugged: Part I (300 theatres) could be a surprise hit, or, as THR predicts, a flop. Variety notes that the movie is accounting for 15% of advance sales on Fandango. Never underestimate a group's ability to mobilize.

For those living in New York City, the Danish war documentary Armadillo (1 theatre) offers a gripping look into life as a soldier in Afghanistan. I spoke highly of the movie yesterday, and it's a must for fans of Restrepo.

On Monday, we'll see if Rio was able to soar above the $30 million mark and if Scream 4 scared both veteran and newbie audiences.

Will 'Beverly Hills Chihuahua' bark its way to the top?

By Sarah Sluis

It's another crowded week at the box office, and early yapping from moviegoers places the decidedly silly

Beverly Hills Chihuahua (3,215 screens) as the one to beat, with tracking reports estimating a $30 million estimated take, which I predict will be on the high side.

This week brings us two ideological lampoons (Religulous and An American Carol) and two young urban comedies (Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist and How to Lose Friends and Alienate People).  Religulous (502 screens) has agnostic Bill Maher taking on religious dogma, while American Carol (1,639 screens) has conservative David Zucker lampooning Michael Moore while taking on politics and patriotism--leaving agnostic conservatives in for a tough viewing decision.  Nick & Norah's Infinite
Playlist (2,421 screens), a "one crazy night" teen film, might see some overlap with How to Lose Friends and Alienate People (1,750 screens), as those in the twenty-something range debate whether they want to relive a bit of high school or look ahead to a loosely defined workplace/ambition comedy (I think Nick & Norah will win).  A.O. Scott called Nick & Norah "like Martin Scorsese's After Hours filtered through the high school sensibility of John Hughes, or Richard Linklater's Before Sunrise remade for Nickelodeon."  Conversely, How to Lose Friends is expected to have paltry returns and make it up on the DVD market.  Say no more.

Ambitious literary adaptation Blindness (1,690 screens), the rare film that combines the thrill of depicting a worldwide apocalypse with arthouse allegory (except, of course, that this description fits upcoming release The Road) has been slowed by disappointed critics that wish director Fernando Meirelles could have awed them as much as he did in City of God.  The film will have to count on forgiving audiences giving the thumbs up to their friends in order to do well at the box office.

Flash of Genius also looks to be a feel-good family picture in a little man vs. the auto industry fight over his invention of the intermittent windshield wiper--except it isn't, and will likely be a victim of the crowded weekend.  With a PG-13 rating, and reviews calling out the film for its slow pace, families will likely opt for Chihuahua, or one of the sneak previews of next week's PG-rated sports drama The Express.

Arthouse western Appaloosa expands to 1,045 screens this weekend, and another little film, Jonathan Demme's Rachel Getting Married, opens on nine screens.  Anne Hathaway gives the film a high profile, and it's a brilliant career move on her part to break out from her Disney-manicured image.  The film itself has a meandering view of the wedding, with an unusual amount of musical interludes coloring the white suburban house with a bit of bohemia.  The eccentricity is played out without question, but in one final dancing scene (featuring an approximation of belly and can-can dancers and West African beats) I couldn't help but think of how this scene would fit into another film altogether--say the horrified looks of the Wedding Crashers.

Along with these new releases, holdover Eagle Eye, only in its second week, will certainly stay in the top five, while Burn After Reading, four weeks into its run, will probably be bumped down a few places.