'42' should hit a triple while 'Scary Movie 5' may not even get on base

Finally, an adult-leaning picture that doesn't involve car chases, mobsters, or kidnapping. 42 (3,003  theatres) is one of the first dramas to release this year that aims to connect with audiences in search of quality. Baseball fans, history buffs, and African-Americans (or any

combination of the three) should also be among the viewers turning out this weekend. The question is whether the idea of seeing Jackie Robinson on the big screen will outweigh the poor box office precedents for this picture. Recent baseball pictures (including Moneyball and Benchwarmers ) just haven't opened above $20 million. Of course, if you look way back, you have both A League of Their Own, which earned over $100 million back in 1992, and Field of Dreams, which earned $64 million in 1989. In spirit, those are closer to 42. However, the most recent story of triumph in a predominantly white space, the flying movie Red Tails, didn't even cross $50 million. It's a mixed bag out there. Many predict an opening of $20 million, but I could see the movie going even higher. 42 gives a saintly portrait of Robinson, which doesn't necessarily make for high drama, but the inspiring, feel-good story could have audiences coming back due to positive word-of-mouth. Despite its flaws, it's one of the best wide releases to come out this year, and I'm rooting for Robinson and 42.

Scary Movie 5 (3,402 theatres) is back from the dead, and this time Lindsay Lohan, Charlie
Sheen, and Ashley Tisdale are among the stars in this horror parody franchise. Scary Movie 4 came out a good six years ago, and such a long lag between sequels is dicey. It's most likely that the release will fall flat, opening under $20 million.

Two specialty releases are scaling up. After debuting last week to a $32,000 per-screen average, Trance will expand into 438 locations. The Place Beyond the Pines will go from 30 to 514 locations in its third
week. Pines will likely earn at least $1 million in the expanded release, while Trance should be somewhere in the mid-six figures.

Writer/director Terence Malick, who is famous for taking years to edit films, has a surprise: another film just two years after his last, The Tree of Life. Ben Affleck, Olga Kurylenko and Rachel McAdams star in To the Wonder (5 locations), which FJI critic Chris Barsanti describes as "a
floating beauty of a philosophical love story that can’t yank its
head out of the wispy clouds of meaning long enough to consider the
humans mucking about on terra firma." That about sums up the artistic work, which has beautiful visuals but not much of a plot.

On Monday, we'll see if 42 scored and if Scary Movie 5 revived the aging franchise.

 

'Evil Dead' frightens, and 'Jurassic Park 3D' still has some roar

Evil Dead showed it could still scare audiences. The remake of the 1981 cult classic earned $26 million over the weekend. Anywhere over $20 million or so is a pretty good sign for a horror remake. However, it's likely the gross-out horror movie will fade fast, especially because it only received a "C+"
rating in exit polls.

Twenty years after Jurassic Park introduced its groundbreaking special effects to audiences, it turns out they still look pretty good--even, and especially, in 3D. The re-release of the Steven Spielberg-directed classic earned $18.2 million. Overseas, it could do even better, though it hasn't released in any key foreign markets yet. Next year, Jurassic Park 4 will hit theatres, and audiences will be primed to
revisit the world of the original film.

With some kids finishing up spring break, animated The Croods showed strong holding power, dipping just 21% for a third-weekend total of $21.1 million and a total of $125 million. That's only slightly off the third-week total for DreamWorks Animation's 2010 hit How to Train Your Dragon, a great sign for the studio after its holiday release, Rise of the Guardians, disappointed.

All three new specialty releases posted debuts in the $30,000 per-screen range, but had different numbers of total locations. Robert Redford-led The Company You Keep unspooled in 5 locations, averaging $29,200 per screen. Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle's thriller Trance averaged $34,000 per screen in 4 locations,
giving it a cumulative total just $10,000 below Company You Keep's. Finally, the cryptic sci-fi romance Upstream Color earned $31,000 at a single location.

The weekend was also good for indies expanding their releases. The Place Beyond the Pines went from 4 to 30 locations and rose 148% to $695,000. The Ryan Gosling-led indie maintained a per-screen average above $20,000, which bodes well for future weeks.

The music-filled feature The Sapphires is also on its way up. As it added 48 locations, it earned 3.5 times its total last week, for a weekend haul of $322,000.

This Friday, 42 tells the story of the first black man in Major Leauge Baseball, Jackie Robinson, and horror parody Scary Movie 5 will give Evil Dead watchers a chance to make fun of the films they love.

Scary seconds: 'Evil Dead' and 'Jurassic Park 3D' to freak out audiences

This weekend brings a bit of an eerie déjà vu for audiences. The two new wide releases tread familiar territory. Evil Dead is a remake of the 1981 horror feature that later turned into a cult hit, and Jurassic Park is a re-release of the 1993 movie, only in 3D.

Evil Dead (3,025 theatres) "will make you comprehensively uncomfortable," warns critic Lianne Spiderbaby, who also urges those with a "weak stomach" to stay away. Horror fans, though,
should be enough to bring the remake to an opening above $20 million. Courtesy of Platinum Dunes (not responsible for this remake), there have been many reboots of horror classics like Texas Chainsaw Massacre in recent years. Some hit, others don't. The updated visuals and characters will undoubtedly draw some people who don't like the washed-out look on their VHS tape. It's likely both people who have seen the original and those that recognize the movie name but just haven't seen the original will be among the attendees. If Evil Dead is a success, a remake of the sequel won't be too far away.

The most terrifying movie of my childhood--and many others'--will re-release in 3D. Jurassic Park (2,771 theatres) isn't necessarily looking for the surprise success of some re-releases. For Jurassic Park 3D, however, there are two things that will make the re-release worthwhile: next
year's Jurassic Park 4 and China. Since Jurassic Park 4 will come out next summer, the re-release of the original now is just free publicity and a way to drive 3D Blu-ray sales.

The money will come from China. When Titanic 3D re-released last year, it earned $285 million overseas. Half of that amount, or $145 million, came from China. Meanwhile, the re-release earned just $57 million in the U.S. That type of box-office breakdown is just unheard of, but it demonstrates why China is such an important emerging market. Audiences in China had never had a chance to see the original on the big screen, making attendance a must.
Jurassic Park 3D should rake up money in China, or else someone's not doing something right.

In between creating the opening ceremony for the 2012 London Olympics, Danny Boyle filmed Trance (4 theatres), a Hitchcock-esque suspenseful tale that received good marks from critic Rex Roberts. The "stylish, diverting thriller," which stars James McAvoy, has an "original idea complemented by a witty script, imaginative direction and appealing cast, and enough sex and violence to keep us from thinking too hard about plot twists." That sounds like enough to whet the appetites of arthouse audiences and make this a spring indie pick.

Also in the mix is The Company You Keep (5 theatres), which stars and is directed by Robert Redford. Critic Doris Toumarkine predicts that the story of "a
former radical forced to go underground but living a quiet,
responsible life under a false identity until a journo outs him" will appeal to an "upscale audience...of the '60s generation" that may welcome the chance to revisit the radicalism in their own youth. With its older star, it will certainly appeal to the aging arthouse audiences--perhaps it will even approach the benchmark set by last year's retiree-fueled hit The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

On Monday, we'll see which movie audiences chose to terrify them, and if either of the arthouse releases received the biggest push for their platform releases.