Lee Daniels’ The Butler’ may nab first place out from under ‘Kick-Ass 2’ this weekend

Summer may be almost over, but
distributors are still hoping to score blockbuster-sized ticket sales before
kids and teenagers head back to school. The Weinstein Company’s Butler and Kick-Ass 2 (from Universal) are expected to earn the top two spots at the box office
this weekend.

 Predictors may expect Kick-Ass
2 (2,940 theatres) to attract more viewers. It has all the trappings of a
summer smash, after all: a sequel about superheroes with a big-name star (Jim
Carrey) and fanboy cred. But don’t expect this film to do Man of Steel-style
numbers.
The original grossed
under $20 million its opening weekend in 2010. It did move a lot of DVDs and
Blu-rays, however, which Universal is citing as justification for a sequel. Kick-Ass
2 is also down a major actor: Nic Cage, whose performance
as a deranged Batman wannabe was a main draw for audience members, does not
appear in this installment. Carrey’s character is meant to fill Cage’s shoes,
but the comedian declined to promote the film, and even bashed it on social
media for its excessive violence in the wake of tragedies like the Newtown
shooting. The other factor that gave Kick-Ass so much buzz was
then-11-year-old lead Chloe Grace Moretz’s, um, colorful dialogue, which fully
justified the feature’s R rating. But Moretz is 15 now, and hearing her curse
like a sailor and ridicule her co-stars just doesn’t have the same double
take-inducing shock value. Universal is predicting that Kick-Ass 2 will
gross $19.8 million this weekend, an identical figure to the original. This
number would fall just short of The Butler’s expected haul, however.

A historical drama depicting
crucial moments in African-American history from the 1920s through the Reagan
era, The Butler (2,933 theatres) reads more Oscar-bait
than box office smash. But the Weinstein Company has been promoting the film
like mad. The presence of costar Oprah Winfrey (who hasn’t played a role other
than herself onscreen since 1998’s Beloved) alone should ensure a sizable female audience. Forest Whitaker is bankable as
protagonist Cecil Gaines, and audiences will be looking forward to catching
Robin Williams, John Cusack, James Marsden, Liev Schreiber, and Alan Rickman as
assorted Commanders in Chief. The film also appeals to minority viewers and TWC
has been promoting it heavily to church groups as well. In addition to all
these demographics, The Butler is likely to gain a significant
viewership from the overlooked 40+ set, who are drained from a summer’s worth
of comic book adaptations. Finally, the film is rated PG-13, which gives it a
greater built-in audience share than Kick-Ass 2, which
is rated R. The Butler could easily earn $20 million this
weekend, putting it just ahead of its rival’s predicted take.

Smaller releases Jobs (2,381 theaters) and Paranoia (2,459 theatres) also bow today. Neither has scored well with critics—Paranoia
in particular is currently boasting a horrendous 2% rating on Rotten
Tomatoes. Jobs stars Ashton Kutcher as the celebrated Apple
founder, and the actor brings enough appeal to likely land the biopic in third
place. Both films should bring in under $10 million. With no other PG-13
comedies currently in theaters, expect We’re the Millers to continue to pull in its portion of younger moviegoers. As the sole
recent animated kids movie, Planes is
in a similar position, which should boost its sales as well—though Despicable
Me 2, which came out over a month and a half ago, is still playing in over 2,000 theatres. 

'2 Guns' joins 'Smurfs 2,' but both want to be number one

This year has been exceptionally crowded when it comes to animated features, which doesn't bode well for the U.S. release of The Smurfs 2 (3,866 theatres). The original Smurf outing opened over $30 million in 2011, and a similar result for the sequel would be good, especially because the
biggest grosses are expected abroad. But what's to prevent families from choosing Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Epic, or Monsters University instead? There's only so many times parents can take their kids to the movies. THR's Justin Lowe thinks that parents will just give in, predicting that the animated feature "should have little trouble scaling stratospheric heights
similar to its predecessor with undiscriminating young audiences
and their chaperones, weary from near-unrelenting summertime
caregiving." Perhaps for some, The Smurfs 2 will provide that respite, as the blueberry-tinged creatures use their "curious blend of wide-eyed optimism and
goofy enthusiasm" to solve problems.

Denzel Washington is a sure thing at the box office, and that's what Universal will be counting on
for 2 Guns (3,025 theatres), which teams up the action star with Mark Wahlberg. The buddy cop feature with bits of comedy thrown in is "fun to watch but almost instantly forgettable," according to FJI critic Daniel Eagan, who compares it to "the B-movies of an earlier generation," meaning "it's
fast, tough and smarter than it has to be." Like The Smurfs 2, 2 Guns is aiming for an opening north of $30 million. The Smurfs 2 released starting Wednesday, when it earned $5.2 million, so it's unclear whether that early opening will help it gain steam or if it may slow down more quickly over the weekend.

There's also plenty going on at the indie box office. The writers of (500) Days of Summer adapted the script for The Spectacular Now (4 theatres), which earned raves at the Sundance Film Festival and is another excellent showcase for rising star Shailene Woodley, who appeared as George Clooney's daughter in The Descendants. The high-school set coming-of-age story "deserves to
reach a wide demographic," says critic Kevin Lally, "Its most appreciative audience may very
well be an older art-house crowd; the crossover to watch is the
teen segment." A24, which released teen pics The Bling Ring and Spring Breakers, will try to repeat its formula of attracting cinephiles and young viewers with the picture.

The found-footage genre goes into deep space in Europa Report (3 theatres), which critic Nick Schager praises for being a "well-executed, thematically intriguing tale of outer space
exploration and the responsibilities and risks such an enterprise
entails." Then there's Lindsay Lohan and James Deen pairing up for The Canyons (1 theatre), which our critic Doris Toumarkine predicts will be "catnip for Gawker/TMZ-loving loyalists but also won’t disappoint more demanding viewers."

On Monday, we'll see if audiences chose The Smurfs 2 or 2 Guns, and which of the specialty releases is on track to have a strong expansion through the rest of August.

'Despicable Me 2' takes down the 'Lone Ranger'

For the studio behind the yellow, goggle-wearing peanuts known as Minions, the five-day holiday weekend was great. Despicable Me 2 earned an astonishing $142 million over the five-day period, with its traditional three-day weekend bringing in $82.5 million of that total. People liked the original, and Universal marketed the follow-up as more of the same--but with even more of those adorable, babbling Minions. The budget for the animated feature was also just $76 million--assuredly much less than that of Disney behemoth Monsters University. Given this performance, there will definitely be a Despicable Me 3 in the works. Its $142 million opening narrowly tops the five-day opening record held by Toy Story 3, and this feature shows all signs of being the top animated feature of the summer, if not 2013.

The Lone Ranger had a five-day debut of $48.9 million, and a regular weekend total of $29.4 million. But for a film that likely costs over $200 million, and doesn't have global appeal, that's horrible news. THR is already speculating that Disney will take a writedown that could top $150 million for the Jerry Bruckheimer-produced feature, which was supposed to replicate the success of Pirates of the Caribbean by having Johnny Depp in a similar over-the-top role caked in makeup. Luckily, Disney has the successes of Iron Man 3 and Monsters University to bolster its bottom line, but this is a costly misfire that's only slightly better than last year's failure of John Carter.

Debuting in eighth place, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain earned $17.4 million since its Wednesday opening, $10.1 million of which came from the regular three-day weekend. That's an excellent performance for the stand-up comedy performance, which had a budget of just $2.5 million. That's also an improvement on the $7 million total for Hart's 2011 stand-up film, Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain. The comedian's strongest following is in markets like Atlanta and Baltimore, and the film's distribution plan has saturated those markets. Hart is definitely a star on the rise, and I suspect it won't be long before he toplines a comedy feature.

The Way, Way Back opened on Friday, and earned an encouraging $575,000, which amounts to a $30,000 per-screen average, the highest of any film this week. The comedic indie, which includes performances from Steve Carell and Allison Janney, takes place at a summer beach house and is a ripe offering for the dog days of summer.

This Friday, Adam Sandler and co. return for Grown Ups 2, and manmade monsters go up against alien ones in Guillermo del Toro's Pacific Rim.

'Despicable Me 2' and 'Lone Ranger' ready for fireworks

The first Despicable Me was a smashing success, and families and adults alike will be turning out this weekend to get their Minion fix in Despicable Me 2 (3,956 theatres). This summer is loaded with animated movies, but the strong reviews coming in for the feature so far means Despicable Me 2 stands a chance at being the cream of the crop, both critically and at the box office.

Blue Sky's May release, Epic, recently crossed the $100 million mark, and it's likely the weakest of the bunch. For the past two weeks, Pixar's Monsters University has held the number-one spot, even with last week's competition from The Heat and White House Down. The sequel has already earned $178 million. Still to come this summer is DreamWorks Animation's Turbo, Sony's The Smurfs 2, and Disney's Planes. Every studio doing animated movies has an offering this summer, leading to an incredibly crowded field. That's because when animated movies are done right, they're hugely successful both at the box office and, of course, through merchandising. According to FJI critic Kevin Lally, the Minion-filled tale deserves its expected $120 million gross from Wednesday through Sunday. The "boisterous, wholly
satisfying follow-up that takes the original premise in new
directions and provides memorable moments for its entire cast of
amusing characters," he extols.

What better way to celebrate America's independence than with a modern update to a western? Johnny Depp plays Tonto in The Lone Ranger (3,700 theatres), which our critic Frank Lovece dubs "an Old West superhero movie" that's far more entertaining than Man of Steel." However, while Man of Steel opened to $128 million over four days, Lone Ranger may end up with a more modest $70 million take over the five-day period. If audiences agree with Lovece that the movie is a "buoyantly kinetic,
full-of-heart adventure" that recalls Depp's memorable performance as Captain Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean, Lone Ranger may end up higher, and play well in weeks to come.

Rounding out the offerings is a theatrical release of comedian Kevin Hart's 2012 standup performance at Madison Square Garden in Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain (876 theatres). Our critic Marsha McCreadie calls Hart an "incredibly agile and
physically gifted comic," noting the Hart fans at her screening were enthusiastic.

On Friday, The Way, Way Back (19 theatres) will join the list of releases. The coming-of-age comedy about a teen boy finding his way by taking a summer job at a water park features a great cast of adult stars including Steve Carell, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney. Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, who co-wrote The Descendants, penned the screenplay and make their directing debut with the project, a similar family drama spiced with a pinch of dark humor.

On Monday, we'll be back to report on the box-office fireworks of the long holiday weekend.

 

‘Man of Steel’ forges $113 million weekend

Superman saved the day after all. Man
of Steel delivered comfortably over the $100 million benchmark set by
industry insiders, finishing the weekend with $113 million and an
additional $12 million from Thursday evening shows. Consistent with many
recent blockbusters, 3D underperformed while IMAX overperformed. IMAX accounted
for 12% of overall ticket sales, while 3D (which usually includes IMAX
showings) comprised 41% of box office  For Warner Bros., this is great
news for a potential franchise. Their 2006 film Superman Returns opened
to less than half of Man of Steel, and failed to spawn any future films.
For Man of Steel, this is likely only the beginning.

 This is the End didn’t draw in the broad audiences that some expected,
earning $20 million over the weekend and $32.8 million since its
Wednesday opening. The stoner comedy earned decent marks in exit polls (B+), so
this Seth Rogen and James Franco-led apocalyptic comedy should play reasonably
well in weeks to come. However, it underperformed compared to Pineapple
Express and Tropic Thunder, similar comedies that may have benefited
from a slightly more accessible premise and broader appeal.

 Within the top ten, the biggest
surprise was the 75% drop from The Purge. The home invasion
picture overperformed in its opening weekend, but its second-week drop was on
par with a poorly received horror movie: $8 million, from $34 million
the weekend before. Poorly reviewed After Earth fell 65% in week
three, another steep fall that put its weekend total down to $3.7 million.
The ninth-place finisher has returns of $54 million to date, but that’s with a
reported budget over $130 million. Ouch. In sixth place, The Internship
was also a loser in the top ten, falling 60% to earn just $7 million in
week two. Domestically, both of these movies aren’t even close to making back
their budget.

 Writer/director Sofia Coppola’s The
Bling Ring averaged $42,000 per screen in five locations, an
excellent start for the conversation-starting look at privileged teens who
broke the law in pursuit of celebrities' designer gear. This Friday, the
tale of teen fashion-lovers turned burglars will expand into over 500 theatres.

Sundance pickup 20 Feet from
Stardom opened to $17,000 per screen in three locations. The
documentary about backup singers is a Radius-Weinstein Co. release, which means
the distributor will also be heavily focusing on the on-demand part of
distribution.

This Friday, the zombie tentpole
World War Z will open opposite the kid-friendly prequel Monsters
University.

'Now You See Me' pulls off magic trick, beats 'After Earth'

Going into the weekend, most predictions had After Earth opening above $30 million, and Now You See Me languishing in the teen-million range. But the predictions were wrong. Now You See Me exceeded expectations, landing in second place with a $28 million opening. After Earth underperformed with just $27 million over the weekend. The fact that Now You See Me wasn't a tentpole worked in its favor, as the feature drew younger audiences (52% under 30) who liked the idea of a light, magic-driven heist movie. The casting of popular star Morgan Freeman also contributed to the bottom line. In contrast, After Earth suffered from poor reviews and a tepid "B" CinemaScore. The original sci-fi concept also didn't entice audiences the way other pre-sold Will Smith and Jaden Smith properties, like MIB 3 and The Karate Kid, did.

Bollywood movies often debut in the top twenty, but it's rare for a feature to open in the top ten. But that was the case for Yei Jawaani Hai Deewani, which landed in ninth place with $1.6 million, posting a $10,000 per-screen average. The romantic coming-of-age story stars Ranbir Kapoor, the fourth generation of an action family who have been dubbed "Bollywood royalty."

Eco-thriller The East debuted with the highest per-screen average of the week, earning $18,900 in each of its four locations. Fellow indie The Kings of Summer was right behind, averaging $14,500 per screen in its four-screen opening weekend. Before Midnight had an excellent second weekend as it expanded from five to 31 locations. The travelogue romance averaged $13,000 per screen and earned $431,000. With $800,000 in total, the Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy starrer should pass $1 million by week three.

This Friday, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson sign up for The Internship with Google, and those in search of scares can check out the speculative thriller The Purge.

'Fast & Furious 6,' 'Hangover III' and 'Epic' race for Memorial Day audiences

Last year on Memorial Day, the only major player was Men in Black 3. This year, three wide releases are competing for audiences. That could mean more people show up to the movies, but it also means there will be some cannibalization between films.

The Hangover Part III and Fast & Furious 6 have a somewhat overlapping audience: young males. The Hangover Part III (3,555 theatres) opened yesterday to try to get a jump-start on the weekend, and also because it's the weaker film. Tracking only 22% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, this "unstylish action
flick with comic asides" (as described by our Michael Sauter) is not faring well with critics. More importantly, many viewers were disappointed by The Hangover Part II. If people already feel as if they've been burned by the franchise, it's unlikely they'll turn out again. In a way, though, it seems this comedy can't win. The sequel was criticized for being too similar to the first film, yet Sauter faults the three-quel because it "changes up the franchise formula—and not in a good way." It seems like these sequels just can't win, so Warner Bros. is making a good decision to make this the (alleged) end to the franchise.

Fast & Furious 6 (3,658 theatres) is the franchise that keeps on giving. It seems like viewers have had more faith in the franchise than the studio, because screenwriters have to keep resurrecting characters they prematurely gave the boot. In this movie, it means placing a character in Japan to fill in a plot hole from a previous sequel, according to critic Daniel Eagan. Like 74% of Rotten Tomatoes critics, he enjoyed the "long, loud and expensive" movie, which "delivers
what series fans want, although not quite as quickly or cleverly as
before." Fast & Furious 6 will be the fastest out of the gate this weekend, and its four-day total could easily top $100 million.

The first animated film in over two months, Epic (3,882 theatres) should be seeing kids and their parents lining up for an outing. Yet there's a feeling among forecasters that this animated feature will have a tepid reception, especially if parents are savvy enough to realize there are plenty of other animated features in the pipeline for this summer, including Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and The Smurfs 2. Our critic, Frank Lovece, had the opposite reaction, calling Epic "one of the best features so far from Blue
Sky Studios," and the movie itself full of "thematic richness."

It's rare for an indie romance to turn into a trilogy. But that's the case with Before Midnight (5 theatres), which picks up on the romance between Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy, this time while the duo is in Greece . Also in the mix this weekend is the latest from documentarian and workhorse Alex Gibney, We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks (4 theatres), which Eagan dubbed "brilliant but maddening."

After the four-day weekend, we'll be back on Tuesday to assess the impact of this jam-packed weekend.

'Star Trek Into Darkness' on its way to a $100 million weekend

Opening on Wednesday night in over 300 IMAX locations, Star Trek Into Darkness debuted to $3.3 million, similar to The Great Gatsby's early take for Thursday night screenings last week. Totals for Thursday haven't been tallied yet. Now playing in 3,868 theatres, the sci-fi sequel is expected to earn a weekend haul upwards of $100 million. One reason that the Wednesday night totals were so low was because Paramount only made the decision to release that evening last week--long after most fanboys would have made their Fandango purchases.

The 3D and IMAX feature has strong reviews, just like the 2009 original reboot. The 2009 Star Trek earned a 95% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and the sequel is running 87% positive. I felt both movies were equally good, and if anything, the lower ratings this time around are just due to people raising the benchmark about what they expect a J.J. Abrams-directed Star Trek movie to be. The stakes are personal this time around. "One major improvement of Into Darkness is
its more vivid villain," our critic Kevin Lally notes. Benedict Cumberbatch plays the adversary with "tremendously
imposing fierceness and icy elegance," making the movie not only a battle of brute force but of cerebral maneuvering.

Just like with Iron Man 3, no other wide release wanted to play second fiddle to Star Trek Into Darkness. Given the similarity between the two films, Iron Man 3 should experience a larger-than-average drop this weekend, while last week's The Great Gatsby should dip only in relation to its so-so word-of-mouth.

For indie-seeking audiences, director Noah Baumbach's latest may be in black-and-white, but it's already being considered his most accessible work to date. Greta Gerwig stars in Frances Ha (4 theatres), a counterpoint to "Girls" that should appeal to urban 20-somethings and cinephiles alike. In my review, I praised the "spot-on, exquisitely crafted portrait of a floundering 20-something," and this is one movie I'm definitely rooting for. Another indie of note is the "genre gem" Black Rock, "a thriller riff" that gets "the job of entertainment
done very well," according to our reviewer Doris Toumarkine. If the idea of innocent hikers being hunted by deranged army vets sounds fun to you, start standing in the ticket line.

On Monday, we'll see if Star Trek Into Darkness exceeded the $75 million opening of its 2009 predecessor, and if Frances Ha's unspooling suggests an indie success.

'Oblivion' summits box office with $38 million opening

The "summer" movie season has been creeping up earlier and earlier each year. Oblivion opted to jump the gun on Iron Man 3, the first would-be blockbuster of the year, for a less competitive spot in mid-April. The placement appears to have paid off. The Tom Cruise-led sci-fi picture opened to $38 million. It will have one more wide-open week before Iron Man 3 siphons away an audience looking to see the biggest, visual effects-laden picture out there. One thing it won't have, however, is strong word-of-mouth. Viewers, which skewed male and were mostly over the age of 25, gave the movie just a "B-" rating, which won't help out the movie in coming weeks.

Specialty pick The Place Beyond the Pines tripled the amount of theatres showing the drama, but only received a boost of 23%. Still, that's consistent for small releases expanding wide. The $4.7 million weekend pushed the movie's cumulative total above $11 million, making it director Derek Cianfrance's biggest success yet.

The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 earned an "A+" rating from audiences last week, but it still dropped a bit more than would be expected given that excellent audience feedback. The $18 million weekend total reflected a 34% dip from the previous week. If the well-regarded feature continues to restrain its losses to a third or so, however, it should be in for the long haul.

This weekend turned out to be a good one for smaller releases targeted at niche audiences. The Christian-themed baseball picture Home Run earned $1.6 million and posted a $4,000 per-screen average. Filly Brown, a drama about the life of Latino street poet, earned $1.3 million off a miniscule budget. The movie played in the Sundance Film Festival last year. Rob Zombie's horror movie The Lords of Salem also played well, topping $622,000 while playing on 354 screens.

On Friday, the romantic comedy The Big Wedding will play against Pain & Gain, an action comedy about bodybuilders-turned-kidnappers.

China now has the biggest foreign box office--but they just pulled 'Django Unchained' from theatres

Last year, China became the biggest foreign market at the box office, surpassing Japan. With a huge, upwardly mobile population, it will likely remain at number one, and widen the gap between first and second place at the global box office. But China does not have a free press, and two stories in THR highlight the challenges of working in the Chinese marketplace.

Christian Johnston and Darren Mann, the directors of State of Control, a documentary that will be

shown at the HotDocs festival in Toronto, wrote a piece about how they were tailed during the Beijing Olympics in 2008 while trying to make their film about tensions between Tibetans and the Chinese government. They were followed, harassed, and eventually left the country after being constantly blocked from achieving their goals at every turn. In the meantime, the people they corresponded with had their computers hacked. IP addresses traced the viruses back to China. It's worth pointing out, as the filmmakers don't, that the Chinese government was on extreme high alert during the Beijing Olympics, and very cautious about the image they presented. I wonder if the reaction to their filming would be as intense now. Last year at the Tribeca Film Festival, the documentary High Tech, Low Life explored how citizen journalists have been taking on the government in small ways, exposing instances where the government has angered peasants with issues of imminent domain. Another wrote about  a case where the rape of a girl was covered up because the perpetrator was the son of a local official. The officials would have tea with the journalists, finding out what they were doing and marking out the invisible boundaries that they could not cross. There is leeway, but not for all. A political dissident like Ai Wei Wei (who has his own doc, Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry) is seen as more dangerous because he targets high-level political officials. You don't want to mess with those people.

As difficult as it can be to exercise free speech or bring injustices to light within China, it's also difficult to exhibit objectionable content. Director Quentin Tarantino's latest, Django Unchained, was pulled from theatres just as it released, because of "technical difficulties." By appearing to change its mind after approving the release, the Chinese government looks bad, and many citizens took to their version of Twitter, Weibo, to complain. My guess is that "technical difficulties" may be a euphemism for further cuts that need to be made, or mistakenly weren't made. Tarantino already noted that he de-saturated the color of blood in the movie in order to comply with Chinese standards. Perhaps the government decided it needs more of these types of cuts before they bring the film back. In the days and weeks to come, Hollywood as a whole will be watching closely to see if the release makes its way back into theatres. TheWeinstein Co. is known stateside for turning controversy into box-office dollars (like its campaign over the R rating of The Bully Project), so if Django Unchained returns to theatres, they just may be able to pique viewers' interests. Who wouldn't want to see a movie so controversial, it was temporarily pulled from theatres?

'Evil Dead' frightens, and 'Jurassic Park 3D' still has some roar

Evil Dead showed it could still scare audiences. The remake of the 1981 cult classic earned $26 million over the weekend. Anywhere over $20 million or so is a pretty good sign for a horror remake. However, it's likely the gross-out horror movie will fade fast, especially because it only received a "C+"
rating in exit polls.

Twenty years after Jurassic Park introduced its groundbreaking special effects to audiences, it turns out they still look pretty good--even, and especially, in 3D. The re-release of the Steven Spielberg-directed classic earned $18.2 million. Overseas, it could do even better, though it hasn't released in any key foreign markets yet. Next year, Jurassic Park 4 will hit theatres, and audiences will be primed to
revisit the world of the original film.

With some kids finishing up spring break, animated The Croods showed strong holding power, dipping just 21% for a third-weekend total of $21.1 million and a total of $125 million. That's only slightly off the third-week total for DreamWorks Animation's 2010 hit How to Train Your Dragon, a great sign for the studio after its holiday release, Rise of the Guardians, disappointed.

All three new specialty releases posted debuts in the $30,000 per-screen range, but had different numbers of total locations. Robert Redford-led The Company You Keep unspooled in 5 locations, averaging $29,200 per screen. Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle's thriller Trance averaged $34,000 per screen in 4 locations,
giving it a cumulative total just $10,000 below Company You Keep's. Finally, the cryptic sci-fi romance Upstream Color earned $31,000 at a single location.

The weekend was also good for indies expanding their releases. The Place Beyond the Pines went from 4 to 30 locations and rose 148% to $695,000. The Ryan Gosling-led indie maintained a per-screen average above $20,000, which bodes well for future weeks.

The music-filled feature The Sapphires is also on its way up. As it added 48 locations, it earned 3.5 times its total last week, for a weekend haul of $322,000.

This Friday, 42 tells the story of the first black man in Major Leauge Baseball, Jackie Robinson, and horror parody Scary Movie 5 will give Evil Dead watchers a chance to make fun of the films they love.

'G.I. Joe: Retaliation' shocks and awes with $40 million weekend

G.I. Joe: Retaliation is having the last laugh.
After Paramount moved the release date from last summer to this March, many in
the industry suspected they were trying to salvage a stinker. Instead, G.I. Joe:
Retaliation earned $41.2 million over the weekend, and
$51.7 million since its
Thursday opening. The budget for the follow-up feature
was slightly lower, yet including the overseas totals, the movie is already
pacing ahead of the 2009 original. The studio's decision to convert the feature
to 3D also paid off: 45% of tickets sold were for 3D showings, which is better
than many other recent films, including The Croods.

The Easter weekend was also kind to Tyler Perry. His film Temptation:
Confessions of a Marriage Counselor opened to $22.3 million
and received high marks from its older female, African-American viewers. The
general critical community, however, was not impressed. Perry is definitely a
workhorse, and though he's never had the kind of massive hits of Steven
Spielberg or Robert Zemeckis, he joins their ranks by having nine films open
over $20 million. Perry's mix of romance, drama, and humor has thrived with little variation at the box office--talk about evergreen returns.

If only young adult sci-fi romances were so predictable. The Host,
which came courtesy of none other than fantasy-romance queen bee Stephenie
Meyer, who wrote the Twilight series and produced this adaptation of
her book, showed that teen girls are picky--and fickle. It's the latest twist
on the genre to be greeted by a tepid reaction at the box office. That's what
happened to Beautiful Creatures, which recently opened to $7.5
million. The
Host did slightly better, debuting to $11 million,
but that's still nowhere near the original Twilight's $70 million opening. It's time for studios to look at other content that appeals to teen girls that doesn't recycle the same elements. That's what worked for The Hunger Games, and coming up with the next idea like that is what will lead to a billion-dollar franchise.

The Place Beyond the Pines averaged $67,000 per screen in four locations in NYC and LA. While critics found flaws in the movie, it does star Ryan Gosling, who has turned into a sort of tongue-in-cheek feminist icon and blog meme. There was also a spontaneous Ryan Gosling-themed Easter egg hunt that undoubtedly turned a few eyes near his work. Another specialty feature, The Shining documentary Room 237, got a good start with $18,000 per screen in two locations.

This Friday, the horror classic Evil Dead gets a reboot and the original Jurassic Park returns to theatres in 3D.

'Oz the Great and Powerful' points families towards the Yellow Brick Road

With the might of Disney and the appeal of The Wizard of Oz in its favor, Oz the Great and Powerful (3,912 theatres) will attempt to at least triple the opening of last week's fairytale flop, Jack the Giant Slayer. The special effects go well beyond the original's famous transition from black-and-white to color, and that's one reason this spin  on L. Frank Baum's Oz series "fails to
capture the heartwarming spirit of the original," critic Kevin Lally assesses. "To
paraphrase the Tin Man: If it only had more heart…" James Franco gives an "uninspired lead performance" as the Wizard, while Mila Kunis, Michelle Williams, and Rachel Weisz give passable performances as three witches. Families will be the primary audience for the PG-rated work, but I wouldn't be surprised if the material is too intense for many younger viewers. A girl about 10 years old sat next to me at the press screening, and spent many of the intense moments wincing at the screen and covering her ears. At least during opening weekend, it's unlikely that will stop the feature from approaching $100 million.

Early 2013 has been filled with R-rated action films and thrillers. Dead Man Down (2,188 theatres) jumps right into this crowded arena, and it's unlikely to accrue more than $10 million or so. The Danish director of the original Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Niels Arden Oplev, teams up
with his star in that movie, Noomi Rapace, for a New York City-set "vengeance-driven,
neo-noir crime thriller." Colin Farrell plays a criminal in part of an organized crime empire who secretly plots revenge for the murder of his wife and son. He gets a way to achieve his goals when he meets a woman scarred from a car accident (Rapace). In addition to releasing in a market saturated with R-rated releases, FilmDistrict has only lightly marketed the feature, further limiting its box-office prospects.

Tommy Lee Jones plays General Douglas MacArthur, who is trying to restore order in Japan after WWII in Emperor (260 theatres). The question is whether Emperor Hirohito (Takataro Kataoka) should be tried as a war criminal or left be. Jones "captures the general's pomp and
swagger without diminishing his real insights and
accomplishments.," FJI critic Daniel Eagan praises. However, despite bright spots like these, it's mainly an "underachieving drama" that's "too low-key and
simplistic." That extends to depictions of an interracial romance and "a
surprisingly superficial and condescending attitude toward the
Japanese in general." Doesn't sound like this one will do big business in Japan.

On Monday, we'll see if Oz the Great and Powerful can bring the first quarter of the 2013 box office back on track, and if Dead Man Down and Emperor can make an impact with their more limited resources.

Jessica Chastain's 'Mama' and 'Zero Dark Thirty' could go 1-2 this weekend

Jessica Chastain just won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Now she has a standard horror genre picture coming out this weekend, though it does come courtesy of executive producer Guillermo del Toro. Still, it's unlikely that she'll be "Norbit-ed." The term refers to how Eddie Murphy, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls in 2006, may have had his changes torpedoed by his starring role in the lowbrow comedy. With a 63% positive rating on Rotten
Tomatoes (compared to Norbit's 7% positive rating), it's unlikely Mama (2,647 theatres) will be an embarrassment. The PG-13 rated picture is a "throwback and a modest delight
for people who like a good scare but prefer not to be terrorized or
grossed out," observes THR's critic Todd McCarthy. "Bloodthirsty female teens" will be a prime audience for the movie, which centers on Chastain and two young girls she takes in after a traumatic experience. An opening in the high teens would put the picture ahead of Zero Dark Thirty (also starring Chastain), though they should be neck and neck. If Zero Dark Thirty loses a third of its audience, which would be a particularly good hold, it will end up around $16 million, which should be enough for second place, if not first.

Last Stand and Broken City will both compete for adult male audiences this weekend. They're
expected to do fairly similar business, with each one ending up in the low teen millions. The Last Stand (2,913 theatres) is Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading-man role since he underwent the transition from movie star to politician, becoming a two-term governor of California. However, the action hero had much-touted cameos in the Expendables movies that many already considered his "return." Wittily self-referential, the film
particularly sends up Schwarzenegger’s age," reports FJI critic Marsha McCreadie, noting a scene where he has to don glasses to get a look at a bullet wound. The answer to the "implied question behind the film: Can
Schwarzenegger still deliver?" is yes.

A corrupt mayor (Russell Crowe) hires a P.I. (Mark Wahlberg) to find out if his wife (Catherine Zeta-Jones) is being unfaithful in Broken City (2,620 theatres). Of course, that initial hint of betrayal spirals into something much bigger in this "noir-ish" look
at New York City. The "broad, splashy pieces of easily digestible
narrative, visual and character components...provides
an easy ride into a cheesy, lazily imagined New York political
scandal," offers critic Doris Toumarkine. That might be enough to get adult males into seats this weekend, at least the ones who prefer to see power wielded cerebrally, not physically.

After spending three weeks playing in around 750 theatres, Silver Linings Playbook will open wide, into, 2,523 locations. The romantic comedy has earned $43 million to date. This weekend should add at least another $10 million to the total. All four lead actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) received Oscar nominations for their performances. With a cipher of a title and a premise that's hard to reduce to a one-line plot description, this movie has sought to gain viewers primarily through word-of-mouth, which is why it has rolled out so slowly.

On Monday, we'll see which Jessica Chastain film led the box office and how many Academy Award nominees kept their spot in the top ten.

 

 

'Killing Them Softly' and 'The Collection' add R-rated movies to holiday mix

If you missed any of the great releases in the past few weeks, now is the time to catch up. For the past decade, movie studios have avoided releasing any film they want to open big the weekend after Thanksgiving. The two movies opening today, both with R ratings, appeal to niche and frequent moviegoers. The Collection will satisfy horror fans while Killing Them Softly will play to adult connoisseurs of mobster and gunplay movies. Neither of these movies should inch up far past the $10 million mark, if they even get that far. The Collection, in particular, may only tally up a few million.

The lead spot this weekend will likely go to The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. Even with free-fall drops, the supernatural romance started off high enough that it could end up with just under $20 million three weeks after its blockbuster $141 million opening. In the follow-up weekend after Thanksgiving, that may be enough to boast a number-one finish. The rest of the top five should be filled with broader-playing, quality fare, including Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Skyfall, which is staying aloft thanks to great word-of-mouth. I've heard more buzz about Skyfall from friends who are infrequent moviegoers than I have for any other movie this year.

Rise of the Guardians should also play somewhere north of $10 million in its second weekend,
though it will be interesting to see how much of a lead it can maintain over its much more successful animated competitor. Wreck-It Ralph has been playing just two spots below Guardians during the weekdays despite releasing three weeks earlier. 

Killing Them Softly (2,424 theatres) should open in the bottom half of the top ten, but not because it's a bad movie. Instead, the tale of a hit man (Brad Pitt) who is hired to take down a trio who robbed a mob card game, making the entire criminal world insolvent, serves as commentary on the collapse of American banks and offers the insight "that all this bottom-feeder jockeying
for position is the funhouse mirror of American politics and
business," according to critic Maitland McDonagh. As
"black comedy as its most stygian," it may alienate some viewers, but McDonagh is giving this one her endorsement thanks to its "razor-sharp edge."

An "exercise in gratuitous sadism and gore," The Collection (1,403 theatres), a sequel to the horror movie The Collector, has enough "carnage to satisfy hardcore horror fans," according to THR's Frank Scheck. Though there are moments of "tension" and successful scenes involving tarantulas and a person forced to
break their own arm, don't check this one out unless you unequivocally say yes to all things torture porn.

The Bollywood movie Talaash will open in 172 theatres, and it could ring up some big business. Two weeks ago, the Yash Chopra-directed Jab Tak Hai Jaan, with a similarly small release, opened in the top ten with $1.2 million, and has now earned $3 million. Critic Daniel Eagan predicts the "polished and seductive" noir should "do extremely well at
the box office." The mystery covers topics seen less frequently in Indian movies, and Eagan gives it a nod for its "sympathetic but realistic view of sex workers."

On Monday, we'll see which of the Thanksgiving releases held on to their audiences, and if Killing Them Softly and The Collection were able to draw new viewers who weren't already stuffed from the holiday offerings.

Bond lands in the U.S. with 'Skyfall'

When FJI critic Frank Lovece calls Skyfall (3,505 theatres) "the best Bond film since the ’60s. Period," you know it will be a success. 92% of Rotten Tomatoes critics have also given a thumbs-up to the latest installment in the franchise. The years of waiting while MGM sorted out its bankruptcy paid off, giving those involved more time to polish the script and bring the series back to what it
used to be. The twenty-third Bond film has already earned $321 million overseas, so it's virtually guaranteed that Skyfall will have similar results at home. This is a "must see" feature that draws in people who rarely attend their local theatre. Expectations are cautious, and some predict that the latest Bond may not exceed the $67 million opening of 2008's Quantum of Solace. However, even if Skyfall does not open that high--but I think it will--it's already pretty clear that Bond's capers are so compelling, word-of-mouth will make this a strong player in the weeks to come. Besides the always-compelling performances of Daniel Craig as Bond and Judi Dench as M, Javier Bardem is the best Bond villain I've ever encountered. I can't think of many other actors who can play Julia Robert's love interest in Eat Pray Love, and then turn around and be an utterly creepy villain, as he has previously done in No Country for Old Men. Maybe Bardem can pull a Heath Ledger and snag an Oscar nomination for his role as the villain.

As a counterpoint to Skyfall, Steven Spielberg-directed Lincoln begins a limited release in 11 theatres. Daniel Day-Lewis stars as the sixteenth president in what's more of a political
procedural, a "handsomely mounted civics lesson" that gives audiences a "snapshot of a turbulent point in American politics," as described by FJI critic Daniel Eagan. The historical biopic has a scene-stealing supporting character, Tommy Lee Jones as the quick-witted Thaddeus Stevens, a powerful Senate member whose belief in equality for all races is considered too extreme by most other lawmakers. Lincoln will likely open extremely high because of Spielberg's pedigree, so the real test will be next week, when the Civil War-set tale expands to 1,500 theatres and must seek approval from a more general audience.

Rounding out the specialty offerings is A Royal Affair, a Danish-language love triangle between the king, the queen, and the royal physician. Johnny Knoxville and Patton Oswalt star in Nature Calls, a "good-natured send-up of the Boy Scouts," according to THR's John DeFore. Detroit's fire epidemic is highlighted in the documentary Burn: One Year on the Front Lines of the Battle to Save Detroit, which is opening in NYC.

On Monday, we'll see just how high Skyfall soared, and if its adult competitors Argo and Flight suffered from the release of the action and martini-fueled tentpole.

'Skyfall' opens this Friday in the U.S., but it's already a smashing success abroad

James Bond is, of course, a British import, though the long-running character is on a last-name basis with most of America. The James Bond movies historically debut first in the U.K., but the latest, Skyfall, has already been open for two weeks around the world in almost every major market. That doesn't include the U.S., which won't show the movie until November 9, three weeks
after its October 24 release elsewhere. Is this going to be the new order? Will the U.S. now regularly follow other countries in releases?

The answer is both yes and no. One reason Skyfall opened in so many markets--over twenty--is because of national holidays. Many countries get All Saint's Day (Nov. 1) off, and studios like to time big releases to holidays where everyone is in search of entertainment. In Bond's homeland, the U.K., the movie has already earned $85 million and is on track to beat The Dark Knight Rises to become the highest-grossing movie of the year. That's a third of the foreign total. However, the Bond series has always been about international jaunts. Two countries that feature heavily into the plotline--China and Turkey--have yet to release the movie. China will be a big one. I personally was impressed with the aerial shots of Shanghai in Skyfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes many viewers add the country to their tourism wish list.

Hollywood is used to the U.S. market dictating the success of a release. When a movie performs much better abroad than domestically, it's seen as an outlier, an "overperformer." Sometimes, the movies that do best go for the lowest common denominator, making people resent the globalization of the box office. The Bond brand may, oddly enough, have a greater resemblance to Mamma Mia! or The Adventures of Tintin. All three are based on figures who are more popular abroad than in the U.S. If any movie is going to open big abroad before a U.S. release, it should be one like these three. When U.S. audiences check out Bond this weekend, they're unlikely to be resentful that people across the pond got to see the movie before them. They're more likely happy to know the movie is already a hit and their $12 movie ticket is not being wasted, but instead paying for what many are calling the best Bond movie since those in the 1960s.

'Argo' leads in soft weekend for new releases

Argo may not have opened at number one, but in its third weekend, it finally rose to the top. Despite four new wide releases, it was the Ben Affleck-directed and led thriller that grabbed the first-place position with a $12.3 million finish. Although Argo's 25% drop was larger than last week's 15% dip, that's still an extremely strong hold. By next week, the movie should be tracking ahead of Affleck's previous picture, The Town, which opened higher but had larger week-to-week

falls.

Cloud Atlas led the group of new releases, finishing with $9.4 million, right below Hotel Transylvania's $9.5 million. The literary adaptation reportedly cost over $100 million, so that part doesn't bode well for the career trajectory of the Wachowski siblings, who directed the picture along with Tom Tykwer. It's possible the actual total could be even lower, since many NYC theatres shut down in early evening, when public transit in the city also ground to a halt in preparation for the storm. This appeared to be a film choice for an older, arthouse-leaning crowd. 77% of ticket-buyers were over the age of 25. 12% of the totals came from IMAX screens, indicating this was an "event" film for certain fans.

The horror sequel Silent Hill: Revelation 3D opened to $8 million. The original opened to $20 million in 2006, indicating that this adaptation of a video game franchise has lost almost all momentum. Any plans for a Silent Hill 3 are likely dead and buried.

The teen comedy Fun Size failed to ignite, and barely squeaked into the top ten with just $4
million. Teen girls, likely fans of "iCarly" star Victoria Justice, did show up: 67% of attendees were female and 73% under the age of 25. But not enough of them showed up, so the opening ended up below even other Nickelodeon-produced flops like Hey Arnold! The Movie, which had a similarly lackluster opening of $5.7 million back in 2002.

Chasing Mavericks had an extremely disappointing debut of just $2.2 million, giving it a thirteenth-place finish. Why release a surfing movie in the fall? Spring or summer would be a better choice for the release, just the time of year when people are anticipating or enjoying beach vacations. It's also the second bomb for a Fox/Walden Media release. Won't Back Down recently debuted to a figure almost as low, $2.6 million.

The specialty front was also quiet. The Loneliest Planet opened to a $10,000 per screen average at two locations. On Rotten Tomatoes, critics liked it, giving it a 76% positive rating. Rotten Tomatoes users were less happy, with only 46% coming out in favor of the tale of a couple's relationship, which is tested while traveling in the remote Caucasus mountains. That indicates the feature may not do as well in coming weeks. Compare that to The Sessions. In its second week, the heartwarming romance-drama went from four to twenty screens and reaped the rewards. The $11,000 per-screen average was the highest of any release this weekend, and gave the John Hawkes-led picture a total of $231,000. The ratings on Rotten Tomatoes show the difference: the 96% positive critics ratings are matched by an 86% positive audience rating.

This Friday, the CG-animated Wreck-It Ralph will likely steal the thunder from kid-friendly competitor Hotel Transylvania. The well-reviewed Flight will also open in theatres along with The Man with the Iron Fists.

'Brave' soars to $67 million, with audiences opting for 2D

Pixar continues its strong box office record with Brave, which debuted to $66.7 million. That's slightly more than the $66.1 million debut of Cars 2 last year. 66% of revenue came from 2D screenings. Since 2D has lower ticket prices, that means an even greater percentage of audiences opted for 2D. I've heard a few anecdotes from people who planned to see a movie in 2D but ended up paying extra to see the 3D version only because the 2D screening was sold out. The true amount of audiences who prefer 2D may even be higher. However, since audiences abroad opt for 3D, it's likely to continue to be an option for big-budget tentpoles.

Even with competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted only dipped 40% to $20.2 million.  It appears audiences are hungry for animated options, but they won't have another one until Ice Age 3 opens July 13.

Debuting in third place, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter netted $16.5 million. 45% of revenue for the horror-action-alternative history hybrid came from 3D, indicating that a male, fanboy audience is more keen on the format. The release earned a dismal C+ rating on CinemaScore, indicating this the flick already has a stake through its heart.

Steve Carell and Keira Knightley didn't entice audiences to check out Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, which averaged a low $2,300 per screen for a total of $3.8 million. Perhaps the apocalyptic romantic comedy should have been even more limited to ensure a higher opening per-screen average, but calls like that are difficult to make. In comparison, Moonrise Kingdom occupied the spot below with $3.4 million in its fifth week, while still playing on only a quarter of the screens.

Woody Allen films typically open big, so it's no surprise that a five-screen release of To Rome, With Love netted $75,000 per screen, the second-highest of the year. However, middling reviews should ensure this won't be another breakout hit like last year's Midnight in Paris.

This Friday, Seth MacFarlane of "Family Guy" voices a raunchy bear in Ted, long lost siblings reunite in People Like Us, Channing Tatum plays a male stripper in Magic Mike, and Tyler Perry returns with Madea's Witness Protection.

 

Memorial Day weekend puts 'Men in Black 3' on top

In Hollywood, you can't win everything. Men in Black 3, the first new installment of the sci-fi comedy franchise in a decade, earned $55 million over the three-day weekend and $70 million including Monday. Still, the return fell short of some predictions, which had the Will Smith/Tommy Lee Jones/Josh Brolin picture earning at least $80 million. Smith's star power is considered untouchable, but the less-than-thrilling opening has slightly diminished his reputation, at least in the opinion of some in the industry. Smith hasn't even been in a movie since 2008's Seven Pounds, though he's currently filming the sci-fi picture After Earth with his son Jaden.

Low-budget horror film Chernobyl Diaries made a disappointing $7.9 million over the weekend, which rose to just $9.3 million including Monday. At one point, it seemed like making a horror movie guaranteed a return on investment, but for every hit like Paranormal Activity or Insidious there are also flops like Apollo 18 and The Darkest Hour. Chernobyl Diaries falls into the latter category.

Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom broke the record for per-location average (for a non-animated film), finishing with $130,000 per screen. The film played in two theatres in NYC and two in LA. Judging by the hourly showtimes, the nostalgic story of young love was playing in more than one theatre in each location. Anderson's reputation undoubtedly assured a high opening weekend, but the record-breaking numbers mean this film has already been drawing in less committed Anderson fans. The release will expand into hundreds of theatres by June, but I wonder if the exceptional opening weekend will change Focus' distribution plan.

Weinstein Co.'s The Intouchables had a strong $25,000 per-screen average over the three-day weekend. The French-language, uplifting story of two friends hits straight at many indie film sensibilities, but there are already a couple of films angling to be the "indie hit of the summer," and that list won't include The Intouchables. Bernie (which averaged $85,000 per screen its opening weekend) topped $1 million for the first time this weekend, playing in 194 theatres and averaging over $5,000 per screen. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which expanded into over 1,200 theatres over the holiday weekend, did even better. The retirement-age comedy earned $6.3 million.

This Friday, Snow White and the Huntsman will attempt to unseat MIB3, and a few smaller films will aim for niche audiences.