Slow but steady future for 3D films, says PricewaterhouseCoopers

By Sarah Sluis

The move to 3D, in terms of film history, should play out more like color than sound. All films transitioned from silent to sound in a snap--just a few years. To not convert was to become a box-office failure. But color, like 3D, was reserved for specific genres, like historical epics, fantasy, and children's movies, before becoming more widespread. I took a few of PricewaterhouseCoopers' predictions on the future of 3D movies and gave my own take on how it will all play out.

"Most 3D live-action production will be limited to sci-fi, horror and concert genres" Yes, but this is changing. Avatar is sci-fi, but it's also a tentpole, an awards hopeful, a James Cameron movie and an action/environmental/romance movie. As films with multiple genre identities are made in 3D, it will become easier for those "romance/action/comedy" movies to be made. Just today, Variety announced that the sequel to Zombieland, a horror/comedy will be filmed in 3D. The next Jackass sequel, a documentary/action/comedy, will be made in 3D. With its emphasis on live, improv events, Jackass is a cousin of the concert film, a popular choice for 3D, but certainty not part of the genre itself.

"3D-animated slates at Disney and DreamWorks will be closely scrutinized by rivals." Maybe. As far as I'm concerned, animation is already a lock for 3D. Animation is a medium grounded in fantasy, not reality, making 3D a very natural variation. I would worry if these animation studios decided to make a movie in 2D, which would indicate a slipping in 3D's profitability. As it stands, both Pixar and DreamWorks Animation are committed to producing all their upcoming films in 3D.

"Slow growth through 2014...because of lingering budgetary and creative concerns" You can look at this from the production side, but the audience side is just as important. A lot of people are resistant to seeing 3D movies because of their stereotype as a gimmicky concept that takes away from the narrative. That's not the case. As a former skeptic myself, watching movies like Coraline, Up, and even The Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Experience "glasses on" made those movies better. In the case of concert movies, 3D helps amp up the spectacle and gives a heightened sense of reality. No, you don't actually feel like you're there, but the dimensionality gives you a sense of the landscape, and the camera movements always make sure you have the best seat in the house. Up, compared to Coraline or Monsters vs. Aliens, uses very restrained 3D. The filmmakers either didn't author it in 3D from start to finish, but added it in later, or they chose to avoid having the images pop up and behind in a striking (and perhaps detracting) way. Takeaway point: 3D is flexible. It's not always about making you think something is coming right at you, but subtly adding depth of field. If 3D is adopted by dramas, comedies, and romances, I suspect this restrained look will be the norm. Regardless, watching a film with glasses is on its way to becoming a normal part of the moviegoing experience.

'Up' high at the box office

By Sarah Sluis

Up, Pixar's entry in the '09 summer box office, bested last year's Wall-E to gross $68.2 million, slightly more than the robot film's $63 million opening. While detractors feared the elderly main character would turn off younger viewers, 31% of seats were filled by kids 2-11, and it appears the old-young pairing piqued the interest of a wider range of viewers. Disney reported the film did well even in past-bedtime showings, which would usually have a significant drop-off.

While Up didn't use 3D for any gimmicky effects (like Monsters vs. Aliens), audiences overwhelmingly paid the extra $2 or so to see the film with glasses. Its 1,534 3D venues grossed $24,000 per screen, sell-out levels, and 2.2 times that of 2D screens. That meant that while only 40% of the screens were 3D, over half the gross came from these venues, another checkmark in favor of 3D's profitability.

The other debut of the week, Drag Me To Hell, earned $16.6 million, slightly over Terminator Salvation's second-week total of $16.1 million. The horror film played best on Friday, with slight drops on Saturday and Sunday. Because of the film's positive reviews, the studio hopes it won't disappear as fast as most horror titles, and will drum up business from strong word-of-mouth.

The 62% drop in Terminator Salvation may not be as bad for the franchise as it seems. Most films dropped at least 50% this week, since last week's Memorial Day holiday added business not just on Monday, but throughout the weekend. Wolverine dropped 69% in its second weekend (although the X-Men film had a stronger opening weekend), so the re-launch is merely a more middling entry among films with both costs and grosses above $100 million (at $90 million, Terminator will likely cross that mark this week).

Star Trek dropped two spots to number five, earning $12.8 million and crossing the $200 million mark, making it the most successful release among May tentpoles. At numbers nine and ten, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and Obsessed earned $1.9 million and $665,000, respectively. After five and six weeks at the box office, the films have quietly earned $50 and $67 million, sure signs of profitability for the relatively low-budget films.

On the specialty front, The Brothers Bloom expanded and almost cracked the top ten, coming in with $652,000 at is 148 locations. Departures made $8,000 per screen at its nine locations, and inspiring documentary Pressure Cooker, which follows low-income students trying to win scholarships, guided by a tough culinary instructor, also made $8,000 per screen at its single location.

Next weekend, Up will be joined by light-hearted fare across the board. Night-of-abandon comedy The Hangover will battle with prehistoric comedy-adventure Land of the Lost. A smaller-scale release of romantic comedy My Life in Ruins, which stars Nia Vardalos of My Big Fat Greek Wedding fame, will round out Friday's offerings.