Another Academy Awards predictor joins the fray, 'Social Oscars'

The second site to try to "Nate Silver"
the Oscars is Social
Oscars. Back in mid-January, Screener reported on Farsite Forecast, which doles out each
nominee's percentage chance at winning the Oscars. Social Oscars, which social
media monitoring company Brandwatch created, takes a different route. The
company's interactive infographic compares which movies the critics think will
win to the ones that the public thinks will win. Surprisingly, the critics and
public are pretty much in agreement for most of the categories. There's rarely
more than a couple percentage points in

differences between the two, which may
not be even statistically significant since they don't mention the sample size.
However, some of their findings do back up the anecdotal feelings about races
in various categories.

In the Best Picture race, for example, more
critics (12%) are excited about Zero Dark Thirty than members of the
public (7%). Life of Pi's sentimentality played better with the public
(12%) than critics (9%). Argo has recently become the frontrunner for
Best Picture, unseating the early momentum of Zero Dark Thirty and the
solid, blue-chip choice of Steven Spielberg's Lincoln. If Argo
wins, the Social Oscars will have correctly picked the winner, since 23% of the
public and 19% of critics have voted this as their favorite.

The Social Oscars is a fun tool, but it overlooks
one big fact. Who wins the Oscars usually has only a loose correlation with the
popular and critical choices. For every winner like The King's Speech,
which was the 2010 victor and supported by both critics and audiences,
there's a movie that critics were rooting for but the public did not see in
theatres in big numbers (that describes 2011 winner The Artist or 2009
winner The Hurt Locker), or a popular favorite that's just good enough
or has some kind of special hook that convinces the Academy that it deserves
recognition (Gladiator, Titanic, Forrest Gump). The Oscars can
sometimes be an exercise in game theory (see 2001 Best Picture winner A
Beautiful Mind for a brush-up on that). Many critics distinguish between
the movies they like best and the movie that they think they will win,
sometimes developing subcategories like a movie they campaign for and want to
win, even while acknowledging another movie probably has a better shot. A
regular Joe may count nominee Django Unchained as the most enjoyable
picture of the year but feel that Argo is the better choice for a Best
Picture winner. The Social Oscars' infographic is an interesting tool to gauge
the relative popularity of the Best Picture choices, for example, but critical
and popular reaction are just one piece of the pie when it comes to the Oscars.

'Shutter Island' bests 'Cop Out' and 'The Crazies'

By Sarah Sluis

Despite the arrival of fresh competition, Shutter Island dropped less than 50% in its second weekend to hold onto the top spot for the second week in a row, earning $22.2 million. Director Martin Scorsese and star Leonardo DiCaprio are enjoying some of the best box office they've had in awhile, along with a $75 million cumulative gross.

Cop Out debuted in second with $18.5 million. The Kevin Smith-directed, humorous tale of two misfit cops opened higher than star Bruce Willis' previous movie, September's Surrogates. For Tracy Morgan of "30 Rock," this was his first headlining role. Unfortunately, our critic Ethan Alter found Morgan's "unpredictability," his "comic energy...at odds with the movie he's been cast in...it's hard to escape the feeling that he's been advised to keep himself in check." As a big fan of his character on "30 Rock," I only hope his next feature, the ensemble piece Death at a Funeral, will fix the problem.

Horror movie remake The Crazies had been building slowly in awareness, and ended up just $2 million short of Cop Out with a $16.5 million total. While many horror movies do the biggest business on Friday, this movie, like many others, peaked on Saturday with a 6% bump from Friday. The poor weather on the East Coast, which had largely cleared up by Saturday (at least in the New York area), may account for the unusually large Saturday bumps across the board. Shutter Island went up 55%, Cop Out 29%, and Avatar 114%.

Avatar astounded for yet another week with a minuscule 13% drop and another $14 million. After months of prodding, including one attempt thwarted by a sold-out show, my own parents finally saw the movie and pronounced the film "stunning." My scientist father was in awe of the 3D technology and apparently sat on the edge of his seat the whole time. Their reception matches the general word-of-mouth that exists for the movie, which has had astounding longevity at the box office. With the Academy Awards next Sunday, the movie will likely see another bump two weeks from now, once the awards tally is in.

The Ghost Writer added 39 locations this weekend and came away with a $20,000 per-location gross, which tipped the movie's cumulative gross over the $1 million mark. A 50% plus drop in per-location earnings is about standard for specialty films, and a $10,000 per location gross next week, combined with an expansion, would rack up millions of dollars for the film.

Sony Picture Classics' A Prophet debuted one week ahead of the Academy Awards, where it is nominated for Best Foreign Film. At nine locations, the prison drama brought in $18,800 per-location for a total of $170,000, a number that will increase in weeks ahead, especially if the movie, regarded as a frontrunner for the win, ends up with an Oscar.

This Friday, Alice in Wonderland will make its 3D and IMAX debut along with a decidedly different cop movie, Brooklyn's Finest.

Slow but steady future for 3D films, says PricewaterhouseCoopers

By Sarah Sluis

The move to 3D, in terms of film history, should play out more like color than sound. All films transitioned from silent to sound in a snap--just a few years. To not convert was to become a box-office failure. But color, like 3D, was reserved for specific genres, like historical epics, fantasy, and children's movies, before becoming more widespread. I took a few of PricewaterhouseCoopers' predictions on the future of 3D movies and gave my own take on how it will all play out.

"Most 3D live-action production will be limited to sci-fi, horror and concert genres" Yes, but this is changing. Avatar is sci-fi, but it's also a tentpole, an awards hopeful, a James Cameron movie and an action/environmental/romance movie. As films with multiple genre identities are made in 3D, it will become easier for those "romance/action/comedy" movies to be made. Just today, Variety announced that the sequel to Zombieland, a horror/comedy will be filmed in 3D. The next Jackass sequel, a documentary/action/comedy, will be made in 3D. With its emphasis on live, improv events, Jackass is a cousin of the concert film, a popular choice for 3D, but certainty not part of the genre itself.

"3D-animated slates at Disney and DreamWorks will be closely scrutinized by rivals." Maybe. As far as I'm concerned, animation is already a lock for 3D. Animation is a medium grounded in fantasy, not reality, making 3D a very natural variation. I would worry if these animation studios decided to make a movie in 2D, which would indicate a slipping in 3D's profitability. As it stands, both Pixar and DreamWorks Animation are committed to producing all their upcoming films in 3D.

"Slow growth through 2014...because of lingering budgetary and creative concerns" You can look at this from the production side, but the audience side is just as important. A lot of people are resistant to seeing 3D movies because of their stereotype as a gimmicky concept that takes away from the narrative. That's not the case. As a former skeptic myself, watching movies like Coraline, Up, and even The Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Experience "glasses on" made those movies better. In the case of concert movies, 3D helps amp up the spectacle and gives a heightened sense of reality. No, you don't actually feel like you're there, but the dimensionality gives you a sense of the landscape, and the camera movements always make sure you have the best seat in the house. Up, compared to Coraline or Monsters vs. Aliens, uses very restrained 3D. The filmmakers either didn't author it in 3D from start to finish, but added it in later, or they chose to avoid having the images pop up and behind in a striking (and perhaps detracting) way. Takeaway point: 3D is flexible. It's not always about making you think something is coming right at you, but subtly adding depth of field. If 3D is adopted by dramas, comedies, and romances, I suspect this restrained look will be the norm. Regardless, watching a film with glasses is on its way to becoming a normal part of the moviegoing experience.

'2012' to blow up at the box office

By Sarah Sluis

Today, 2012 will bring disaster to 3,404 theatres nationwide. Filled with unbelievable near-death escapes, and a survival mechanism called the "atomic-age equivalent of Noah's ark," the movie's strong suit is that it doesn't take itself too seriously. With this framework, the implausibilities go down much easier. While crowds will turn out for the special effects, the disaster theme is getting old. Add in the recession, and the movie could play either way: "My world is already collapsing, so why bother to see civilization collapse?" or "Well, I should see it. It will remind me things could be worse." The doom-and-gloom spectacle is expected to open at $40 million.

A movie rescued and repackaged from its unsuccessful British release, Pirate Radio, will open in 882 theatres. Previously titled The Boat That Rocked, it bowed to a disappointing run in Britain at a considerably bloated running time. It was given to Focus Features, edited, and re-marketed, so its performance will be a reflection of the success of Focus' efforts.

Joining Where the Wild Things Are as a kiddie movie with a hipster, adult feel, Fantastic Mr. Fox opens in four theatres (NY/LA) before expanding in coming weeks. The stop-motion animated film employs a style less like Coraline and more like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer: deliberately stilted. Our critic Ethan Alter called it "not necessarily...a great children's movie, but...a pretty fantastic Wes Anderson film." Having seen it myself, I can say it's fun to see Wes Anderson's signature style--his straight-on framing and penchant for stylized dialogue, to name two--melded with writer Roald Dahl's material and presented in stop-motion animation. By drawing in (perhaps confused) children, families, and adult Wes Anderson fans, the movie stands to make a buck without having to rob the three biggest chicken producers in town.

Opening in four theatres in New York and Washington D.C., The Messenger has already drawn warm reviews from critics, a promising sign given critic Justin Lowe's warning that the "delicate subject matter could be a tough sell in a marketplace still averse to accounts of the conflict; careful handling is required." By "gingerly [probing] wounds that are still healing with admirable empathy and insight," this war-themed film appeals both to soldiers and military families as well as those isolated from the impact of the U.S.'s wars.

Also opening today is William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe (New York/Boston), a documentary about the civil rights lawyer who alienated almost everyone--including his two young daughters--when he started defending those guilty in the eyes of the American public, including an accused terrorist.

The kind of movie I would have enjoyed in high school, Dare, debuts today in New York and L.A. Though critic James Greenberg predicted most people won't see the movie until it hits cable, the high school-set movie is "a smart and well-observed entry in the genre [and] a cut above the usual hijinks."

On Monday, we'll see what kind of damage 2012 did on the box office, if Pirate Radio's re-marketing paid off, and if last week's big winner, Precious: Based on the Story 'Push' by Sapphire, can sustain its performance as it expands to 174 theatres.

Studios stacking the deck to create 5 nominees for Best Animated Feature

By Sarah Sluis

This year will be the ninth year of the Motion Picture Academy's "Best Animated Feature" category. Between computer animation, 3D premiums, and the incredible quality of films produced by studios like Pixar, the field will be as competitive as ever this year. Because of the volume of submissions this year, the Academy will likely boost the number of nominees from three to five. The bump in nominees happened once before, in 2002, and occurs when the number of eligible films is greater than 16. To be eligible, the movie must have a qualifying release and an Academy-produced average score of 7.5 (but on the odd scale of 6-10).

The 20 submitted features, along with my predictions, are below. The locks for nominations are bolded and underlined. Films with strong chances of being nominated are bolded.

• Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel: The first one made a surprising amount of money, though it did not secure a nomination. Don't count on the squeakquel receiving one either.



• Astro Boy: Without making a splash at the box office, a critical assent would come as a surprise.



• Battle for Terra: A clunker several years in the making. My guess to be excluded from the running.



• Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs: The crowd-pleaser could surprise with a nomination



• Coraline: A lock for a nomination. Incredible story, visuals, and stop-motion technique. Read the review here.



• Disney's A Christmas Carol: Potential nominee, which would be a first for a film using director Robert Zemeckis' performance-capture technique.



• The Dolphin - Story of a Dreamer: A straight-to-DVD film given a qualifying run to boost the amount of eligible films.



• Fantastic Mr. Fox: Potential nominee. Wes Anderson received an Oscar nomination in 2001 for his screenplay of The Royal Tenenbaums.



• Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs: The first Ice Age was nominated, but the sequel was not. The third probably won't either, despite its status as the third highest-grossing film in international box-office history..



• Mary and Max: This adult indie film has Philip Seymour Hoffman and the winners of an Oscar-winning short behind it, but it might be too low-profile.



• The Missing Lynx: a small, Spanish film unlikely to receive a nod.



• Monsters vs. Aliens: If Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs is nomination-worthy, then so is this film.



• 9: An adult-oriented movie that could receive a nomination



• Planet 51: More likely to be a box-office winner than nominee.



• Ponyo: Disney-released Spirited Away, an anime film, won in 2002, and Howl's Moving Castle was nominated in 2005. Both were directed by Hayao Miyazaki. But some felt Ponyo fell flat.



• The Princess and the Frog: If this movie resonates with viewers and Oscar voters, I predict it will be nominated.



• The Secret of Kells: The trailer animation looks uneven and not up to snuff.



• Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure: Disney's straight-to-DVD release given a qualifying run to boost the chance on the nominees going to five.



• A Town Called Panic: The trailer looks cute, but only Sony Pictures Classics (The Triplets of Belleville and Persepolis) and the aforementioned Miyazaki films have has ever successfully secured a nomination for a foreign animated film.



• Up: a lock for nomination, and in all likelihood the winner. Read the rave review here.

Having an Academy-nominated film can certainly help boost DVD sales and rentals from inquisitive Oscar ceremony viewers (although with the DVD market tanking, maybe not so much). But this year, Up seems like a lock on the Animated Feature category. Press attention could be drawn away from the category as a whole, making nominee status not as valuable. Coraline, to me, is the only likely upset. Plus, with the Academy skewing older, the hero of Up, the old man, is one of their own. What's not to love? Even with five nominees, Pixar shows all signs of continuing their winning streak.

'Zombieland' to take over theatres

By Sarah Sluis

Zombieland (3,036 theatres) is the top pick for #1 this weekend, since its blanket release puts it in nearly twice as many theatres as the other wide releases. The horror comedy "has its tongue planted

firmly in its rancid cheek while still delivering the visceral

goodies," and its twist on the horror genre should attract die-hard and sometimes horror fans alike.

The other three wide releases of the week are each opening in around 1,700 theatres, smaller-scale releases that match each of the movie's strategies.

Roller derby tale Whip It, which is already benefiting from positive word-of-mouth, will open in 1,720 theatres after sneaking in half that number last week. Women seem to love the movie, and opening smaller will put emphasis on its subsequent weekends rather than its opening weekend. Those that love the film (myself included) are struck by how it breathes life into the familiar coming-of-age genre. Critic Peter Brunette called it "familiar yet simultaneously different...loaded with clichs...but somehow writer Shauna Cross...manages to continually inflect the story with fresh twists."

Prepping for the release of Toy Story 3 in June, Toy Story and Toy Story 2 will be released as a 3D double feature in 1,745 theatres. The run is planned for two weeks, but will be extended based on performance. Industry insiders are pegging the film's opening in the $10 million range, but a re-release like this is so rare I wouldn't be surprised if normal tracking measures fail. The movie's biggest competitor is 3D animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which is going into its third week. The re-release will undoubtedly bump Cloudy from some of its 3D venues, which could affect both of the films' standing.

Ricky Gervais-Jennifer Garner comedy The Invention of Lying is also opening small (1,707 theatres), but perhaps that's indicative of its quality: low. Critic Rex Roberts called it a "self-indulgent, ultimately unsatisfying skit-that-won't-quit." Ouch.

On the specialty circuit, Capitalism: A Love Story expands to 962 theatres, its first wide expansion. LeBron James documentary More Than a Game, a "superb, slam-dunk documentary " that follows a quartet of talented basketball players, including James, through high school and beyond will also open in New York, Los Angeles, and Cleveland.

The Coen Brothers' A Serious Man, sure to appeal fans of the writer/director/producers, opens in New York, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis this weekend. Our critic Ethan Alter praised the "subtle, humorous way the film tackles such complex subjects as morality, faith and family," calling this personal, "darkly comic" film one of the Coens' best.

On Monday, we'll circle back to see how many viewers Zombieland infected, if audience members took the bait for The Invention of Lying, and how well word-of-mouth was built up for Whip It.

'District 9' and 'Time Traveler's Wife' challenge 'G.I. Joe'

By Sarah Sluis

This week, five films are opening wide, offering audiences a diverse variety to choose from. District 9 and The Time Traveler's Wife are expected to be the two top earners this weekend, with Ponyo, Bandslam, and The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard coming in somewhere behind. With no film expected to pull in more than $20-25 million, G.I. Joe could grab the top spot if it falls roughly 50%, which would put it at $27 million. However, its middling reviews could easily send it plunging to number three, behind District 9 and The Time Traveler's Wife.

District 9 (3,049 screens) frames its tale of aliens through the lens of South African apartheid. Years ago, an alien ship stopped over Johannesburg, filled with sick, weak extraterrestrials. They were set up in refugee camps, which quickly turned into shantytowns, and acquired the status of second-class citizens, complete with their own derogatory slur, "prawn." District 9 "flirts with greatness," but it never quite gets there. Still, it's worth seeing for the first half alone, which combines documentary footage and interviews with people alluding to "the event" that makes you insatiably curious for what is to come.

People who managed not only to get through Audrey Niffenegger's book, but to list it as one of their favorites on Facebook will undoubtedly enjoy The Time Traveler's Wife (2,988 screens). Everyone else, steer clear. The movie suffers from the same faults of the book, and fails to deliver anything beyond its novel premise. Manohla Dargis from the NY Times points out what everyone else is afraid to say--the movie is "creepy" and the scenes with a six-year-old Claire and a forty-something man don't quite work on-screen. The movie is too heavy on fate and light on characterization: the characters just fall in love without any real courtship of explanation, assuming that perhaps you, too, would instantly fall in love with a naked time traveler from the future if he arrived in your backyard. While audience members sniffled at the end of my screening, I think it's a problem when the biggest emotional scenes in the movie--like the wedding--elicit laughs, instead of the longing or fulfillment experienced by the characters.

Releasing on a tight 927 screens, Ponyo should charm audiences who are fans of director Hayao Miyazaki, as well as those interested in a change from the U.S. style of feature-length animation. With the amount of kid's television programming out there featuring dubbed anime, it may be parents who are more surprised by the "gorgeous 2D animation" and Miyazaki's use of the unexpected, like "rising waves sprouting ominous eyes" Overall, our Executive Editor Kevin Lally deems this "artist's unceasing sense of wonder...something every parent should encourage their children to experience."

Reviews for Bandslam (2,121 screens) came out shortly after John Hughes' death, leading reviewer Michael Rechtshaffen to speculate that if "Cameron Crowe and the late John Hughes collaborated on a movie populated by Disney Channel superstars, the result might have looked and sounded a lot like Todd Graff's Bandslam." The movie sounds a little like the "let's put on a show" movies so popular in the earlier days of Hollywood, but with a believable modern update. It's expected to open low, perhaps due to not enough marketing, but "there's plenty to keep post-tween audiences amused."

Jeremy Piven makes "Entourage," but it appears he can't rescue The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard (1,838 screens) from its wacky jokes that go all over the place but fail to cohere into a story or consistent comedy. Instead, they end up "pounding the viewer into submission but not in a particularly amused way." This comedy will likely appeal to fans of Piven or Will Ferrell, who executive produced the film and appears in a cameo.

Monday, we'll see how these five new movies fared this weekend, and which films they knocked down or out of the top ten.

'Marley & Me' charms holiday audiences

By Sarah Sluis

When I expressed my skepticism over Marley & Me (a little too adorable-looking, don't you think?), a friend's mother, who had been hyping the film to me, asked if I was ever a dog owner. If I wasn't, she

said, I just wouldn't understand.

Considering the popularity of pooches among families--and that includes critics--PG-rated Marley & Me proved to be the most enticing option for families over the holiday weekend. The critical applause, included that of our reviewer Doris Toumarkine, who called Marley & Me "[P]erfect holiday entertainment. Families, dog lovers and even demanding breeds of filmgoers will adore it." These thumbs-ups helped pull the film to a $51 million finish, 30% more than the runner up, younger-skewing Bedtime Stories.

It makes sense: Marley & Me appealed to families with teen and adult children (my friend's family falling in that category), while Bedtime Stories targeted the narrower crowd that's still telling bedtime stories to each other. The dog-themed success, coupled with this year's earlier surprise smash, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, must be making studios scratch their heads looking around for another dog title to put into development. However, I chance that eventually there will be a burnout in pet pictures. January's kid-adventurer picture Hotel for Dogs might be the canary-in-a-coal-mine test to see if there's any dog-related viewing fatigue. After all, even playing fetch gets old after awhile.

Other family pleasers Yes Man, Seven Pounds, and The Tale of Despereaux, which finished 1-2-3 last week, moved down to fifth, sixth, and seventh, each dropping a similar amount from last week's open. As audiences see their second- and third-pick movies over the coming weeks, one might break ranks and rise above the others.

For adults, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button earned $39 million over the Christmas holiday, while Valkyrie made off with $30 million. Button's expected awards campaign should keep it in a top position in coming weeks, while Valkyrie dies off (just like the hero's Nazi coup!).

Among awards contenders, Revolutionary Road earned the most per-screen, bringing in a $64,000 per-screen average at each of its six locations for a total of $196,000. Waltz with Bashir, a Christmas day-opener set in Israel with special appeal to Jewish filmgoers, earned $10,240 per-screen across five locations, taking advantage of the informal Christmas day viewing tradition among Jews. Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino expanded to 84 locations, but kept its per-screen average at $29,048, bringing its cumulative total to $4.3 million. Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire earned in the $7,000 per-screen range, a performance mitigated by being in a wider release and over a month old. Awards voters are a finicky bunch, but having your opinions reinforced by a wider audience certainly helps when it comes to statuette success.

Full box-office estimates available here.

'Bolt' and 'Twilight' to satisfy the young (at heart)

By Sarah Sluis

Twilight (3,419 screens) debuted with sold-out midnight screenings last night, and finished at #5 among all-time pre-sold tickets (per Movietickets.com), right below The Dark Knight.  With the help of "Twilight Moms," the most obvious expansion of the teen girl demographic turning out for the film, the
vampire romance will continue to sell out screenings throughout the weekend.  Among non-Twilight-reading and Twilight-reading critics, the film has inspired polarized opinions.  A decent portion have acknowledged the film's ability to pull heartstrings despite some corny moments, but for others, like our critic Ethan Alter, those moments, combined with some trite camera setups and technical sloppiness, make the film unbearable.  A friend who accompanied the press screening called Twilight "teen fantasy reduced to its most basic form.   There is something so pure about a film that doesn't try to trick you into thinking it's clever, or appealing to anyone outside its demographic.  It's exactly the film for exactly its audience.  That's rare."

Bolt (3,651 screens) opens after a non buzz-generating sneak preview last weekend.  With a large portion of the screens exhibiting in 3D, the film will receive a boost in revenue from higher ticket prices
at those venues.  A solid film, our executive editor Kevin Lally called Bolt "an unpretentious, consistently entertaining romp...with plenty of heart".  As Lally notes, the breakout press story is that of Disney animator Mark Walton.  A hyperactive fanboy who naturally possesses hamster-like qualities, his scratch recording of the hamster Rhino was so good, it made it into the final film.  Coupled with the celebrity voices of Miley Cyrus, John Travola, and "Curb Your Enthusiasm"'s Susie Essman, the film should please adults and kids alike.

On the specialty side, The Boy in the Striped Pajamas expands to 406 screens, Muslim-lesbian romantic drama I Can't Think Straight opens on 3 screens, drug-induced superhero hallucination picture Special debuts on 1 screen, and Laotian immigrant documentary The Betrayal (Nerakhoon) opens at New York City's IFC Theatre.