'2 Guns' joins 'Smurfs 2,' but both want to be number one

This year has been exceptionally crowded when it comes to animated features, which doesn't bode well for the U.S. release of The Smurfs 2 (3,866 theatres). The original Smurf outing opened over $30 million in 2011, and a similar result for the sequel would be good, especially because the
biggest grosses are expected abroad. But what's to prevent families from choosing Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Epic, or Monsters University instead? There's only so many times parents can take their kids to the movies. THR's Justin Lowe thinks that parents will just give in, predicting that the animated feature "should have little trouble scaling stratospheric heights
similar to its predecessor with undiscriminating young audiences
and their chaperones, weary from near-unrelenting summertime
caregiving." Perhaps for some, The Smurfs 2 will provide that respite, as the blueberry-tinged creatures use their "curious blend of wide-eyed optimism and
goofy enthusiasm" to solve problems.

Denzel Washington is a sure thing at the box office, and that's what Universal will be counting on
for 2 Guns (3,025 theatres), which teams up the action star with Mark Wahlberg. The buddy cop feature with bits of comedy thrown in is "fun to watch but almost instantly forgettable," according to FJI critic Daniel Eagan, who compares it to "the B-movies of an earlier generation," meaning "it's
fast, tough and smarter than it has to be." Like The Smurfs 2, 2 Guns is aiming for an opening north of $30 million. The Smurfs 2 released starting Wednesday, when it earned $5.2 million, so it's unclear whether that early opening will help it gain steam or if it may slow down more quickly over the weekend.

There's also plenty going on at the indie box office. The writers of (500) Days of Summer adapted the script for The Spectacular Now (4 theatres), which earned raves at the Sundance Film Festival and is another excellent showcase for rising star Shailene Woodley, who appeared as George Clooney's daughter in The Descendants. The high-school set coming-of-age story "deserves to
reach a wide demographic," says critic Kevin Lally, "Its most appreciative audience may very
well be an older art-house crowd; the crossover to watch is the
teen segment." A24, which released teen pics The Bling Ring and Spring Breakers, will try to repeat its formula of attracting cinephiles and young viewers with the picture.

The found-footage genre goes into deep space in Europa Report (3 theatres), which critic Nick Schager praises for being a "well-executed, thematically intriguing tale of outer space
exploration and the responsibilities and risks such an enterprise
entails." Then there's Lindsay Lohan and James Deen pairing up for The Canyons (1 theatre), which our critic Doris Toumarkine predicts will be "catnip for Gawker/TMZ-loving loyalists but also won’t disappoint more demanding viewers."

On Monday, we'll see if audiences chose The Smurfs 2 or 2 Guns, and which of the specialty releases is on track to have a strong expansion through the rest of August.

'Identity Thief' may rise to the top as 'Snitch' and 'Dark Skies' provide weak competition

In the doldrums of late February, two new releases will hit theatres this weekend, Snitch and Dark Skies. But neither of those should go far over $10 million, making it likely a holdover like Identity Thief will return to the number one spot. This Sunday is the Oscars, so nominated films should also see a boost in ticket sales. Next week, the impact from the winners should be even higher.

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock) stars in Snitch (2,511 theatres) as a father who goes undercover to save his son from imprisonment. Critic Daniel Eagan describes the action film as unusually socially
conscious, "[dealing] honestly with issues like peer pressure, prison
rape, broken families, limited opportunities for ex-cons—to say
nothing of the alarming statistics several characters deliver about
mandatory sentencing." That focus on the "human cost" makes this less of the mindless entertainment that fans may expect, which could potentially hurt the action offering's ratings in exit polls and word-of-mouth.

The thriller Dark Skies (2,313 theatres) will round out the new offerings this weekend. Marketing has focused on the fact that this comes from the producers of Paranormal Activity and Insidious. The trickling of reviews that have come in so far indicate that this alien abduction story doesn't have a lot going for it, so it may open
to $10 million or so and then blow out quickly.

The Hispanic box office is much-coveted piece of the theatrical pie these days. Bless Me Ultima, an adaptation of a 1972 coming-of-age novel that has become a touchstone of Chicano literature, will have a small release in 263 theatres. That could be enough to bring the movie over $1 million if it targets theatres that usually do well with Hispanic-leaning fare.

The current top twenty includes seven of the nine Best Picture Oscar nominees: Silver Linings Playbook (5th), Zero Dark Thirty (10th), Life of Pi (12th), Argo (13th), Lincoln (15th), Django Unchained (16th), and Les Miserables (17th). These movies should continue to play strongly this week and for a month or so after the Oscars. This is one good year, where great movies are racking up great returns from the box office.

On Monday, we'll evaluate the box office and weigh in on the results of Sunday night's Oscars.