‘Lone Survivor’ stands tall at no. 1

Looks like audiences agree with Lone Survivor’s marketing team, which has been heralding the Afghanistan combat drama as the best war film since Saving Private Ryan.  It certainly made one of the strongest debuts among its genre cohorts, pulling in higher opening-weekend numbers than both Zero Dark Thirty ($24.4 million) and Black Hawk Down ($28.6 million). Survivor’s weekend haul of $38.5 million also far exceeded Universal’s conservative estimates – the studio had the movie tracking somewhere in the high teens – and, most impressively, has earned the film the title of second-most impressive January bow. The only other movie to have had a stronger January opening was Cloverfield, which grossed $40.1 million in 2008.

Many pundits are attributing the film’s success to a savvy promotional campaign that highlights the real-life heroism of its protagonist SEALs, while downplaying the fraught political implications that still surround the American invasion abroad. Whatever the initial appeal, critics and audiences alike are standing firm behind the movie, which has earned a rare A+ CinemaScore rating. The Mark Wahlberg-starrer should continue to hold strong in the weeks ahead.

It was an older crowd that helped lead Lone Survivor to victory over the weekend (the film’s demographic breakdown was 57% over the age of 30, as well as 57% male), while younger, and one would assume many repeat, viewers were (still) lining up for Frozen. The animated box-office behemoth has earned $317.7 million to date, and can now boast a Golden Globe win for the year’s Best Animated Feature to boot.

It’s unlikely the aforementioned honor will surprise anyone who’s leant an attentive ear to industry buzz of late, but the continued ascent of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street might. After getting off to an OK start at the box office, the comedy/drama has steadily risen among the weekend’s rankings. Likely benefitting from continued controversy surrounding its debauched subjects, Wolf earned $9 this weekend to bump its overall gross to $78.6 million. Star Leonardo DiCaprio’s Golden Globe win last night may give the movie an additional boost this coming weekend. Estimates surrounding the film’s eventual total cume continue to expand: As of this morning, general consensus has Wolf topping out at well over $100 million by the time it leaves theatres.

David O. Russell’s crowd-pleaser American Hustle has already reached that milestone, officially crossing the $100-million mark as of yesterday. Another big Golden Globe winner (stars Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence both took home statuettes last night, and the film as a whole won for Best Musical or Comedy), Hustle grossed $8.6 million this weekend. The film tied with The Legend of Hercules for fourth place. That amounts to another strong showing for Hustle, but an underwhelming debut for the latest sword-and-sandal epic. Hopefully, The Rock’s take on the oft-adapted Greek legend will fare better this summer.

In fifth place, August: Osage County reaped $7.3 million from 905 locations. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones performed as expected, slipping roughly 66% to earn $6.3 million. It remains on track to become the franchise’s least successful offering yet.

Unfortunately for specialty enthusiasts, two critically favored films also underperformed. Her earned $5.4 million, which, while in itself not a terrible figure, is nonetheless fairly weak considering the number of theatres in which the film screened (1,729). And although Inside Llewyn Davis seemed to connect with coastal audiences, averaging about $100,000 per theatre when it opened in NY and LA, it struggled to find a wider viewership. From 729 locations, Davis grossed just over $1 million. Let’s see if the continued onward march of awards season can do anything for these two struggling originals.

‘Hercules’ to fall in step behind ‘Lone Survivor’

If early tracking reports bear out, the son of Zeus is no match for the U.S. Navy SEALs (now there’s an infomercial for you). Lone Survivor, the critically acclaimed war drama starring Mark Wahlberg and based on a real-life disastrous, albeit heroic, 2005 SEALs mission in Afghanistan, expands wide to 2,876 theatres today. Comparable combat films Zero Dark Thirty and Black Hawk Down managed to pull in figures in the low-to-mid $20-million range over their opening weekends (in 2012 and 2001, respectively), setting mid-January precedents many believe Lone Survivor could easily match. Universal, however, has released more conservative estimates, predicting their film will bow somewhere in the high teens.

The other high-profile release opening nationwide this weekend, The Legend of Hercules, isn’t expected to make its competitors work hard for their survival. Although promos have Kellan Lutz looking appropriately muscular, and the CGI visuals boasting the appropriate fanboy aesthetic, there’s been little advance hype, from either critics or fans, surrounding this latest variation on the 300 formula. Hercules will likely haul in around $10 million, and may not even crack the weekend’s Top 5. However, those still gunning for an epic take on the epic tale of a son-of-a-god can rest assured: Brett Ratner will release his version, starring The Rock, this July. If that doesn’t do it for you, there’s always the Zealot: The Life and Times of Jesus of Nazareth adaptation.

Over in the specialty realm, Spike Jonze’s Her is poised to expand to 1,729 locations. The quirky tale of fraught love between man and machine has so far earned $3.2 million and received generally favorable reviews, though given its strange/original subject matter, pundits are unsure of its continued success. Similar oddball titles, such as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Lost in Translation, however, managed to play very well, so we’ll see if cerebral cinemagoers can help Her reach the $5 million mark.

Finally, August: Osage County and Inside Llewyn Davis will also continue their rollouts. August will screen in 905 theatres, while Llewyn will play in 729.

In sum, the weekend’s breakdown will likely go something like this:

1. Lone Survivor


2. Frozen (No, audiences can’t let it go)


3. The Wolf of Wall Street


4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug


5. American Hustle

 

'Lone Survivor': Another gritty war movie like 'Zero Dark Thirty'?

After so many summer tentpoles flopped, there's already worry in Hollywood that a crowded fall of adult-leaning prestige releases, which includes Captain Philips, Rush, and The Fifth Estate, will mean at least one movie will end up completely being overrun by the competition. Additionally, all three of the above releases are biographical (Commercial ship captain, racecar driver, and Wikileaks creator, respectively), which is yet another story trend that appears to be picking up speed. Lone Survivor will release after the fall rush but in the midst of the holiday one, on December 27. The trailer for the movie released today, which makes the military procedural appear like Zero Dark Thirty, although with flourishes that render the movie more Heartland and military base-friendly, like a SEAL reciting his military credo, and an inspirational song that plays against the trailer's images of the firefight.

Like Best Picture Oscar nominee ZDT, Lone Survivor is based on a true story. It takes place in 2005, when a group of SEALs engages Al Qaeda in an epic firefight that, as the title suggests, does not have a good outcome for the group. Mark Wahlberg and Eric Bana star, and Friday Night Lights director Peter Berg, hopefully recovering from the poor showing of another Universal picture last year, Battleship, is at the helm. Check out the trailer below.

 

'Max' is painful, 'Bees' has too much honey

By Sarah Sluis

Safely clear of the September dumping ground, this week has four wide releases--with only one, Max Payne, a phone-it-in stinker.  Our critic Ethan Alter wrote this of Max Payne: "a profound feeling of
laziness hovers over the entire picture, suggesting that it was as
joyless to make as it is to watch."

Poor Mark Wahlberg.  While 3,376 theatres will be out of commission screening this video game
adaptation, hopefully teen and twentysomething guys who bought the video game will instead choose to see Sex Drive, a Summit Entertainment release opening on 2,421 screens.  In a vote of confidence on its quality, the marketing campaign released the first ten minutes of Sex Drive (warning: this is R-rated material), and the film carries a brisk momentum out of the gate.  Director/writer Sean Anders does an understated, cinematic representation of an IM conversation that's worth checking out, projecting the conversation to the side in a way that feels natural and real.  The L.A. Times review also spoke to the integration of social technology in the movie, noting that "teen comedies that are remembered tap into something fundamental
about their time, and here Anders smartly finds a way for many of the
characters' most embarrassing moments to be somehow caught on tape" and end up on YouTube.

"Honey-glazed," "too much honey," "not the bees knees," The Secret Life of Bees also opens today on
1,591 screens--a strategic move that will pack or sell out theatres and encourage word-of-mouth reviews.  Critics haven't been able to resist using "honey" to describe this film, though some find the film exceeding their tolerance for glucose.  As a book club pick for groups across the country, the movie adaptation will undoubtedly attract women who've read the novel.  If they hold true to marketers' perceptions of female audiences, they won't make it a priority to see the film opening weekend, but will likely see it once the reviews from the friends start trickling in.  What is too sweet for reviewers is often just right for the Milk Duds crowd, so I predict this film will look better in its third week than its first.

Fewer Americans may have tuned in for the third presidential debate, but W., opening on 2,030 screens, plans to capture their attention at the box office.  In a surprising consensus, reviewers of W. have noted that the film goes out of its way to come off as--let me borrow a catchphrase from Fox News--fair and balanced.  Wisely limiting the scope of the film to origins, Stone portrays Bush's ascent to the White House as a bumbling and at times tragic accident.

The diversity of this week's lineup makes predictions a tough call.  I predict a pleasantly surprising take from Sex Drive, a top three finish for W. (this is pushing it), and for Max Payne to burn brightly this week before falling sharply.  As an action picture opening on over 3,000 screens, a number one finish seems probable, but I would like nothing better than for another one of these three pictures to make a statement by coming in at number one.