‘I, Frankenstein,’ takes up the rear far behind ‘Ride Along’

Fantasy/action retread I, Frankenstein suffered through its own version of a horror story this past weekend. The movie failed to crack the weekend’s Top 5, let alone claim the No. 2 or 3 slot as befits a big-budget wide release. Instead, I, Frankenstein bombed with $8.3 million. Even worse than The Legend of Hercules’ opening figure ($8.9 million), and roughly half of last year’s comparable title Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters’ debut, Frankenstein’s haul landed the film at No. 6. Expect the DOA would-be franchise to flame out very soon, most likely to less than $20 million.

On the other hand, expect Ride Along to cruise past an overall gross of $100 million by the end of its theatrical run – and potentially towards a sequel. For the second weekend in a row the cop comedy earned the No. 1 spot at the box office. Along raked in $21.2 million, bumping its 10-day cume to $75.4 million.

Another Universal film, Lone Survivor, took second place with $12.6 million. This is the second consecutive weekend the top two spots have been occupied by movies distributed by Universal  – the last time a distributor achieved this feat was back in 1994, when Warner Bros. titles On Deadly Ground and Ace Ventura: Pet Detective both ruled the box office. Having earned $93.6 million so far, Lone Survivor will likely out-gross Zero Dark Thirty, which earned $95.7 million, by the end of the week.

The Nut Job continues to hold well, having accumulated $12.3 million and thus securing the weekend’s No. 3 position.  That figure marks a drop of 37% from last week, and has boosted the film’s domestic earnings to $40.3 million in total.

Continuing to afford pundits and journalists ample opportunity to play off the title of its hit song, “Let It Go,” Frozen refuses to do just that when it comes to its hold on the box office. The animated success moved up a bit this weekend to the No. 4 position, enjoying $9.04 million in sales. It is now officially the highest-grossing original animated movie of all time. Yet another boost may be imminent, as Disney plans to release a sing-along version nationwide this coming weekend.

This same nation has more or less opted to take a pass on the new Jack Ryan reboot. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit rounds out the weekend’s Top 5 with its $8.8 million gross. The movie’s overall cume to date is less than that which the last Jack Ryan attempt, The Sum of All Fears, managed to earn at this same point in its theatrical run a decade ago. Shadow Recruit now stands at $30.2 million.

When it comes to specialty features and, as is the case with the following films, awards contenders, Dallas Buyers Club enjoyed the benefits of a wider release (earning $2.05 million from $1,110 locations) while Nebraska took in $1.44 million from 968 theatres. Right now Nebraska has earned the least of amount of money of the nine Best Picture Academy Awards nominees, while as of this morning Club's  total domestic gross clocked in at $20.4 million.

‘Lone Survivor’ stands tall at no. 1

Looks like audiences agree with Lone Survivor’s marketing team, which has been heralding the Afghanistan combat drama as the best war film since Saving Private Ryan.  It certainly made one of the strongest debuts among its genre cohorts, pulling in higher opening-weekend numbers than both Zero Dark Thirty ($24.4 million) and Black Hawk Down ($28.6 million). Survivor’s weekend haul of $38.5 million also far exceeded Universal’s conservative estimates – the studio had the movie tracking somewhere in the high teens – and, most impressively, has earned the film the title of second-most impressive January bow. The only other movie to have had a stronger January opening was Cloverfield, which grossed $40.1 million in 2008.

Many pundits are attributing the film’s success to a savvy promotional campaign that highlights the real-life heroism of its protagonist SEALs, while downplaying the fraught political implications that still surround the American invasion abroad. Whatever the initial appeal, critics and audiences alike are standing firm behind the movie, which has earned a rare A+ CinemaScore rating. The Mark Wahlberg-starrer should continue to hold strong in the weeks ahead.

It was an older crowd that helped lead Lone Survivor to victory over the weekend (the film’s demographic breakdown was 57% over the age of 30, as well as 57% male), while younger, and one would assume many repeat, viewers were (still) lining up for Frozen. The animated box-office behemoth has earned $317.7 million to date, and can now boast a Golden Globe win for the year’s Best Animated Feature to boot.

It’s unlikely the aforementioned honor will surprise anyone who’s leant an attentive ear to industry buzz of late, but the continued ascent of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street might. After getting off to an OK start at the box office, the comedy/drama has steadily risen among the weekend’s rankings. Likely benefitting from continued controversy surrounding its debauched subjects, Wolf earned $9 this weekend to bump its overall gross to $78.6 million. Star Leonardo DiCaprio’s Golden Globe win last night may give the movie an additional boost this coming weekend. Estimates surrounding the film’s eventual total cume continue to expand: As of this morning, general consensus has Wolf topping out at well over $100 million by the time it leaves theatres.

David O. Russell’s crowd-pleaser American Hustle has already reached that milestone, officially crossing the $100-million mark as of yesterday. Another big Golden Globe winner (stars Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence both took home statuettes last night, and the film as a whole won for Best Musical or Comedy), Hustle grossed $8.6 million this weekend. The film tied with The Legend of Hercules for fourth place. That amounts to another strong showing for Hustle, but an underwhelming debut for the latest sword-and-sandal epic. Hopefully, The Rock’s take on the oft-adapted Greek legend will fare better this summer.

In fifth place, August: Osage County reaped $7.3 million from 905 locations. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones performed as expected, slipping roughly 66% to earn $6.3 million. It remains on track to become the franchise’s least successful offering yet.

Unfortunately for specialty enthusiasts, two critically favored films also underperformed. Her earned $5.4 million, which, while in itself not a terrible figure, is nonetheless fairly weak considering the number of theatres in which the film screened (1,729). And although Inside Llewyn Davis seemed to connect with coastal audiences, averaging about $100,000 per theatre when it opened in NY and LA, it struggled to find a wider viewership. From 729 locations, Davis grossed just over $1 million. Let’s see if the continued onward march of awards season can do anything for these two struggling originals.

‘Hercules’ to fall in step behind ‘Lone Survivor’

If early tracking reports bear out, the son of Zeus is no match for the U.S. Navy SEALs (now there’s an infomercial for you). Lone Survivor, the critically acclaimed war drama starring Mark Wahlberg and based on a real-life disastrous, albeit heroic, 2005 SEALs mission in Afghanistan, expands wide to 2,876 theatres today. Comparable combat films Zero Dark Thirty and Black Hawk Down managed to pull in figures in the low-to-mid $20-million range over their opening weekends (in 2012 and 2001, respectively), setting mid-January precedents many believe Lone Survivor could easily match. Universal, however, has released more conservative estimates, predicting their film will bow somewhere in the high teens.

The other high-profile release opening nationwide this weekend, The Legend of Hercules, isn’t expected to make its competitors work hard for their survival. Although promos have Kellan Lutz looking appropriately muscular, and the CGI visuals boasting the appropriate fanboy aesthetic, there’s been little advance hype, from either critics or fans, surrounding this latest variation on the 300 formula. Hercules will likely haul in around $10 million, and may not even crack the weekend’s Top 5. However, those still gunning for an epic take on the epic tale of a son-of-a-god can rest assured: Brett Ratner will release his version, starring The Rock, this July. If that doesn’t do it for you, there’s always the Zealot: The Life and Times of Jesus of Nazareth adaptation.

Over in the specialty realm, Spike Jonze’s Her is poised to expand to 1,729 locations. The quirky tale of fraught love between man and machine has so far earned $3.2 million and received generally favorable reviews, though given its strange/original subject matter, pundits are unsure of its continued success. Similar oddball titles, such as Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Lost in Translation, however, managed to play very well, so we’ll see if cerebral cinemagoers can help Her reach the $5 million mark.

Finally, August: Osage County and Inside Llewyn Davis will also continue their rollouts. August will screen in 905 theatres, while Llewyn will play in 729.

In sum, the weekend’s breakdown will likely go something like this:

1. Lone Survivor


2. Frozen (No, audiences can’t let it go)


3. The Wolf of Wall Street


4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug


5. American Hustle

 

'Argo' triumphs again at 2013 Oscars

As soon as Argo won the Oscar for Film Editing, it seemed inevitable that the 1970s CIA thriller would also win Best Picture. Forget about the fact that Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director.  He had already won the DGA award that heralds a Best Picture award, and if there's any other Oscar night award that predicts Best Picture, it's the one for editing.

In a year with so many good films, it was nice to see that most of the nominees went home with Oscars. The biggest winner of the night was Life of Pi with four wins, but Argo and Les Miserables followed with three, and Lincoln and Django Unchained each grabbed two awards. Silver Linings
Playbook scored with one major award, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress. Zero Dark Thirty was the only real loser of the bunch, with just one (a tie, even!) for Sound Editing. That movie deserved more--it was better than The Hurt Locker, which scooped up six Oscars, compared to ZDT's solo win. But in such a strong field of players, the awards were divided evenly, instead of the "sweeps" by one film that have dominated the Oscars in recent years.

There were a few surprises in the wins. Although I loved Christoph Waltz's performance in Django Unchained, the role was quite similar to the one that previously won him an Oscar, in Inglourious Basterds. I also think that his role was central enough that it barely skated into the "supporting" category.

In the Animated Feature category, it was Disney Pixar vs. Disney, and a bit surprising that Pixar's Brave won over Wreck-It Ralph, which had been favored to win. This was a weak year for the animated category. In years past, the top two animated films were better than all the nominees this year.

Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both won "Best Actress" awards at the Golden Globes, but only one could win at the Oscars. Although I favored Chastain, both for the quality of the role she played, and the fact that she has a bit of seniority over Lawrence, Lawrence could not have been a
more---well, not graceful, but grateful winner. Her speeches, both in front of the mike and backstage, felt so natural and effusive and funny that it was hard not to root for the star. In contrast, Anne Hathaway's "It came true" speech fell flat among many Twitter couch pundits. She was in the difficult position of being heavily favored for the win and her speech came off sounding rehearsed and fake--all the more inexcusable because she was accepting the award for Best Supporting Actress. I think her team was looking for an "Oscar moment" that just didn't quite register.

Argo was a strong, crowd-pleasing choice for Best Picture, but I wonder if some of the other eight nominees may age better than that film. Argo's victorious look at U.S. history was certainly more palatable than Zero Dark Thirty's version, but it has its own flaws. How Argo got away with its inaccuracies and dramatizations while ZDT was slammed for them remains a mystery. If anything, it shows that Argo benefited from historical distance while ZDT hurt from covering a topic that still pushes many political and moral buttons.

Now that the onslaught of awards season has come to a close, movie lovers will face the long drought before the next crop of awards contenders is ready. But in the meantime, there's plenty of spring and summer tentpoles (and some hopeful indies) that go very well with a side of popcorn.

Projections for Sunday's Oscar ceremony

After months of speculation, the Oscars will finally be awarded on Sunday. So before you print out your Oscar ballot and mark your choices, take a look at Screener's picks and talking points for the leading categories..

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway for Les
Misérables. There is zero chance of an upset here.

Best Actress
My vote is for Jessica Chastain. This is the best chance for Zero Dark Thirty to get recognition.
Kathryn Bigelow didn't get a directing nomination, and Mark Boal will face competition from Django Unchained and Amour in the Original Screenplay category. That being said, those that favor Silver Linings Playbook may want to reward star Jennifer Lawrence in this prominent category. If voters split on that category, Emmanuelle Riva may win for Amour. The movie on aging was a favorite with the older demographic that belongs to the Academy. Riva is already the oldest nominee in the category, ever, and if she won she would be the oldest winner. If there's one thing the Academy loves, it's firsts.

Best Picture (and Best Director)
What will win: I'm betting on Argo. Ben Affleck won the Directors Guild Award, which traditionally predicts the Oscar winner for Best Picture and Best Director. The catch is that Affleck didn't even receive a nomination for Best Director at the Oscars, and Best Director and Best Picture almost always go together. My predicted split: Argo for Best Picture and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. Argo is also the lead in the Adapted Screenplay category, though, again, it's a tough race, and both Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook have people batting in their corner.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. Chastain was pretty much a lone wolf in Zero Dark Thirty, but Day-Lewis had lots of help from Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones, who were also nominated for their performances. But that doesn't change the fact that Day-Lewis' performance is critical to the success of Lincoln. Great actor, great part = Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor
Some are leaning towards Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master in this category. Although I can't vouch for that performance (one of the few I missed), it has gravitas, which is something the Academy tends to like. Robert De Niro's performance as a bookie father (who cries!) in Silver Linings Playbook is also a frontrunner. Personally, I think Tommy Lee Jones' chuckle-inducing performance as Thaddeus Stevens has been woefully unheralded among the press. He provided some much-needed comic relief in a sometimes dour historical account. Seeing this social liberal compromise in order to pass the amendment was an emotional and intellectual highlight of Lincoln, and Jones is my underdog favorite.

With tight races among great films, this should make for one of the most exciting ceremonies in recent memory. There will also likely be more viewers watching. This year, seven out of the nine nominees for Best Picture have earned over $100 million, which has helped build interest compared to years dominated by micro-indies. And did we mention that Seth MacFarlane is hosting?

 

Another Academy Awards predictor joins the fray, 'Social Oscars'

The second site to try to "Nate Silver"
the Oscars is Social
Oscars. Back in mid-January, Screener reported on Farsite Forecast, which doles out each
nominee's percentage chance at winning the Oscars. Social Oscars, which social
media monitoring company Brandwatch created, takes a different route. The
company's interactive infographic compares which movies the critics think will
win to the ones that the public thinks will win. Surprisingly, the critics and
public are pretty much in agreement for most of the categories. There's rarely
more than a couple percentage points in

differences between the two, which may
not be even statistically significant since they don't mention the sample size.
However, some of their findings do back up the anecdotal feelings about races
in various categories.

In the Best Picture race, for example, more
critics (12%) are excited about Zero Dark Thirty than members of the
public (7%). Life of Pi's sentimentality played better with the public
(12%) than critics (9%). Argo has recently become the frontrunner for
Best Picture, unseating the early momentum of Zero Dark Thirty and the
solid, blue-chip choice of Steven Spielberg's Lincoln. If Argo
wins, the Social Oscars will have correctly picked the winner, since 23% of the
public and 19% of critics have voted this as their favorite.

The Social Oscars is a fun tool, but it overlooks
one big fact. Who wins the Oscars usually has only a loose correlation with the
popular and critical choices. For every winner like The King's Speech,
which was the 2010 victor and supported by both critics and audiences,
there's a movie that critics were rooting for but the public did not see in
theatres in big numbers (that describes 2011 winner The Artist or 2009
winner The Hurt Locker), or a popular favorite that's just good enough
or has some kind of special hook that convinces the Academy that it deserves
recognition (Gladiator, Titanic, Forrest Gump). The Oscars can
sometimes be an exercise in game theory (see 2001 Best Picture winner A
Beautiful Mind for a brush-up on that). Many critics distinguish between
the movies they like best and the movie that they think they will win,
sometimes developing subcategories like a movie they campaign for and want to
win, even while acknowledging another movie probably has a better shot. A
regular Joe may count nominee Django Unchained as the most enjoyable
picture of the year but feel that Argo is the better choice for a Best
Picture winner. The Social Oscars' infographic is an interesting tool to gauge
the relative popularity of the Best Picture choices, for example, but critical
and popular reaction are just one piece of the pie when it comes to the Oscars.

Jessica Chastain's 'Mama' and 'Zero Dark Thirty' could go 1-2 this weekend

Jessica Chastain just won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Now she has a standard horror genre picture coming out this weekend, though it does come courtesy of executive producer Guillermo del Toro. Still, it's unlikely that she'll be "Norbit-ed." The term refers to how Eddie Murphy, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls in 2006, may have had his changes torpedoed by his starring role in the lowbrow comedy. With a 63% positive rating on Rotten
Tomatoes (compared to Norbit's 7% positive rating), it's unlikely Mama (2,647 theatres) will be an embarrassment. The PG-13 rated picture is a "throwback and a modest delight
for people who like a good scare but prefer not to be terrorized or
grossed out," observes THR's critic Todd McCarthy. "Bloodthirsty female teens" will be a prime audience for the movie, which centers on Chastain and two young girls she takes in after a traumatic experience. An opening in the high teens would put the picture ahead of Zero Dark Thirty (also starring Chastain), though they should be neck and neck. If Zero Dark Thirty loses a third of its audience, which would be a particularly good hold, it will end up around $16 million, which should be enough for second place, if not first.

Last Stand and Broken City will both compete for adult male audiences this weekend. They're
expected to do fairly similar business, with each one ending up in the low teen millions. The Last Stand (2,913 theatres) is Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading-man role since he underwent the transition from movie star to politician, becoming a two-term governor of California. However, the action hero had much-touted cameos in the Expendables movies that many already considered his "return." Wittily self-referential, the film
particularly sends up Schwarzenegger’s age," reports FJI critic Marsha McCreadie, noting a scene where he has to don glasses to get a look at a bullet wound. The answer to the "implied question behind the film: Can
Schwarzenegger still deliver?" is yes.

A corrupt mayor (Russell Crowe) hires a P.I. (Mark Wahlberg) to find out if his wife (Catherine Zeta-Jones) is being unfaithful in Broken City (2,620 theatres). Of course, that initial hint of betrayal spirals into something much bigger in this "noir-ish" look
at New York City. The "broad, splashy pieces of easily digestible
narrative, visual and character components...provides
an easy ride into a cheesy, lazily imagined New York political
scandal," offers critic Doris Toumarkine. That might be enough to get adult males into seats this weekend, at least the ones who prefer to see power wielded cerebrally, not physically.

After spending three weeks playing in around 750 theatres, Silver Linings Playbook will open wide, into, 2,523 locations. The romantic comedy has earned $43 million to date. This weekend should add at least another $10 million to the total. All four lead actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) received Oscar nominations for their performances. With a cipher of a title and a premise that's hard to reduce to a one-line plot description, this movie has sought to gain viewers primarily through word-of-mouth, which is why it has rolled out so slowly.

On Monday, we'll see which Jessica Chastain film led the box office and how many Academy Award nominees kept their spot in the top ten.

 

 

'Zero Dark Thirty' could take down 'Gangster Squad'

Since its release three weeks ago, Zero Dark Thirty has earned $5.2 million selling out the small number of theatres showing the well-reviewed feature. This weekend, the CIA procedural thriller will explode into 2,937 theatres. The buzz for this picture could not be higher. It's been the subject of many think pieces on torture, and just last night a panel convened to talk about the movie
on the PBS News Hour--and all this before it has even played to a wide audience. Adult audiences already know this is a quality film and a must-see. Especially with boomers dominating the box office, this may be enough. But Zero Dark Thirty also has the potential to draw in patriotic and military audiences, as well as fans of action thrillers--even though suspense, not gunfights, predominate. Per-screen averages for ZDT started at $80,000, went to $60,000, and
then $40,000 per screen. That's a pretty admirable hold for a film that
released in just five theatres its first two weeks, then 60 locations
last week. If the per-screen average dropped by half, to $20,000 per screen, the
movie would end up with $58 million. No one expects that will happen, but given how strongly the movie is playing, predictions around the $25-30 million
range are more than doable.

Until recently, most expected Gangster Squad (3,103 theatres) would lead this weekend, and with an estimated debut north of $20 million, it still could. Where ZDT is subtle and nuanced,
Gangster Squad is broad and features the splatters of gunfire people may be expecting--and not get--from Zero Dark Thirty. The movie is a heightened, unrealistic look at Los Angeles in the late '40s, "based on a true story" in a very loose way. The kind of movie where every other line out of an actor's mouth is a zinger. That may turn some viewers (including myself) off, but others may like the mindless diverson, which is kind of like an exaggerated parody of L.A. Confidential, but played straight. The "campy sheen should broaden its appeal," predicts FJI critic Chris Barsanti. Director Ruben Fleischer "blasts through to the finish, trusting in
speed, a solid cast, and the smartly polished period design to make
all the implausibilities and plot loopholes whip past agreeably
enough."

Also in the mix this weekend is a comedy from the Wayans Brothers, A Haunted House (2,160
theatres).  The spoof of Paranormal Activity centers on a man who tries to exorcise a demon from his girlfriend. A $10-15 million weekend would be good news for this low-budget feature.

Quartet (2 theatres), "far more delicate than The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," offers an "endearing treatise on aging and music," according to FJI's David Noh. If even a fraction of the Marigold Hotel audience shows up, this movie will likely be a success. Plus it stars Maggie Smith, of current "Downton Abbey" fame, playing "one of those
difficult, doughty, dragon-lady dowagers" that appears to be her new acting sweet spot.

On Monday, we'll see how Zero Dark Thirty performed when let out of the specialty cage and given a nationwide release, or if Gangster Squad proved more alluring than the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

 

Related articles

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Oscar nominations reveal competing visions of America

What makes a film the "Best Picture" of the year? When it comes to the Oscars, it's not enough to be the most cinematically innovative or critical favorite. The movies also must be the kind those in the industry and out can look at and say, "Now this is why Hollywood movies matter." It's a rather inclusive test, but nevertheless one many films do not pass. This morning's Oscar nominations have a fair number of surprises and snubs, in a year that includes a number of incredibly strong films. They also offer competing visions of  America and Americans--even when the subject matter is foreigners. Go figure.

Lincoln led the nominations with twelve notices, including Best Director for Steven Spielberg and Best Picture. It's considered the favorite for Best Picture, but it's also the most "safe" movie. Lincoln is about showing an America everyone can be proud of. Lincoln is one of our finest presidents, and
attempts by the script to humanize him only show how much he accomplished in the face of adversity and weariness. Even nearly 150 years after the Civil War, the movie's message is progressive. All men are created equal--under the eyes of the law, Thaddeus Stevens finally concedes. Even today, that vision is still short of reality.

Beasts of the Southern Wild shows us inequality, but then offers us a hopeful vision in spite of adversity. If you can look through the strained father-daughter relationship, the misguided efforts of rescue workers, and some heavy drinking, you can see that Beasts also offers a vision of America to be proud of. The world outside the movie's Louisiana Bathtub may be harsh and cruel to those inside, but the residents exemplify the characteristics we Americans hold so dear. Self-reliance, independence, vibrant
culture, and strength in the face of adversity. Academy voters gave the film three important nominations: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actress for Quvenzhané Wallis, is the youngest nominee in history Along with Amour, Beasts "took" a Best Director spot away from previous winners Tom Hooper and Kathryn Bigelow, who were considered strong candidates for the nomination. Lincoln will always be a bit on a pedestal, but Beasts takes that pedestal, chops it up, and uses it to keep out hurricane winds.

Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are both about intelligence operations abroad, but they couldn't be more different. Argo champions playful ingenuity. The glitz and glamour of a Hollywood shoot just serve as a smokescreen to get trapped Americans out of Iran during the hostage crisis. There's great style, music, and a cowboy attitude prevails. The movie inspired vocal reactions among those
watching in theatres, and it's hard not to leave without a gushing pride that America was clever and renegade enough to pull this off. This is a story of unequivocal pride, in the manner of Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty is the equivalent of Beasts. It shows that terrorism begets torture. The CIA is ruthlessly efficient and technologically advanced. The battle against bin Laden is won, but this movie lets us know just how high the costs were. This wasn't just about personal sacrifice, but a sacrifice our nation made in the quest of vengeance. That's a message that hasn't sat well with everyone. After doing extremely well among critics' groups, the movie has picked up some
heat from politicians denouncing the movie.

"It’s
impossible to leave this movie untroubled by the contemporary
parallels...[to author Victor] Hugo’s progressive political and moral concerns," noted Wendy R. Weinstein in her review of Les Misérables. Sure, maybe the movie would have been a hit nevertheless, but two of the other most successful musicals in recent years (Chicago and Dreamgirls) tackled big questions about fame and the American experience. As the country lifts from recession and questions topics like the incarceration of people of color who have committed minor drug offenses, for example, it recalls Jean Valjeans's life-ending punishment for stealing a loaf of bread. Like Lincoln, Les Misérables shows us that the search for justice and equality can be a never-ending process.

Which story will triumph when the statuettes are doled out? The film that wins Best Director nearly always wins Best Picture. This year, three frontrunners aren't even nominated: Les Misérables, Argo, and especially Zero Dark Thirty. Does this mean that Lincoln will win? In a year of films that spoke to the American experience, this one is the sturdiest and most uncontroversial. But the nominees that stand beside it share ultimately triumphant views of what it means to be an American, a human in society. When victories come, they are always qualified, and always at some cost. This isn't a year of fairy tales, but it does have the strongest slate of nominees in recent memory, one where multiple films can be heralded as examples of why movies matter.

PGA's popcorn movie pick is 'Skyfall'

The Producers Guild of America announced its ten nominees for Best Picture, and it's a very inclusive list. Both of the indie darlings, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild, were among the nominees. The much-accoladed Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty (of course) made the list, and Life of Pi slipped in, probably because of its literary pedigree and great cinematography. Also in the mix is Django Unchained, the violent,
challenging film that is a little bit like this year's version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Finally, the PGA recognized Skyfall. This year there have been a couple other great popcorn movies: The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers. But in the end, it was the one that released latest in the year--and was freshest in voters' minds--that garnered a nomination. Of all the popcorn movies, this is the one that appealed most to adults, including older males, that likely represent a sizeable amount of the PGA's members.

The PGA awards are best known for being extremely accurate predictors of the Oscar Best Picture winner. This year there is a deep selection of great movies, and there's no clear frontrunner. The latest word in the blogosphere is that Lincoln has a lead, but I sincerely hope another of the ones on my top movie list, such as Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings, Argo, or Les Misérables gets recognized instead. While Zero Dark Thirty and Les Misérables are my two favorites from this year, I think Les Misérables will eventually encounter some blowback from the singing choice. Many trained musicians have commented on social networks that the vocals make them cringe--especially those from, no surprise, Russell Crowe playing Javert. However, even its detractors acknowledge it's still a must-see, but I wonder if that may affect the Academy's voters. Will the musicians in the bunch be happy to recognize a film that relies heavily on music, or will they not be able to get past how the actors sound to a trained ear? With just under two months before the Oscar ceremony, this year's race is one of the most exciting in recent years. 

 

Sarah Sluis' Top Ten Movies of 2012

2012 has been a great year for big Hollywood films. In 2009, 2010 and 2011, my top ten lists were stocked with underdogs and the kind of specialty fare that only sometimes made it big at the box office. This year, most of the "specialty" releases I selected are destined for expansion and great play in theatres, so I'm a little light on the underdogs. The list reflects only the movies I saw in theatres this year: 70, a number many critics could easily double. In no particular order, here are my top ten:

1. Zero Dark Thirty. The biggest surprise for me was that the film's protagonist, Maya, was female, "a woman clothed, like Athena, in willful strength and intellectual armor," as described by The New Yorker's David Denby. She's the kind of female protagonist you don't realize is rare until you see her up on the screen. Beyond Maya (played expertly by Jessica Chastain), director Kathryn Bigelow lays out an incredibly detailed account of the years leading up to Bin Laden's death that feels real, immediate, and important. It's a cinematic (and partly fictional) version of reading The 9/11 Comission Report.

2. Next to Maya, Gina Carano was the second most awesome female protagonist of the year in Haywire. The lean spy actioner had some of the most riveting, realistic fighting I've ever seen. Like Zero Dark Thirty, there's a lot that director Steven Soderbergh didn't bother to explain. I like a story where a filmmaker or actor has the courage or confidence not to show something, and this movie was one of them.

3. Flight showed little restraint. The final minutes added a moralizing touch that felt old-fashioned and uncomfortable. Like the car crash scene in Adaptation, Flight has one of the best action sequences ever appearing in a drama. It stays with you for the rest of the film. Another great movie about alcoholism that didn't quite make the list, Smashed, is an interesting companion piece: substitute a plane crash for a faked pregnancy and you end up with a quite similar character arc.

4. Argo was so much fun to watch. Even though I had read the magazine article that was the source material and knew the end plane sequence didn't really happen, it managed to combine real drama with comedy in a way that so few others have. I think this is why audiences finally returned to the "box-office poison" of Middle East-set features. This one had you clapping and gasping in suspense, but it also had great laughs and didn't take itself too seriously.

5. The documentary Searching for Sugar Man centered on folk musician Rodriguez, a man so befuddling and enigmatic it was hard to wrap your mind around him. But that's why I like documentaries: They can offer character portraits that would never work in fiction films, because audiences would find them too frustrating. Some key would need to be provided to the audience to unlock his or her motivations. But we never get one for Rodriguez, whose life as both a star and an aesthete becomes a koan on character and fame for the audience to meditate on. In one forest, Rodriguez's music fell on deaf ears. In another (South Africa), it became a symbol of cultural revolution.

6. Les Misérables promises to shake up the way musicals are filmed for the screen. The live recordings of the actors strip away the distance that always seems to crop up in musicals. Sure, Les Misérables is one of my favorite musicals, but that only raises expectations. Mine were met, and then some.

7. Beasts of the Southern Wild may also change the world of indie film. I'd rather have a crop of indie imitators try to tackle a project like this than sit through another Mumblecore, but given the immense resolve required of those who soldiered through the bayou-set production, I doubt there will be too many. Beasts opened up dialogue about New Orleans and Katrina and made the experience of seeing a movie feel new again. For that, it gets a spot in the top ten.

8. I'm still not quite sure what to think about Django Unchained. I admire director Quentin Tarantino for traversing into the quicksand territory that is race relations and America's history of slavery. So far, people have only taken issue with small things, like the use of the N-word. Surely more thoughtful cultural critiques are to come. What I remember most about Django is its use of guided awe. Django (Jamie Foxx) rides into town on a horse, prompting head-turning stares from every person in town. A black person on a horse? Tarantino draws attentions to anachronisms, but the emotions of hatred and revenge never feel far removed from the present.

9. I don't ever want to see The Impossible again, but its account of a family torn apart by the tsunami in Thailand was harrowing and intimate. It was essentially a two-hour ordeal of getting choked up and holding back tears. Those in search of an emotional ravaging need to look no further.

10. Everyone seems to be hating The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey but I thought it was a nice solid Hobbit meal. Suddenly, Lord of the Rings made sense to me. With fewer deaths and a lighter tone, this is the kind of fantasy adventure that would have been a great kickoff to the film series. The Harry Potter books started off light and got darker and darker, and the same holds true for The Hobbit. This one was actually still close to the Prisoners of Azkaban-level in terms of darkness, but the movie makes my list just because it's such a relief to finally get a series I never really latched onto.

 

Holiday rush begins with 'Guilt Trip,' 'Monsters, Inc.' and 'Zero Dark Thirty'

With two wide releases opening today and another three on Friday, the pre-Christmas rush is reaching its apex.

Taking advantage of the light animated offerings this season, Disney will re-release Monsters Inc.
in 3D in 2,618 theatres. Disney has had mixed results with its re-releases when it comes to theatrical box office. The Lion King 3D was a huge hit ($94 million), but Finding Nemo 3D ($40 million) Beauty and the Beast ($47 million), the combo release of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 ($30 million) had much softer responses. But when you're talking about Disney, box office is just one slice of a very big pie. Disney expects an opening in the teen millions for the re-release, which should make theatre owners happy. Any work the studio does marketing the release will also serve as advance publicity for Monsters University, the prequel to the original which comes out in June.

Seth Rogen and Barbra Streisand have nice chemistry together as son and mother in The Guilt Trip (2,431 theatres), but it ends there.  Expectations for the comedy are not high. It may only
earn around $10 million over its five-day opening, less than the re-release of Monsters Inc. The mother-son pairing, which aims to "capture the three key demographics of 30-year-old stoners, over-40 gay males and sexagenarian moms," doesn't pay off according to Time Out's David Frear. "You’d swear you were actually watching a 95-minute pitch for a mild cross-generational cringe comedy rather the film itself, " an assessment I wholeheartedly agree with.

A frontrunner in the awards race, at least by my estimation, Zero Dark Thirty will roll out in just five theatres today. A wider release is planned for January. FJI's Chris Barsanti was a fan of director Kathryn's Bigelow creation: "a hybridized spy procedural and behind-
enemy-lines war film" that "inaugurates a new genre," the "war procedural." Jessica Chastain stars as a CIA agent who spends years tracking down Osama bin Laden  as her "worldview narrows down to a millimeter-wide slit." The account is "precise to a fault, verging on clinical," and culminates in a "riveting and sharply framed sequence of near-perfection" that reveals how the elite team helicoptered to the compound and finally killed bin Laden. With a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 94%, this drama is clearly a critics' favorite.

Director Michael Haneke's meditation on aging, Amour, has many critics predicting it will win the Best Foreign Language Film award at the Oscars. But how it plays with audiences is a different story. "Haneke is always fearless in what he presents (there’s no pampering
to the crowds) and audiences who take pleasure in great work
shouldn’t be fearful," critic Doris Toumarkine encourages, before wondering "if positive
word of mouth performs its magic, or if older mouths too close to
the material do some damage."

By Friday, the Wednesday returns should be in for this batch of new releases, and This is 40, Jack Reacher, and Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away will be added to the oven.

'Lincoln,' 'Silver Linings,' and 'Les Miz' lead SAG award nods

Zero Dark Thirty may have won top honors from the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Online, and a number of critics organizations in smaller cities (Boston, Washington D.C.), but it emerged from the Screen Actors Guild Awards competition with just one nomination. Jessica Chastain was nominated for Female Actor in a Lead Role, for a part some think
has Oscar-winner written all over it. It's a bit surprising that Zero Dark Thirty didn't get a nod in the Best Ensemble department, especially since it has so many well-known (and up-and-coming) actors in supporting roles, including James Gandolfini, Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler (Super 8), Jennifer Ehle,  mumblecore vet Mark Duplass, and Chris Pratt ("Parks & Recreation"). However, they did have comparatively small, forgettable roles compared to Chastain's, and to the supporting roles in the other nominated films. Argo highlights the talent not only of Ben Affleck, but also has some meaty, comedic roles for John Goodman and Alan Arkin. Silver Linings Playbook generated buzz for three of its stars, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, and Bradley Cooper. Lincoln, Les Miserables, and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, the same deal.

Does this change the lineup for the Oscars? In short, no. Besides Zero Dark Thirty, a couple of other movies are still strongly in the running. Les Miserables is getting points for being a musical done right. Lincoln is the one appealing to the older, staid voters in the Academy, while Silver Linings Playbook has energized many critics and has a more youthful feel. Then there's Argo, which had some great early momentum but is losing out to movies that are just ramping up their buzz as they move into release. Marigold Hotel got a vote for Best Ensemble in part because of SAG's older and U.K. voters, and it does have a deeper cast than Zero Dark Thirty. However, that movie only has an outside chance of being recognized at the biggest awards ceremony, and most likely will receive a few nominations, max. The winners of the SAG Awards won't be announced until January 27, one month before the Oscars.

'Zero Dark Thirty' is ambiguous about torture. It would have been a bad movie if it wasn't.

Just as Zero Dark Thirty is accruing awards, controversy is also accelerating over the movie's depiction of torture. New York Magazine's David Edelstein has voiced unease over the torture scenes, saying in his review "As a moral statement, Zero Dark Thirty is borderline fascistic. As a piece of cinema, it’s phenomenally gripping—an unholy masterwork." I'm with Edelstein on the "masterwork" part, but I disagree completely about the "fascistic" part. Zero Dark Thirty is carefully neutral about torture. I went into the screening against torture, and I came out against it. I think it's also possible to
go into the movie approving of torture, and come out also approving of torture. It's the movie's lack of evangelism for the anti-torture standpoint that has people getting nervous. When really, that's what makes director Kathryn Bigelow' and screenwriter Mark Boal's follow-up to The Hurt Locker so great.

Compare Zero Dark Thirty to the upcoming release of Promised Land, a love letter to liberal concerns over drilling for natural gas. The filmmakers are clearly against drilling, and though they try to present other opinions, those positions are only really used as more evidence to support their stance. It's baby food for liberals: bland, unchallenging, guaranteed to be safe going down. Imagine if Zero Dark Thirty had taken this approach, using the movie not to document the hunt for Bin Laden but as an indictment of torture. The entire feel of the movie would be different, and the audience would be guided into being a critic, not an observer.

I found plenty in Zero Dark Thirty to support my anti-torture position. The sequences themselves are brutal, both for the victims and those that are reduced to their basest levels by inflicting violence onto another person. The "big lead" does not come from torture but from its aftermath. CIA agent Maya (Jessica Chastain) and her colleague (Jason Clarke) trick someone into thinking he has already confessed information under duress. He confirms what they say while gorging himself on hummus. Sure, some may think that the kindness method would only work after cruelty, but I'm not one of them.

Besides torture, there are other things that are startling about the raid on Bin Laden. How they call someone's name and shoot him when he turns to respond. The way one of the wives is killed. The fact that I didn't like the way many of the characters acted makes Zero Dark Thirty feel less like a movie and more like the "docudrama" some are calling journalist-turned-screenwriter Mark Boal's take. These are unpleasant truths. America tortured. In a raid, there is no time for those movie-style hesitations, where a character looks the other in the eye for long moment before pulling the trigger, perhaps accompanied by a speech. The things that make us feel better about right and wrong, the good guys and the bad guys. Zero Dark Thirty shows us another reality, and challenges us in our reaction. Do the ends justify the means? People are coming away with the movie with different answers to that question, a sign that Bigelow and Boal have done their job.

NYFCC gives 'Zero Dark Thirty' its top honors

The New York Film Critics Circle gave three cheers for Zero Dark Thirty, awarding the film a trio of honors: Best Feature, Best Director, and Best Cinematography. Director Kathryn Bigelow's follow-up to her Oscar winner The Hurt Locker is even better than that movie, in my opinion. Zero Dark Thirty is broader in scope and more harrowing. Plus, it centers on the (successful!) hunt for Osama Bin Laden. The movie was already in pre-production when Bin Laden was killed, forcing writer Mark Boal to rewrite the script last-minute. I think the fact that the movie was originally
concieved as a story of failure makes the resulting film less hagiographic. It's just the straightforward tale of a CIA agent (Jessica Chastain) with a hunch that wherever Bin Laden's trusted courier is, Bin Laden must be there too.

This isn't the first time Bigelow has been honored by the New York Film Critics Circle. They previously gave her the Best Director honor for The Hurt Locker back in 2009. That movie, about bomb defusers in Iraq, also won Best Picture. Could this mean that Zero Dark Thirty could take top prize come Oscar time?

I still haven't seen another frontrunner, Les Miserables, but Zero Dark Thirty certainly has what it takes to win the Oscars. Gravitas tends to triumph when it comes to the staid Oscar stauettes, so that would raise the movie above another one set in the Middle East, Argo, which was more comic. However, Bigelow won just a few years ago, and under circumstances that can't be repeated. She was the first female recipient for Best Director, and the movie won Best Picture over the behemoth Avatar (which was directed by her ex, an intriguing piece of Hollywood history). However, Tom Hooper, who directed Les Miserables, won Best Director and Best Feature even more recently, for 2010's The King's Speech. There are so many potential stories of success, and deciding factors, like audience response, still in play. How will Zero Dark Thirty do at the box office, for example? Will the procedural story of a female CIA agent catch on with audiences who may have been expecting a male hero? For the moment, I'm with the NYFCC, and my money's on Bigelow.