'2012' to blow up at the box office

By Sarah Sluis

Today, 2012 will bring disaster to 3,404 theatres nationwide. Filled with unbelievable near-death escapes, and a survival mechanism called the "atomic-age equivalent of Noah's ark," the movie's strong suit is that it doesn't take itself too seriously. With this framework, the implausibilities go down much easier. While crowds will turn out for the special effects, the disaster theme is getting old. Add in the recession, and the movie could play either way: "My world is already collapsing, so why bother to see civilization collapse?" or "Well, I should see it. It will remind me things could be worse." The doom-and-gloom spectacle is expected to open at $40 million.

A movie rescued and repackaged from its unsuccessful British release, Pirate Radio, will open in 882 theatres. Previously titled The Boat That Rocked, it bowed to a disappointing run in Britain at a considerably bloated running time. It was given to Focus Features, edited, and re-marketed, so its performance will be a reflection of the success of Focus' efforts.

Joining Where the Wild Things Are as a kiddie movie with a hipster, adult feel, Fantastic Mr. Fox opens in four theatres (NY/LA) before expanding in coming weeks. The stop-motion animated film employs a style less like Coraline and more like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer: deliberately stilted. Our critic Ethan Alter called it "not necessarily...a great children's movie, but...a pretty fantastic Wes Anderson film." Having seen it myself, I can say it's fun to see Wes Anderson's signature style--his straight-on framing and penchant for stylized dialogue, to name two--melded with writer Roald Dahl's material and presented in stop-motion animation. By drawing in (perhaps confused) children, families, and adult Wes Anderson fans, the movie stands to make a buck without having to rob the three biggest chicken producers in town.

Opening in four theatres in New York and Washington D.C., The Messenger has already drawn warm reviews from critics, a promising sign given critic Justin Lowe's warning that the "delicate subject matter could be a tough sell in a marketplace still averse to accounts of the conflict; careful handling is required." By "gingerly [probing] wounds that are still healing with admirable empathy and insight," this war-themed film appeals both to soldiers and military families as well as those isolated from the impact of the U.S.'s wars.

Also opening today is William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe (New York/Boston), a documentary about the civil rights lawyer who alienated almost everyone--including his two young daughters--when he started defending those guilty in the eyes of the American public, including an accused terrorist.

The kind of movie I would have enjoyed in high school, Dare, debuts today in New York and L.A. Though critic James Greenberg predicted most people won't see the movie until it hits cable, the high school-set movie is "a smart and well-observed entry in the genre [and] a cut above the usual hijinks."

On Monday, we'll see what kind of damage 2012 did on the box office, if Pirate Radio's re-marketing paid off, and if last week's big winner, Precious: Based on the Story 'Push' by Sapphire, can sustain its performance as it expands to 174 theatres.

Tis the (early) season for 'A Christmas Carol'

By Sarah Sluis

Despite opening nearly two months before the holiday, A Christmas Carol will roll out in 3,683 theatres, including 2,050 3D screens, 141 of which are IMAX. The movie is expected to earn in the $25-$35 million range. As the holiday season approaches, it should pick up even more business, though it will lose 3D screens once Avatar releases on December 18th. Our critic and executive editor Kevin Lally called the movie "Dickens for the ADD

generation," noting "[director Robert] Zemeckis' penchant

for rollercoaster-like 3D action" seems tailored for a "videogame-nurtured audience." To each generation, their own. (I count myself among the Mickey's Christmas Carol generation)

Two horror-thriller-sci-fi movies will battle at the box office this weekend: The Box (2,635 theatres) and The Fourth Kind (2,529 theatres). Neither has accumulated much acclaim. In an effort to punch up The Box, which was originally a short story about a simple choice ("If you open this box, you will receive $1 million and someone will die"), director Richard Kelly created a convoluted plot that "winds its way through suspense, psychological thriller, science fiction, conspiracy theory and horror genres with an overlay of Christian religious motifs and a dab of existentialism." Wow. The Fourth Kind follows Paranormal Activity by purporting to show real events--case studies of people who were abducted by aliens. The trailer is pretty frightening, but critic Michael Rechtshaffen found "the gimmick proves more distracting than disturbing."

The Men Who Stare at Goats (2,443 theatres) is a light war romp about a reporter who discovers the U.S. Government sponsored a unit to try to investigate the use of psychic powers for combat. Unfortunately, the movie includes one scene where a soldier is given LSD and starts firing shots into a crowded military courtyard, only to put the gun in his mouth to kill himself. Because of yesterday's military shooting, audiences may not be able to flip back to comedy so soon after seeing such an eerily similar event. However, the older-skewing satire is expected to play well for several weeks in an open field for comedies, so this should not be the death knell for the movie, especially given George Clooney's spot-on performance.

Budding awards favorite, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, is opening in 18 theatres. While most specialty films will open in a mix of multiplexes and arthouses, Precious is debuting in multiplexes and theatres in primarily African- American neighborhoods. In New York, it's playing in Harlem. In Los Angeles, it's playing in Crenshaw. The movie has already drawn a wave of controversy, with many critical of reviews and cries of racism being thrown around. Not only is the movie powerful and violent, but it opens up a dialogue about race that incites incredible emotion. With its disenfranchised child in the lead and the resulting social critique (including that of exploitation), this movie is the Slumdog Millionaire of '09. Just don't presume it ends up with Precious winning a million dollars.