Specialty releases pack sold-out theatres; 'Day the Earth Stood Still' earns $31 million

By Sarah Sluis

The $31 million earned by The Day the Earth Stood Still seems just about right for me.  The so-so
reviews drew disaster, alien, and special-effects fans (especially to see the film on IMAX) but didn't fool anyone into thinking they would be seeing something on par with Keanu Reeves' performance in The Matrix--this was more like a Constantine.

Four Christmases continued to do strong business (I need to see this film!), with the solid comedic team of Reese Witherspoon and Vince Vaughn ensuring a pleasant repose after a long day of holiday shopping.  The storyline about endless, annoying relatives seems apt after the difficult task of finding the perfect gift for everyone on your list.

Much to my relief, no one showed up for Delgo.  Earning $424 per screen, that means roughly 40 people came to see the animated disaster (not to one showing...over the whole weekend).  I can believe that 40 people in a given area would have no better way to spend 88 minutes than at that movie, so I feel satisfied about its sub-$1 million performance.

Four awards-bait films opened this weekend, and all earned above $10k per screen, a great performance out of the gate (compare this with the winner of the week, The Day the Earth Stood Still, which posted only $8,708 per screen).

     Top Six Per-Screen Averages

1. Gran Torino: $47,333/per screen, 6 locations



2. Doubt: $35,000/per screen , 15 locations



3. Che: $30,050/per screen, 2 locations



4. The Reader: $30,050/per screen, 8 locations



5. Frost/Nixon: $16,154/per screen, 39 locations (2nd week)



6. Slumdog Millionaire: $13,154/per screen, 169 locations (5th week)

Not on this list is Milk.  Shut out of a Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama, which drained the movie of some of its buzz, the Gus Van Sant film earned $8,037 per screen, finishing just below the per-screen average of The Day the Earth Stood Still.

Riding its wave of Golden Globe nominations, Slumdog Millionaire boosted its per-screen average even as it increased the number of screens in its release, settling the film in that elusive sweet spot of awards material with commercial recognition.  Releasing so much earlier than other rewards fodder has paid off so far for the film.  I saw it over six weeks ago, and its unusual story and superb execution still bring a warm glow of appreciation to my mind.  Without any backlash ("sappy" will be the mud of choice), and growing box-office receipts to support its buzz, this film is my awards favorite so far.

Still, all of the award-baiting films in the top five have yet to expand their release, so the relative success of one film over another will play a part in the allotment of Oscar nominations, which won't be announced until January 22nd.  Also, Golden Globe nominees Revolutionary Road and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button have not yet been released, still making this a wide-open race.

Full studio estimates available here.

'Four Christmases' spends second week at the top

By Sarah Sluis

With the weekend's two new releases, Cadillac Records and Punisher: War Zone, failing to make an impact with their $3.5 and $4 million grosses, the post-Thanksgiving weekend saw a 50% drop in the box
office as a whole. 

Four Christmases remained at number one, earning $18.1 million and dropping a below-average 41%.  Twilight gave me a pleasant surprise by rising to number two, leveling out after last week's heavy drop and earning $13.1 million.  Director Catherine Hardwicke, who now holds the title of "highest opening weekend ever for a female director," will not return to direct the second project due to "timing" issues.  Unfortunate, given that this opening offers a woman a foothold into the male-dominated profession of film director, but, gender issues aside, the quality of the franchise could definitely be improved, and a change in leadership will be the most effective way to bolster the feeling and execution of the vampire romance.

Frost/Nixon opened on three screens, earning $60,000 per-screen.  The astounding number puts Milk's $50k and Slumdog's $30k per-screen to shame.  The excellent per-screen performance of the movie begs the question--why release on only three screens to begin with?  Given the volume of media and press for Frost/Nixon, the fact-based drama certainly could have opened on more screens while still selling out theatres.  Impressive openings help a film once it gets to the DVD market, but I wonder if Frost/Nixon might have rolled out the bulk of its "buzz" too soon.  Perhaps alluding to the $60k per-screen of Frost/Nixon, THR's Risky Business blog weighed in on the per-screen average metric, a "key indicator of a film's reception among early adopters [and] core audiences."  According to the theory they're using, specialty releases that roll out and expand while dropping less than 50% from a per-screen perspective can safely be called successes.  Slumdog Millionaire and Milk fall into that category (so far), will they be joined by Frost/Nixon?

Complete studio estimates available here.

A Weekend of Leftovers...and 'Punisher: War Zone'

By Sarah Sluis

Deferring to the blitz of movies released over Thanksgiving weekend, only one film opens to wide release
this week, Punisher: War Zone (2,508 screens).  The comic book sequel should break the top five, better than last week's action sequel Transporter 3, but the movie's lackluster reviews certainly won't electrify audiences or even fanboys. 

With Four Christmases, Australia, Bolt, and Twilight returning for their second and third week, more eyes will focus on the performance of these holdovers.  Australia opened to a lackluster $20 million, and its success or failure will be determined this weekend, when analysts measure just how much it drops from last week.  Bolt, which rebounded from its Twilight-induced third place opening by posting the same numbers over Thanksgiving (unlike Twilight, which dropped nearly 70%), should finally drop a little this weekend, but the real sign of its longevity won't come until schools let out for winter break--will parents bring their children to Bolt or choose something else?   Last week's number one release, Four Christmases, should hold its appeal through this weekend, especially now that audiences have heard piped Christmas music for a week in virtually every public place.

Last week four specialty releases cleared a million dollars (Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, Changeling). While the latter two films are winding down,  Milk and Slumdog Millionaire both expand their releases this week. Milk will move onto 99 screens and Slumdog Millionaire onto 78, including new markets Atlanta, Detroit, and Indianapolis.  Both films are sure to rack up Oscar nominations, so they're worth seeing.

Beyond wide releases, Cadillac Records (686 screens) and Nobel Son
(893 screens) both open moderately this week.  Starring Adrien Brody and Beyonce Knowles, the glamorous and flashy musical was dubbed "rollicking and insightful" by the New York Times but "overstuffed" by our reviewer, David Noh.

A stylistically flashy film, Nobel Son
seems to have inspired a "love it or hate it" response, and is currently tracking at 21% on RottenTomatoes.  Our critic David Noh called it "over the top but in a good way," and predicts the film will have a cult following.  Lastly, Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon opens on 3 screens, and the positively reviewed film will now have a chance to gain or lose momentum based on audience response.

'Four Christmases' cheers up box office

By Sarah Sluis

Hollywood had a lot to be thankful for this weekend.  Grossing 4% more than last year's Thanksgiving

weekend, the box office showed no signs of recession.  Holiday picture Four Christmases came in at number one with a $31.6 million gross, but with the top seven films each earning at least $10 million, there was plenty of holiday cheer to spread around.  Bolt actually increased its take 1% from last week, earning $26.5 million for the weekend and proving that families sidetracked by Twilight would come back to see a reliably entertaining Disney picture.

Twilight finished at number three with $26.3 million, dropping 62%.  The spike downward does not necessarily spell a swift demise for the picture.  With winter break coming up, teen fans who saw the film in the opening weekend will have the chance to come back for repeat viewings and spread the word among their less devoted friends.

Australia finished on the low side, earning $14.8 million for the three-day weekend and $20 million for the five-day total.  Despite tracking highly among women over 25, the picture did not skew strongly towards that demographic, attracting equal amounts of men and women, and only a slight (65%) skew in audiences over 25 (i.e. people went with their families).  If this film is truly drawing a Nights of Rodanthe-type crowd, who didn't have the time to see the movie because of their turkey-basting duties, Australia will stick around through the holiday season and cross at least $50 million.  Working against the film, however, is that this film already received a huge push from Oprah a few weeks back, giving it plenty of time to work up anticipation among a crowd that relies heavily on word-of-mouth to make their moviegoing decisions.  Next weekend, which will have an open schedule with plenty of room to pick up audience members, will determine the box-office playability of Baz Luhrman's romantic epic.

Among specialty releases, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire both wowed audiences and the box office.  Milk earned an astounding $38,375 per theatre ($52,627 for the five-day holiday) in its debut, and third-weeker Slumdog's $27,890 per theatre prompted Fox Searchlight to announce that the film will expand to 600 theatres by December 19th.  Both of these films have received a healthy amount of Oscar buzz, and their robust ticket sales validate their potential as Academy Award contenders.

Full box office results available here.

Thanksgiving entertainment: Pass the 'Milk,' and prepare for 'Four Christmases'

By Sarah Sluis

This Thanksgiving weekend is stuffed with choices--three new wide releases, last week's Twilight and Bolt, and second-week holdover Quantum of Solace should all post eight-digit returns this weekend. 
Which film will end up as the main course?  Currently, Four Christmases is tracking to be the number one release
this weekend.  With 3,310
screens, the comedy will boast the widest release, an omnipresence conducive to number-one openings.  However, Australia, while only releasing on 2,642 screens,
could do better than the mid-range, $20 million figure expected.  Based on an Oprah show I saw promoting Australia, filled with an unusually (even for Oprah) impassioned audience, I wouldn't be surprised if matriarchs push the family to see Australia over, say, Four Christmases.  The "pull" factor--the ability of one person to influence a movie choice--was a key reason Twilight overwhelmed Bolt last weekend, and Australia has more of a "must-see," epic feel to it than a by-the-book comedy, even if it does star Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon.

Lionsgate's Transporter 3 opens on 2,626 screens, and with the kids out of school, the PG-13 actioner should pass at least $10 million.  Last week's #1 and #3 releases, Twilight and Bolt, will also be films to watch, both for their movement within the top ten, and, well, for their entertainment value.  Disney expects Bolt to make just as much money this week as last week.  Certainly, filmgoers who had Twilight and Bolt on their to-see list (i.e., those Utah families supporting Twilight) will probably turn out for Bolt in its second weekend, but I am also curious to see how well Twilight will be able to maintain its audience.

Biopic Milk releases on 35 screens, expanding on the traditional NY/LA/Toronto release to include San Francisco, where Harvey Milk held office, as well as liberal, gay-friendly cities, including Miami,

Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Boston, Portland, and Seattle.  No showings in (liberal) Austin, Dallas, or Salt Lake City.  Despite the film's obvious appeal to those interested in the civil rights movement, and specifically gay rights, our critic Doris Toumarkine predicted Milk " should attract demanding filmgoers of all persuasions."  With the passage of California's Proposition 8 in the forefront, the film reads as particularly topical.  My question is: Will the targeted release of Milk be able to match the whopping $30k+ per screen of the Slumdog Millionaire release the past two weeks?