Could 'The Help' be this summer's second female-driven hit?

By Sarah Sluis

This summer began with an R-rated un-rom com, Bridesmaids, which opened softly but has since earned over six times its opening weekend. The highly anticipated adaptation of the novel The Help releases today, which I predict will soon have membership to the $100 million club. According to a Variety article published today, the studio held over 300 advance screenings of the movie that targeted black and faith-based audiences, as well as some library crowds. I took a look at some of The Help's comparable films to try to figure out the movie's prospects, which are currently looking quite bright.

Eat Pray Love (2010)
Opening weekend: $23 million. Domestic Total: $80 million.
Unlike The Help, Eat Pray Love was hampered by poor reviews. Just 46% of audiences liked the movie, according to Rotten Tomatoes, compared to 89% of audiences who have previewed The Help. Like The Help, Eat Pray Love was based on a bestseller popular in book clubs, but interest stopped at older white women. Many people dismissed the movie as covering "white girl problems," and the midlife crisis impetus for the woman's journeys alienated younger viewers. Prediction: The Help will blow this release out of the water.

Julie & Julia (2009)
Opening weekend: $20 million. Domestic Total: $94 million.
Another movie based on a popular book, Julie & Julia had much better reviews. It opened lower than Eat Pray Love, but audiences kept coming, giving the movie a higher finish. The casting of Meryl Streep, who was nominated for an Oscar, was also a boon. Prediction: The Help will do at least as well, in part because it also appeals to faith-based and black audiences.

Bridesmaids (2011)
Opening weekend: $26 million. Domestic Total (so far): $166 million.
Plenty of people who loved reading The Help would not be caught dead watching this R-rated comedy. However, it's worth noting that even with a lot of marketing and media exposure, this comedy only opened to $26 million. If The Help opens low, its performance the second and third weeks will spell whether the drama is a success or not. Prediction: Tough competition, but I think The Help has a chance of matching Bridesmaids.

The Blind Side (2009)
Opening weekend: $34 million Domestic Total: $255 million.
Comparison between The Blind Side and The Help may be the most valuable. They both share similar plotlines, about white people helping black people. Faith-based audiences responded particularly well to the Sandra Bullock drama, which is a bit more Christian than The Help, in my opinion. However, I don't know how popular The Blind Side was with black audiences. A movie like The Help will have much more resonance with black audiences than Blind Side, whose black character was mostly mute and unexplored as a person. In contrast, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer have been giving tons of interviews and many people will come to the movie to see them. The sports theme of The Blind Side was an automatic draw for male audiences, who may be less enthusiastic about The Help. Prediction: Unless The Help ends up in the Best Picture category like The Blind Side, I think The Help will come in underThe Blind Side's total.

A final thought. If Disney/DreamWorks has been successful in marketing The Help to black audiences, the movie's opening weekend could be much bigger than most female-driven adaptations of "book club" novels. Tyler Perry's Madea movies routinely earn half their total haul the first weekend, when middle-aged black women turn out in force to see these movies.

First-day estimates of The Help should post tomorrow. Currently, 31% of advance ticket sales on Fandango are for the movie.

'On Stranger Tides' sails to first

By Sarah Sluis

One sign of an incredibly successful franchise may be when the $90 million debut of its latest installment�the highest recorded so far in 2011�is considered unexceptional. That's the fate of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. The first movie opened to $46 million, the second to $135 million, and the third to $115 million, and the fourth movie's $90 million haul is a sign that Captain Jack Sparrow no longer holds quite the same allure for American audiences. The same cannot be said across the high seas, where the movie has performed exceptionally well. With $256 million already in the bank overseas, Pirates is the kind of broad action movie that draws foreign moviegoers to the box office.

In second place, Bridesmaids held exceptionally well, dipping just 19% to $21 million. Even last year's megahit comedy The Hangover fell 27% in its opening weekend. If the female-driven comedy continues to hold its audience, it will perform on par with a movie that opened to $40 million, or even higher�this from a comedy that debuted with $26 million. In a marketplace so driven by first-week gross, Bridesmaids could easily end up topping $100 million, but it will take time and continued positive word-of-mouth.

Elsewhere in the top ten, horror mash-up Priest plummeted 70% to $4.6 million. Most of the other titles in the top ten, including Thor, Fast Five, and Jumping the Broom, averaged drops around 50%, making Bridesmaids' performance even more impressive.

Woody Allen should be celebrating, since Midnight in Paris averaged an incredible $96,500 in each of its six theatres, enough to launch the City of Light-set film to twelfth place. Since Allen can be a spotty filmmaker, fans responded to critics' positive reviews, coming out of the woodwork to catch one of his better films.

This Friday, The Hangover Part II will hit theatres. The comedy sequel has high levels of anticipation and awareness, so it will likely see blockbuster results. For a younger crowd, animated Kung Fu Panda 2 will take advantage of the three-day weekend, and Palme d'Or-winning The Tree of Life will grab arthouse audiences.

'Inception' gears up for a dream weekend

By Sarah Sluis

One of the most anticipated movies of the summer, Inception, rolls into 3,792 theatres today. Many in the industry are pegging the movie's opening at $50-60 million, though I think Inception's long-term box

office potential is much higher. It's one of the few wholly original movies coming out this summer, but also has a level of built-in appeal due to the popularity of its director, The Dark Knight's Christopher Nolan. If it plays its cards right, I think it could be one of those pictures that brings in people who only go to the theatre for "big" movies. Reviews have been largely positive, with Film Journal's critic Maitland McDonagh declaring Inception "a superior summer movie, one with heart and brains and loads of razzle-dazzle." Some have faulted the movie for being overly complex in terms of plot, but not enough in terms of emotions. Dana Stevens at Slate summed it up by saying, "At the end of Inception, I hadn't lived through the grueling emotional journey Nolan seemed to think I had, but I'd seen a bunch of cool images and admired some technically ambitious feats of filmmaking." For a summer movie, that's pretty much all you can ask for.

After opening on Wednesday to $3.8 million, The Sorcerer's Apprentice (3,504 theatres) is expected to end up in the $30 million range for the weekend. Our critic Ethan Alter suspected that producer Jerry

Bruckheimer was trying to give Nicolas Cage a Jack Sparrow-worthy role as an "extended apology to [his] frequent collaborator." Cage isn't in the best financial situation, and a career reboot a la Depp would be welcome. Too bad Cage's performance wasn't up to snuff. "Handed the golden opportunity to create his own Jack Sparrow, Cage whiffs and gives us one of the least memorable personalities in his gallery of eccentrics," Alter laments.

An under-the-radar release (though perhaps not among preteen girls), Standing Ovation will open in 623 theatres, most of them outside of the biggest cities. Just one theatre will carry the

movie in New York City, for example, compared to over eight in Houston. The singing & dance sequences in the trailer are impressive, especially given the ages of the performers. What kid will care about the clunky dialogue when there's an advertised "20 original songs and 14 original dance numbers"?

Returning release Despicable Me has been playing strongly through the week, thanks to the summer holidays, and should continue to do well at the box office. Platform releases Cyrus and The Kids Are All Right should continue to increase their revenue, with Cyrus likely to keep its spot in the top ten, while The Kids Are All Right will be unlikely to do so until it expands further.

On Monday, we'll circle back to analyze the first weekend of Inception, gauging the word-of-mouth on the action/sci-fi hybrid. And we won't forget about The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which is a strong pick for the second-place spot.

'The Twilight Saga: Eclipse' shines brightly and briefly

By Sarah Sluis

This week's wide releases, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse and The Last Airbender, were full of the box-office vagaries that result from pre-weekend opening and four-day holiday weekends.

The Twilight Saga: Eclipse burned through its audience quickly. Attracted by the fun of going to midnight and opening day screenings, audiences turned out to the tune of $68 million on Wednesday. The number quickly fell to $24 million the next day. On Friday, the movie's take rose to $28 million, before dipping down again to $23 million on Saturday. It dropped 40% on Sunday, the Fourth of July, to $16 million, and fell another 18% on Monday to $13.5 million. All told, the vampire romance has grossed $175 million in six days. The Twilight Saga: New Moon actually earned a similar amount, $178 million, in the first six days of its release (Friday through Wednesday). The movie's precipitous fall through the long weekend shows the intense anticipation among its fanbase, but also the tentpole's limited appeal. Whether Eclipse will exceed New Moon's $296 million cumulative gross remains to be seen.

The Last Airbender had dismal reviews and minimal audience turnout for midnight screenings on the eve of

its Thursday release, but it played consistently throughout the weekend to end up with $70 million over five days, an impressive total for a movie with such negative responses. Its placement in the "family movie" category proved to be a boon. Both Airbender and Toy Story 3, both movies boasted revenues 34% higher on Monday than Sunday, which may have been "family movie time."

Another anomaly of the weekend was the 70% rise (104% over the four-day weekend) in Letters to Juliet, which has been out for eight weeks. The PG-rated flick, along with a cast that spans generations, filled a gap in family fare. After opening to just $13 million, the movie has grossed $50 million, including $830,000 over the holiday weekend.

Fox Searchlight's Cyrus broke into the top ten three weeks into its release, bringing in $1 million over the long weekend. Going from 17 to 77 theatres, revenue rose 156%, while per-screen averages remained above $10,000.

Among returning releases, Toy Story 3 played strongest, earning $42.2 million, enough to cross the movie over the $300 million mark in a Buzz Lightyear-paced three weeks. Including just Friday to Sunday grosses, however, the movie dropped 49%, consistent with most other movies in the top ten.

This Friday, another animated movie enters the mix. Illumination Entertainment will debut their first release, Despicable Me. To please the horror/sci-fi crowds, Predators will offer up some summer movie scares.

'Iron Man 2' kicks off blockbuster season

By Sarah Sluis

Iron Man 2 racked up an astounding $133 million over the weekend, a dramatic improvement over Iron Man's

$98 million debut in 2008. The superhero movie had its strongest

performance on Friday, and fell

slightly through the rest of the

weekend. Overseas, Iron Man 2 is already in its second week and going strong. Stateside, it will have to compete with the action-driven Robin Hood releasing

this Friday. Last year, X-Men Origins: Wolverine dropped 70% in its

second weekend, when Star Trek bowed. Even a 70% drop will still give Iron Man 2 a $40 million second weekend, but given its stronger reception than Wolverine, it will likely post a much higher second weekend.

Babies debuted at number ten with $1.5 million. The documentary followed four babies around the world from birth to first steps. Reviews were starkly separated between baby-haters and those that just

couldn't stop oo-ing and aa-ing

over the cute creatures. While the per-screen average could be higher

(just $2,900 per screen at 534 locations), the movie has a chance at

performing well in coming weeks if it attracts positive word-of-mouth.

Besides Babies, Mother and Child also opened this weekend to take advantage of the Sunday Mother's Day holiday. At four locations, the movie earned $11,000 per theatre, the strongest per-theatre average for a specialty film this week. Please Give, in its second week, posted $9,000 per location as it quintupled the amount of theatres in its release (5 to 26).

A Nightmare on Elm Street tumbled 72% in its second week to $9.1 million, a fall expected for the horror movie. Iron Man 2 drove competing action movies downward: Clash of the Titans fell 60%, The Losers went down 69%, and Kick-Ass dropped 66%.

Family movies and comedies emerged unscathed. How to Train Your Dragon crossed the $200 million mark with a $6.7 million weekend, a 36% drop. Date Night dropped 30% to $5.3 million and The Back-up Plan fell 40% to $4.3 million. Even Furry Vengeance dropped just 40% after a disappointing first weekend, adding $4 million to its gross for an $11 million cumulative gross.

This Friday, Gladiator duo of director Ridley Scott and star Russell Crowe re-team for Robin Hood. The Queen Latifah romantic comedy Just Wright and Italy-set romance Letters to Juliet will go up against the male-driven fare.

'New Moon' and 'Blind Side' gobble up a second helping

By Sarah Sluis

For the second week in a row, The Twilight Saga: New Moon took the top spot at the box office. Through the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, it earned $65.9 million, bringing its total gross to $230 million. The two-week total exceeds that of the entire run of the first Twilight movie, which never passed the $200 million mark. The blockbuster success of a franchise targeted almost exclusively to young teen girls should change the film landscape for years to come. Studios should be scurrying to replicate its success, especially given the comparative lack of female-driven blockbusters (Sex and the City and the slightly broader Mamma Mia! notwithstanding)

In second place, The Blind Side grabbed $40 million over the holiday weekend and even beat New Moon on Thanksgiving day because of its broader, family appeal. Many have compared the movie to Precious, but its heartwarming flavor is more reminiscent of last year's Christmas hit Marley & Me.

Old Dogs had a softer Thanksgiving open than a similar Disney comedy, Wild Hogs, opening at $24 million to Wild Hogs' $40 million. The first movie opened in a less competitive March timeslot, making the movie a bit of a scheduling victim, lost among the more appealing side dishes. The other male-oriented film, Ninja Assassin, opened two spots lower at $13.1 million.

As the holiday season kicks into high gear, A Christmas Carol was there to reap the seasonal cheer. The performance-capture tale went up 30% from last week, and 80% including the five-day weekend.

On the horizon, The Princess and the Frog had a promising debut in limited release, bringing in $1.1 million from just two screens thanks to high ticket prices because of a tie-in to character meet-and-greets and behind-the-scenes looks at the movie. When it opens wide on December 11th, girls who have grown up on the Disney "Princesses" merchandising line will have a chance to add another heroine to their princess collection.

Fantastic Mr. Fox, a rather different sort of children's movie, brought in $9.4 million over the five-day weekend. A quarter of the audience was under 19, suggesting the movie has greater appeal among adults and Wes Anderson fans.

The bleak The Road opened in the last spot in the top ten, earning $2 million from 111 theatres. Delayed for over a year, the movie has finally seen the light...but not much green. Unlike the last Cormac McCarthy book to be made into a movie, No Country For Old Men, this one will do considerably lighter business.

The next few weeks between Thanksgiving and New Year's will see a whole slate of quality, Academy-worthy films released and crowd-pleasing blockbusters (I can vouch for Up in the Air, but I'm still waiting to see Avatar like everyone else). Time to ring in the holiday season with some popcorn and egg nog.

'2012' destroys the box-office competition

By Sarah Sluis

Disasters, it seems, are always in style. 2012 earned an astonishing $65 million over the weekend, exceeding expectations. All the CG carnage came at a steep price, $200 million in production costs, but the first-week international gross of $225 million, plus a cable deal with FX, has already steered the movie toward the black.

Coming in second place, A Christmas Carol dropped a merry 25% to $22.3 million. It also has $200 million in production costs to make back, so the movie is counting on steady audiences through the Christmas season to recoup its investment. IMAX screens alone brought in $3.1 million, continuing the trend of 3D/IMAX films being buoyed up beyond opening weekend due to the strength of the higher-priced screens.

Pirate Radio debuted right out of the top ten at $2.8 million. Because it released on just 882 screens, its per-screen average of $3,200 bested seven of the films in the top ten. The movie didn't flop, but it would have needed to at least double its per-screen average to be considered a success.

The real second-week winner was Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire. The drama made the top ten while in release on under 200 screens. The only other film to do that in the past decade, according to Box Office Guru, was Paranormal Activity, which did so just weeks ago. Sometimes lightning does strike twice, but I suspect another explanation. The definition of "per-screen" may have changed--Precious was being played ten times a day, which requires more than one screen to achieve. Still, its $6 million gross and $35,000 per-screen average show the movie has a ways to go at the box office, giving it a promising forecast when it expands again this Friday.

Fantastic Mr. Fox debuted to a $65,000 per screen (though, again, playing ten times a day at each of its four "screen" locations). The stop-motion animated film will open wide over Thanksgiving. With its appeal to both kids and adults, it might be the crowd-pleasing choice, though it will have both Planet 51 and The Princess and the Frog to contend with.

This Friday, the next movie in the Twilight Saga, New Moon, will storm into over 4,000 theatres. Animated Planet 51 will provide some counter-programming for kids, and parents that don't qualify as "Twilight Moms" may want to catch feel-good The Blind Side after they drop off their rabid teenage girls at the theatre.

'Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs' enchants family audiences

By Sarah Sluis

Earning three times as much as the second-place movie, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs whipped up $30.1 million over the weekend. It also earned $2.5 million from its 127 IMAX locations, a

per-location average that was double the non-IMAX total. It doesn't face any competition until two weekends from now, when Disney releases Toy Story and Toy Story 2 as a 3D double feature, so it should perform strongly through its second weekend. People at Sony Pictures Animation also have reason to be happy: it's the highest-grossing opening weekend of any of their movies, including Surf's Up or Open Season.

The other three wide releases earned in the $6-10 million range, though their low production costs should mitigate their lower opening weekend grosses. The Informant! earned $10.5 million, with Matt Damon considered the biggest draw to moviegoers. Its adult-heavy audience could stem its losses in following weeks, since many adults aren't set on seeing a film opening weekend.

The audience for teen draw Jennifer's Body should have turned out in force for opening weekend, but didn't . It scared up $6.8 million, dropping 50% from Friday to Sunday. The reviews didn't match the hype, diminishing the chances of expanding its audience beyond 18-25's, as screenwriter Diablo Cody's Juno was able to do. Many also suspect that younger teens were shut out of the movie since it was rated R.

Jennifer's Body was beat by the soundly unoriginal Love Happens, which sold $8.4 million worth of tickets to an audience of primarily older females.

Bright Star, which is specialty distributor Apparition's first release, did an auspicious $10,000 per

location for a weekend cumulative of $190,000, making good on critic Ray Bennett's prediction that "art-house audiences will swoon." Its rave reviews should help grow that number in coming weeks. Since PG romances are all too rare, Bright Star could also draw in older and more conservative audiences when it expands next week to 120 theatres.

This Friday, Fame will open widest, followed by sci-fi thriller Surrogates and sci-fi horror Pandorum. Other films opening small that we'll be watching include Capitalism: A Love Story (which opens Wednesday), Coco Before Chanel, and I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell.

'The Final Destination' wins another week

By Sarah Sluis

Labor Day weekend proved to be another quiet one at the American box office, as kids headed back to school and lucky people motored out for one last weekend getaway. Since no studio wanted to release a winner on this dead weekend, the number one and two films were holdovers from last week. The grosses from 3D venues pushed The Final Destination to the top with $12.3 million from Friday to Sunday, despite a new offering for males, Gamer. The Gerard Butler sci-fi action movie opened at number four, with a $9.1 million weekend gross.

With no appealing new films at the box office, the second spot went to Inglorious Basterds, now in its third week. The Quentin Tarantino-directed movie added 193 locations and another $11.6 million to its gross, which should cross the $100 million mark next week.

All About Steve, the Sandra Bullock movie that received a unilateral pan, still drummed up $11.2 million in business. Those that saw the film, which I confirmed through a Twitter check, had nothing to say to their friends except "Don't see this!"

Lower down on the list, Extract grabbed the number nine spot with $4.3 million. Better than Idiocracy, and worse than Office Space, the comedy will probably make a bigger impact on DVD than in theatres, where people are more forgiving of a middling quality.

With few new offerings, the rest of the top ten held on to their audiences. District 9 crossed the $100 million mark and brought in $7.1 million. Julie & Julia, which didn't open strong, has turned into a long-tail success story. This week it dropped a slight 24%, the smallest drop in the top ten. If movies drop 50% each week, they will do 85% of their business in the first three weeks, which is considered the industry standard. Going below that number usually indicates a quality film and positive word-of-mouth: The Hangover, for example, only did 55% of its business in the first three weeks. Julie & Julia will likely approach (but not meet) that number. The first three weeks now count for only 73% of the movie's total five-week gross, a number that can only go down, since there are several weeks left in the film's run. With so much attention given to first week grosses, it's worth remembering that movies that appeal to certain demographics, such as older or female audiences, can only be judged a few weeks into their run. (500) Days of Summer, for example, has been hanging out just below the top ten for most of the summer, where it's earned $28.4 million to date.

This Wednesday, dark animated film 9 will open. On Friday, it will be joined by Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself, along with sexy-horror flick Sorority Row and Antarctica-set chiller Whiteout.

'Final Destination' for 3D horror movie: #1

By Sarah Sluis

The 3D format proved to be a big winner for The Final Destination, which earned $28.3 million thanks to the 50% of its locations that released the movie in the pop-out dimension. The release mirrors the success of January horror release My Bloody Valentine 3D, which earned $24.1 million over the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday.

In third place, Halloween II lured in audiences to the tune of $17.4 million, a solid performance that nevertheless convinced the Weinstein Co. that the next movie in the franchise would be filmed in 3D to take advantage of the higher ticket prices and novel scares.

In its second week, Inglourious Basterds dropped 47% to $20 million, a strong showing that brought its cumulative gross to $73.7 million.

The big winner among specialty releases was The September Issue, which grossed $40,000 per theatre. The fashion documentary received a tremendous amount of publicity for a six-theatre run, so I expect the distributors to expand the release pronto--even to audiences outside of New York City, many of whom surely subscribe to Vogue, have heard of Anna Wintour, or know her as the inspiration for The Devil Wears Prada.

Focus Features gave Taking Woodstock a wider release of 1,393 theatres, hoping to attract crowds of followers, but the box office results fell below expectations (the reverse of the Woodstock concert itself). The based-on-a-true-story film brought in $3.7 million and a modest $2,600 per location, a per-theatre gross that still managed to exceed many of the other top ten films.

Among returning movies, Julie & Julia had the most holding power, dropping just 15% in its fourth week to earn $7.4 million and bring its cumulative gross to $70.9 million. The results are below Meryl Streep's past two summer films, Mamma Mia! and The Devil Wears Prada, but have spiked Julia Child cookbook sales to bestseller status and renewed interest in the famed chef. District 9 also put in a strong performance, bringing in another $10.7 million. Now that the Peter Jackson production has earned $90 million in three weeks, the rumored sequel, District 10, may just come to fruition.

This Friday, the comedy Extract from Mike Judge (cult hit Office Space) will release along with All About Steve, a stalker romance starring Sandra Bullock with a really bad haircut. Rounding out the Labor Day offerings will be sci-fi thriller Gamer, which stars Gerard Butler.

'G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra' keeping its mission secret

By Sarah Sluis

Paramount undoubtedly felt burned by the terrible reviews Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen received, though it had the last laugh when the movie turned out to be a tremendous box-office success. For G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra, the studio simply decided to forgo screening the movie for critics--though a few select members of the online media have seen it. Saturating the market with 4,007 screens, it's expected to pull in at least $50 million. Its plot, which involves a super-secret elite force of soldiers who battle with a similarly elite group of terrorists, should please those looking for fight scenes and weapons launches, and not those looking for the plot motivating the battle.

The delightful Julie & Julia, opening in 2,975 theatres, should earn somewhere in the high teens to early twenties. Because its main quadrant is older females, this film's run is less defined by its opening weekend, and more by its longevity. As a food-lover myself, I found the film went down quite easily. Nora Ephron's "gift for endearing female characters," whom she portrays as "uniquely creative individuals" overcoming obstacles, makes this movie great for an uplifting afternoon. As our critic Maria Garcia notes, "Julie Powell was in her late 20s when she began the blog that sparked her writing career, and Julia Child was nearly 40 when she finally graduated from Le Cordon Bleu. We're reminded in this film of the ways in which older women inspire young women, and the vitality which young women like Julie Powell offer women Ephron's age." This is exactly the kind of movie grandmothers, mothers, and daughters would go to and enjoy together.

Horror fans will have yet another option to get their scares this weekend when A Perfect Getaway opens in 2,129 theatres. "A genuinely unexpected twist," along with a self-referential set of main characters who are wannabe screenwriters should set this horror movie apart from the rest.

Comedy-romance Paper Heart opens in 38 theatres. The mockumentary has a definite hipster feel to it, with its self-consciousness and subtle mockery of rural and suburban values. Charlyne Yi carries the film with her endearing awkwardness, and the interviews with people about their experiences in love are a modern update on the interview sections in When Harry Met Sally.

Finally, Paul Giamatti stars in Cold Souls, a tale of people whose souls can be swapped to suit their whims. Our critic Rex Roberts found that "the movie's busy combination of science fiction, satire and absurdity, cloned onto a fairly conventional comedy-drama, favors style over substance. Viewers are encouraged to ponder life's existential dilemma, but [director Sophie] Barthes and [cinematographer-producer Andrij] Parekh offer only irony and sentiment as cynosures." Barthes' work has drawn comparisons to Charlie Kaufman, so fans looking for a little more Being John Malkovich may delight in the echo.

Next Monday, we'll see how G.I. Joe's critic-free strategy worked, whether Julie & Julia pulled in audiences its opening weekend, and if Judd Apatow's Funny People has stayed strong through its second week at the box office.

No bailout for record-breaking 'Fast & Furious'

By Sarah Sluis

The automobile industry may be in decline, but the automobile? Never. In the highest opening of the year, and the highest April opening ever, Fast & Furious earned a whopping $72.5 million this weekend,

surprising industry experts, who had never seen anything bigger in April than the $42 million opening of Anger Management six years ago. The film was expected to open in the $40-50 million range, but instead brought in an estimated $20,950 per screen in its record-breaking finish. The opening weekend also bests the entire box-office gross of the previous sequel The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift. The return of the original star Vin Diesel no doubt helped, but the robust performance of the film could also be viewed as an impact of the recession. While home entertainment competes with the theatre box office, the very fact that seeing a movie involves getting out of the house could work in the industry's favor during a period when many of the unemployed are stuck at home looking for a job. I'm curious to see if theatre owners see a lift in attendance Monday through Friday, as unoccupied workers seek some diversion during the week.

Below Fast & Furious, Monsters vs. Aliens earned a little more than half the amount of last week, $33.5 million. The 3D film will likely remain in the top ten for several weeks to come, and should taper off its drop as 2D screens are removed from the run and profitable 3D screens remain.

The other new picture of the week, Adventureland, came in at number six to earn a light $6 million. Opening on just 1,862 screens, the comedy didn't have the presence of Greg Mottola's previous film, Superbad.

Overture's Sunshine Cleaning broke into the top ten in its fourth week of release, adding 312 screens to its 479-screen run and earning $1.8 million. The star power of Amy Adams and Emily Blunt, as well as a marketing campaign that alluded to the black comedy's Little Miss Sunshine roots, have filled theatres, despite its small run.

The rest of the returning films dropped between 38-58%, a reasonable range. Two week-old releases The Haunting in Connecticut (#3, $9.5 million) and 12 Rounds (#9, $2.3 million) dropped the most, while comedy I Love You, Man (#5, $7.8 million) retained audiences with just a 38% drop. Sci-fi thriller Knowing (#4, $8.1 million), romantic spy movie Duplicity (#7, $4.3 million) and family film Race to Witch Mountain (#8, $3.3 million) rounded out the top ten.

'Four Christmases' spends second week at the top

By Sarah Sluis

With the weekend's two new releases, Cadillac Records and Punisher: War Zone, failing to make an impact with their $3.5 and $4 million grosses, the post-Thanksgiving weekend saw a 50% drop in the box
office as a whole. 

Four Christmases remained at number one, earning $18.1 million and dropping a below-average 41%.  Twilight gave me a pleasant surprise by rising to number two, leveling out after last week's heavy drop and earning $13.1 million.  Director Catherine Hardwicke, who now holds the title of "highest opening weekend ever for a female director," will not return to direct the second project due to "timing" issues.  Unfortunate, given that this opening offers a woman a foothold into the male-dominated profession of film director, but, gender issues aside, the quality of the franchise could definitely be improved, and a change in leadership will be the most effective way to bolster the feeling and execution of the vampire romance.

Frost/Nixon opened on three screens, earning $60,000 per-screen.  The astounding number puts Milk's $50k and Slumdog's $30k per-screen to shame.  The excellent per-screen performance of the movie begs the question--why release on only three screens to begin with?  Given the volume of media and press for Frost/Nixon, the fact-based drama certainly could have opened on more screens while still selling out theatres.  Impressive openings help a film once it gets to the DVD market, but I wonder if Frost/Nixon might have rolled out the bulk of its "buzz" too soon.  Perhaps alluding to the $60k per-screen of Frost/Nixon, THR's Risky Business blog weighed in on the per-screen average metric, a "key indicator of a film's reception among early adopters [and] core audiences."  According to the theory they're using, specialty releases that roll out and expand while dropping less than 50% from a per-screen perspective can safely be called successes.  Slumdog Millionaire and Milk fall into that category (so far), will they be joined by Frost/Nixon?

Complete studio estimates available here.

'Twilight' draws teens, adults to a $70 million opening weekend

By Sarah Sluis

Surpassing both industry ($50-$60 million) and Summit Entertainment's ($40 million) expectations, Twilight earned $70.5 million this weekend.  The astounding figure makes my estimate of $100 million
in three weeks virtually guaranteed, even with this Wednesday's release of PG-13 spectacle Australia and comedy Four Christmases.  Twilight, which made $35.8 million on Friday alone (including midnight screenings from the evening before), dropped minimally on Saturday.  A cult film without crossover appeal usually dies on Saturday, but, like its undead hero, Twilight stayed alive.  The flurry of media around Twilight created a zero-to-sixty in awareness level among those unfamiliar with the source material, drawing out scores of curious viewers, especially mothers.  The film's Mormon connection siphoned away viewers from Disney's Bolt, which finished third at $27 million.  Utah, with its Mormon-heavy, family-oriented population, normally does above-average business with Disney films, but it appears those audiences chose Twilight over Bolt.  Disney expects audiences will turn out for Bolt in weeks to come, but Twilight's passionate fan base undoubtedly swayed groups of filmgoers towards the vampire romance.  Directed by Catherine Hardwicke, the film also turns out to be the biggest opening ever for a female-directed film.  More depressing than inspiring, only 6% of directors are female.  Betcha more than 6% of wannabe directors are female.

Beating out Bolt, Quantum of Solace finished at #2 with $27.4 million.  The best option for moviegoers not entranced by teen vampires or superstar dogs, the Bond film swiftly crossed the $100 million mark and brought its two-week total to $109.4 million.

Below the top three, kid-oriented pictures Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (#4, $16 million) and High School Musical 3 (#7, $2 million) experienced the biggest drops in business due to competition from Twilight and Bolt.  Each fell over 50% from last week, with HSM falling 64.5%.

Role Models ($7.2 million) and Changeling ($2.6 million) each dropped around 30% to finish at #5 and #6.  The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, which expanded in its third week, made $1.6 million and grabbed the #9 spot.  Finishing just outside of the top ten, despite being exhibited in only 32 theatres, Slumdog Millionaire made $994,000, $31,000 per theatre.  Since its release, the film has received an uptick in Oscar buzz.  Unlike Changeling, which lost  Oscar momentum after people went out and saw the film, Slumdog Millionaire has played the underdog card successfully, making those who have seen the film feel as though they have discovered a gem.  If only a fraction of the viewers are like me--I've encouraged a number of friends and family to see the film--Slumdog will be a millionaire many times over.

Full box office results available here.