‘The Butler’ overachieves this weekend, while ‘Kick-Ass 2’ lacks punch

Lee Daniels’ The Butler (2,933 screens) easily outshone all
other films at the box office this weekend, earning $25 million, a figure above what most predictors expected it to
bring in. The film cost $30 million to produce. Based on the true story of an
African-American butler (Forest Whitaker) who worked in the White House under
six presidents, The Butler was
particularly popular with women (60% of viewers) and people over 35 (76% of viewers).
It played most strongly in the Northeast and especially Washington, D.C., where
the film is set. 

It is fairly typical that distribution companies release
dramatic features aimed at women and older audiences in mid to late August. After a summer of tentpoles and 3D sci-fi
blockbusters, these demographics are starved for films that don’t feature men
in capes or multiple explosions. The
Butler was originally slated for an October opening, but TWC wisely decided
to take advantage of this late-summer demand, a choice that the studio is no
doubt very happy with.

The Weinstein Company can also attribute much of The Butler’s success this weekend to its
popularity among African-American audiences, many of whom went to see the film
with their church groups. TWC reached out to many religious leaders in the
black community to promote The Butler,
a popular practice among studios when releasing black- and civil rights-themed
movies. A special trailer, altered from the one shown in theatres, was created to appeal to church parishioners, and the company
even produced a “scripture guide” meant to promote faith-based discussion in
relation to the film. Black audiences made up 39% of total Butler tickets purchased this weekend, a very high percentage.

Unfortunately for Universal, Kick-Ass 2 (2,940 screens) did even more poorly
this weekend than expected. The studio had predicted earnings of nearly $20
million, identical to Kick-Ass’s take
its opening weekend three years ago. However, the sequel—which was made for $28
million—only grossed about $13.5 million,
or less than 70% of its expected profits. This put it in a near tie with Elysium, now in its second week in
theatres. However, Elysium earned
about $40,000 more than Kick-Ass 2,
placing the sci-fi thriller in third place above the superhero sequel, which
came in at fourth. Surprisingly, We’re
the Millers, also in its second week, continued to perform well, grossing
$17.8 million and landing in second place behind The Butler. We’re the Millers
now has the smallest drop in earnings (just 33%) between its opening and
second weekend of any film of the summer.

Like Kick-Ass 2, the two other features opening this
weekend, Jobs and Paranoia, both underperformed. Though they were both smaller releases, Open Road
Films and Relativity Media, respectively, had expected better showings. Jobs (2,381
screens) (a biopic of Apple founder Steve Jobs, played by Ashton Kutcher)
made $6.7 million and achieved a
seventh place finish. Paranoia (2,459 screens), by far the
worst-reviewed film currently in theatres, managed to dredge up a paltry $3.5 million—a disaster for a film
which cost ten times that amount to make, and which stars up-and-coming leading
man Liam Hemsworth (The Hunger Games)
as well as film royalty Harrison Ford and Gary Oldman. 

Lee Daniels’ The Butler’ may nab first place out from under ‘Kick-Ass 2’ this weekend

Summer may be almost over, but
distributors are still hoping to score blockbuster-sized ticket sales before
kids and teenagers head back to school. The Weinstein Company’s Butler and Kick-Ass 2 (from Universal) are expected to earn the top two spots at the box office
this weekend.

 Predictors may expect Kick-Ass
2 (2,940 theatres) to attract more viewers. It has all the trappings of a
summer smash, after all: a sequel about superheroes with a big-name star (Jim
Carrey) and fanboy cred. But don’t expect this film to do Man of Steel-style
numbers.
The original grossed
under $20 million its opening weekend in 2010. It did move a lot of DVDs and
Blu-rays, however, which Universal is citing as justification for a sequel. Kick-Ass
2 is also down a major actor: Nic Cage, whose performance
as a deranged Batman wannabe was a main draw for audience members, does not
appear in this installment. Carrey’s character is meant to fill Cage’s shoes,
but the comedian declined to promote the film, and even bashed it on social
media for its excessive violence in the wake of tragedies like the Newtown
shooting. The other factor that gave Kick-Ass so much buzz was
then-11-year-old lead Chloe Grace Moretz’s, um, colorful dialogue, which fully
justified the feature’s R rating. But Moretz is 15 now, and hearing her curse
like a sailor and ridicule her co-stars just doesn’t have the same double
take-inducing shock value. Universal is predicting that Kick-Ass 2 will
gross $19.8 million this weekend, an identical figure to the original. This
number would fall just short of The Butler’s expected haul, however.

A historical drama depicting
crucial moments in African-American history from the 1920s through the Reagan
era, The Butler (2,933 theatres) reads more Oscar-bait
than box office smash. But the Weinstein Company has been promoting the film
like mad. The presence of costar Oprah Winfrey (who hasn’t played a role other
than herself onscreen since 1998’s Beloved) alone should ensure a sizable female audience. Forest Whitaker is bankable as
protagonist Cecil Gaines, and audiences will be looking forward to catching
Robin Williams, John Cusack, James Marsden, Liev Schreiber, and Alan Rickman as
assorted Commanders in Chief. The film also appeals to minority viewers and TWC
has been promoting it heavily to church groups as well. In addition to all
these demographics, The Butler is likely to gain a significant
viewership from the overlooked 40+ set, who are drained from a summer’s worth
of comic book adaptations. Finally, the film is rated PG-13, which gives it a
greater built-in audience share than Kick-Ass 2, which
is rated R. The Butler could easily earn $20 million this
weekend, putting it just ahead of its rival’s predicted take.

Smaller releases Jobs (2,381 theaters) and Paranoia (2,459 theatres) also bow today. Neither has scored well with critics—Paranoia
in particular is currently boasting a horrendous 2% rating on Rotten
Tomatoes. Jobs stars Ashton Kutcher as the celebrated Apple
founder, and the actor brings enough appeal to likely land the biopic in third
place. Both films should bring in under $10 million. With no other PG-13
comedies currently in theaters, expect We’re the Millers to continue to pull in its portion of younger moviegoers. As the sole
recent animated kids movie, Planes is
in a similar position, which should boost its sales as well—though Despicable
Me 2, which came out over a month and a half ago, is still playing in over 2,000 theatres. 

'Elysium' should lead, with 'Planes' at its tail

This weekend brings four new releases, two today and two that jumped the gun with an early release on Wednesday. The frontrunner is Elysium (3,284 theatres), which has two things going for it: District 9 writer/director Neill Blomkamp, and star Matt Damon. Critics have been

more tepid towards Elysium: It's tracking just 66% positive, compared to District 9's 90% "Fresh" rating (it also scored an Oscar nod for Best Picture). Our critic Michael Sauter was one of those who came out in favor of the futuristic dystopia. He calls out its "hurtling momentum,
with enough boom-crash-splatter explosiveness to wow even the most
hardened action junkie," which pairs well with a "topical, deeply
resonant theme and premise." Others (including myself) thought the plot had some gaping Swiss cheese-holes, with commentary not nearly as biting as District 9, and I suspect audiences will come away with a similar spectrum of reactions. Curiosity and name-brand recognition should bring Elysium over a $30 million opening.

Joining Elysium is Planes (3,702 theatres), the final animated release of the summer. Both Turbo and live-action/animation hybrid The Smurfs 2 fell victim to animation fatigue, and the huge amount of animated product in release should definitely take a slice out of Planes' pie. An opening over $20 million would be good news for this "simplistic knockoff" of Cars, which Disney moved from direct-to-video to theatrical release. "Why didn’t someone bring the pixie dust that makes
Pixar’s animated flicks a cut above in wit, style and detail?" our critic Harry Haun bemoans. Still, plenty of young kids are obsessed with planes, cars, and all things mechanical, and this movie will be catnip to those youngsters--if not the parents who bring them to theatres.

A low-level pot dealer (Jason Sudeikis) becomes a drug runner to get himself out of a pinch in We're the Millers (3,260 theatres), assembling a fake family (including Jennifer Aniston as a stripper) in the process. Our critic David Noh loved the cast and the premise, but regrets that the "direction and writing are so scattershot, they engender only
fitful amusement." A real highlight is Nick Offerman as a goody two-shoes RV owner--he's
probably one of my favorite comedy players right now. We're the Millers earned $6.7 million on Wednesday, and its totals should rise to the upper-$20 millions by Monday.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (3,031 theatres) also opened on Wednesday, earning $5.4 million, which also should put it on track for a weekend somewhere north of $20 million. This is an action-fantasy for the tween set, with "Harry Potter-esque assets" that become less appealing the older and more discerning the audience gets, according to FJI's Doris Toumarkine.

This weekend's specialty offerings include In a World (3 theatres), a comedy starring Lake Bell as a wannabe voiceover artist that "has its moments," according to Toumarkine. Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine will expand from 50 to 116 locations in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see if Elysium indeed grabbed the top spot, and how the other three new releases finished in this close August weekend.