Lee Daniels’ The Butler’ may nab first place out from under ‘Kick-Ass 2’ this weekend

Summer may be almost over, but
distributors are still hoping to score blockbuster-sized ticket sales before
kids and teenagers head back to school. The Weinstein Company’s Butler and Kick-Ass 2 (from Universal) are expected to earn the top two spots at the box office
this weekend.

 Predictors may expect Kick-Ass
2 (2,940 theatres) to attract more viewers. It has all the trappings of a
summer smash, after all: a sequel about superheroes with a big-name star (Jim
Carrey) and fanboy cred. But don’t expect this film to do Man of Steel-style
numbers.
The original grossed
under $20 million its opening weekend in 2010. It did move a lot of DVDs and
Blu-rays, however, which Universal is citing as justification for a sequel. Kick-Ass
2 is also down a major actor: Nic Cage, whose performance
as a deranged Batman wannabe was a main draw for audience members, does not
appear in this installment. Carrey’s character is meant to fill Cage’s shoes,
but the comedian declined to promote the film, and even bashed it on social
media for its excessive violence in the wake of tragedies like the Newtown
shooting. The other factor that gave Kick-Ass so much buzz was
then-11-year-old lead Chloe Grace Moretz’s, um, colorful dialogue, which fully
justified the feature’s R rating. But Moretz is 15 now, and hearing her curse
like a sailor and ridicule her co-stars just doesn’t have the same double
take-inducing shock value. Universal is predicting that Kick-Ass 2 will
gross $19.8 million this weekend, an identical figure to the original. This
number would fall just short of The Butler’s expected haul, however.

A historical drama depicting
crucial moments in African-American history from the 1920s through the Reagan
era, The Butler (2,933 theatres) reads more Oscar-bait
than box office smash. But the Weinstein Company has been promoting the film
like mad. The presence of costar Oprah Winfrey (who hasn’t played a role other
than herself onscreen since 1998’s Beloved) alone should ensure a sizable female audience. Forest Whitaker is bankable as
protagonist Cecil Gaines, and audiences will be looking forward to catching
Robin Williams, John Cusack, James Marsden, Liev Schreiber, and Alan Rickman as
assorted Commanders in Chief. The film also appeals to minority viewers and TWC
has been promoting it heavily to church groups as well. In addition to all
these demographics, The Butler is likely to gain a significant
viewership from the overlooked 40+ set, who are drained from a summer’s worth
of comic book adaptations. Finally, the film is rated PG-13, which gives it a
greater built-in audience share than Kick-Ass 2, which
is rated R. The Butler could easily earn $20 million this
weekend, putting it just ahead of its rival’s predicted take.

Smaller releases Jobs (2,381 theaters) and Paranoia (2,459 theatres) also bow today. Neither has scored well with critics—Paranoia
in particular is currently boasting a horrendous 2% rating on Rotten
Tomatoes. Jobs stars Ashton Kutcher as the celebrated Apple
founder, and the actor brings enough appeal to likely land the biopic in third
place. Both films should bring in under $10 million. With no other PG-13
comedies currently in theaters, expect We’re the Millers to continue to pull in its portion of younger moviegoers. As the sole
recent animated kids movie, Planes is
in a similar position, which should boost its sales as well—though Despicable
Me 2, which came out over a month and a half ago, is still playing in over 2,000 theatres. 

'Megamind' goes up against 'Due Date,' 'For Colored Girls'

By Sarah Sluis

Following two weeks of horror movies tailored to fright-seeking audiences, three diverse films enter the pack, setting the stage for the busy end-of-year season at the box office.

DreamWorks Animation releases its third animated film of the year, Megamind, to 3,954 theatres, including almost two hundred IMAX locations. "There's something for everyone in this redemption tale, romantic comedy and affectionate tribute to pop-cultural tropes," critic Frank Lovece enthused. The family comedy's broad appeal should lead to an opening weekend of around $50 million, more than the studio's How to Train Your Dragon but less than Shrek Forever After.

Audiences looking to repeat the laughs of The Hangover may end up with just a headache when they catch Due Date (3,355 theatres), the Zach Galifianakis/Robert Downey Jr. road trip comedy directed by The Hangover's Todd Phillips. "Due Date, with its bickering, abrasive cross-country travelers, runs out of gas well before the blessed event finally arrives," critic Kevin Lally complains, noting that the "so-called comic situations are more vicious and unpleasant than funny." Despite the tepid reviews, the comedy's connections to The Hangover should entice viewers, giving it an opening in the neighborhood of $30 million.

Tyler Perry fans will see the director take on a more serious tone in For Colored Girls (2,127 theatres), an adaptation of a 1970s black feminist play. According to critic David Noh, Perry "turned the play into the weepiest, Oprah-ready soap-fest imaginable," and his "tin ear for dialogue" only makes the "overwrought" moments worse. An ensemble cast of black women, including Janet Jackson, Whoopi Goldberg and Thandie Newton, should draw audiences, as will Perry's name, but any Oscar hopes for this film appear to be slim.

The true-life story of Valerie Plame Wilson, whose identity as a spy was revealed in a game of political hardball, is revealed in Fair Game (46 theatres). Naomi Watts pays Plame, and Sean Penn her husband. According to critic Daniel Eagan, the drama "faces an uphill battle at the box office," and once it gets into the fallout of the incident, "the filmmakers don't give viewers much of a chance to make up their own minds about what happened."

The prolific documentarian Alex Gibney strikes again with Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer (2 theatres), which Eagan dubbed "a must for political junkies." Releasing only in New York, the profile of the state's former governor should drum up heavy business.

The Australian Western Red Hill stars Ryan Kwanten ("True Blood") and will make its debut in 5 theatres. "Strong performances and taut direction," according to critic Maitland McDonagh, make the movie "never less than watchable," and offers audiences "the appeal of familiar genre conventions with a twist.

Word on the street is that Academy voters seeing screenings of 127 Hours have fainted�a claim that brings to mind the horror movies of yesteryear. Opening in 4 theatres, James Franco stars in a "virtual one-man show," according to Lally, playing real-life hiker Aron Ralston, an adventurous outdoorsman who survived being trapped under a rock by cutting off his own arm. Director Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) turns "a most unpleasant predicament into a brisk, visually exciting and�dare we say it?�entertaining movie experience."

This week's films represent the next couple of months to come�plenty of crowd-pleasing material along with awards-seeking films.

Next week, look for coverage of the Amazon Film Festival, as I report from Manaus, Brazil.

Will 'Beverly Hills Chihuahua' bark its way to the top?

By Sarah Sluis

It's another crowded week at the box office, and early yapping from moviegoers places the decidedly silly

Beverly Hills Chihuahua (3,215 screens) as the one to beat, with tracking reports estimating a $30 million estimated take, which I predict will be on the high side.

This week brings us two ideological lampoons (Religulous and An American Carol) and two young urban comedies (Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist and How to Lose Friends and Alienate People).  Religulous (502 screens) has agnostic Bill Maher taking on religious dogma, while American Carol (1,639 screens) has conservative David Zucker lampooning Michael Moore while taking on politics and patriotism--leaving agnostic conservatives in for a tough viewing decision.  Nick & Norah's Infinite
Playlist (2,421 screens), a "one crazy night" teen film, might see some overlap with How to Lose Friends and Alienate People (1,750 screens), as those in the twenty-something range debate whether they want to relive a bit of high school or look ahead to a loosely defined workplace/ambition comedy (I think Nick & Norah will win).  A.O. Scott called Nick & Norah "like Martin Scorsese's After Hours filtered through the high school sensibility of John Hughes, or Richard Linklater's Before Sunrise remade for Nickelodeon."  Conversely, How to Lose Friends is expected to have paltry returns and make it up on the DVD market.  Say no more.

Ambitious literary adaptation Blindness (1,690 screens), the rare film that combines the thrill of depicting a worldwide apocalypse with arthouse allegory (except, of course, that this description fits upcoming release The Road) has been slowed by disappointed critics that wish director Fernando Meirelles could have awed them as much as he did in City of God.  The film will have to count on forgiving audiences giving the thumbs up to their friends in order to do well at the box office.

Flash of Genius also looks to be a feel-good family picture in a little man vs. the auto industry fight over his invention of the intermittent windshield wiper--except it isn't, and will likely be a victim of the crowded weekend.  With a PG-13 rating, and reviews calling out the film for its slow pace, families will likely opt for Chihuahua, or one of the sneak previews of next week's PG-rated sports drama The Express.

Arthouse western Appaloosa expands to 1,045 screens this weekend, and another little film, Jonathan Demme's Rachel Getting Married, opens on nine screens.  Anne Hathaway gives the film a high profile, and it's a brilliant career move on her part to break out from her Disney-manicured image.  The film itself has a meandering view of the wedding, with an unusual amount of musical interludes coloring the white suburban house with a bit of bohemia.  The eccentricity is played out without question, but in one final dancing scene (featuring an approximation of belly and can-can dancers and West African beats) I couldn't help but think of how this scene would fit into another film altogether--say the horrified looks of the Wedding Crashers.

Along with these new releases, holdover Eagle Eye, only in its second week, will certainly stay in the top five, while Burn After Reading, four weeks into its run, will probably be bumped down a few places.