Who exactly will be buying tickets to 'What to Expect When You're Expecting'?

I don't have particularly high hopes for the box office of What to Expect When You're Expecting, a comedy based on the pregnancy how-to book. It looks funny-ish, but I predict it will do its biggest business on Netflix and DVD, not at the box office. Why? The people who will find the most humor in the situation are probably young parents, exactly the people with the least amount of time, energy, and money to hire a babysitter to see the latest movie. They are television's favorite audience, not exhibitors' favorite audience. Look how badly the Sarah Jessica Parker movie I Don't Know How She Does It bombed. The movie was about a busy corporate mom who has no time to make something for her child's bake sale. Is that the kind of person who has time to see a movie with her fellow moms in order to laugh at their lot? No.

Lionsgate just released a new trailer for What to Expect that focuses entirely on the dads, hoping to draw in the male audience. That doesn't seem like much of a stretch, but I'm worried about the majority of moviegoers, who have only a tenuous connection to or interest in parenthood.

There are so many demographics that won't want to see this movie. Teens, I hope, unless they're unhealthily obsessed with "16 & Pregnant." Singles. Parents of older children. Empty nesters who feel alienated by the talk of competitive parenting and the most recent declarations of what modern pregnancy is supposed to be like. And for couples without children, doesn't this sound like the worst possible date night movie?

Thinking about movies about parenting young children that have done well with a broad audience, my first thought was Look Who's Talking. I actually saw that quite young, enchanted by the talking baby concept. This was a movie that made almost $300 million in 1989. It had some of the parenting young children moments, but also a romance, and, of course, the talking baby gimmick. It appealed to parents, but it wasn't a "parents" movie, which is exactly what What to Expect is trying to be. It's possible that the upcoming release's ensemble cast of diverse, popular stars will draw audiences despite the subject matter. But this is a movie commenting on a pretty stage-specific event that doesn't seem to have much to offer to people who haven't gone through this life stage or said good-bye to it a long time ago. If Lionsgate manages to pull off the marketing of this May 18th release, I will be very, very impressed.

 

Could 'The Help' be this summer's second female-driven hit?

By Sarah Sluis

This summer began with an R-rated un-rom com, Bridesmaids, which opened softly but has since earned over six times its opening weekend. The highly anticipated adaptation of the novel The Help releases today, which I predict will soon have membership to the $100 million club. According to a Variety article published today, the studio held over 300 advance screenings of the movie that targeted black and faith-based audiences, as well as some library crowds. I took a look at some of The Help's comparable films to try to figure out the movie's prospects, which are currently looking quite bright.

Eat Pray Love (2010)
Opening weekend: $23 million. Domestic Total: $80 million.
Unlike The Help, Eat Pray Love was hampered by poor reviews. Just 46% of audiences liked the movie, according to Rotten Tomatoes, compared to 89% of audiences who have previewed The Help. Like The Help, Eat Pray Love was based on a bestseller popular in book clubs, but interest stopped at older white women. Many people dismissed the movie as covering "white girl problems," and the midlife crisis impetus for the woman's journeys alienated younger viewers. Prediction: The Help will blow this release out of the water.

Julie & Julia (2009)
Opening weekend: $20 million. Domestic Total: $94 million.
Another movie based on a popular book, Julie & Julia had much better reviews. It opened lower than Eat Pray Love, but audiences kept coming, giving the movie a higher finish. The casting of Meryl Streep, who was nominated for an Oscar, was also a boon. Prediction: The Help will do at least as well, in part because it also appeals to faith-based and black audiences.

Bridesmaids (2011)
Opening weekend: $26 million. Domestic Total (so far): $166 million.
Plenty of people who loved reading The Help would not be caught dead watching this R-rated comedy. However, it's worth noting that even with a lot of marketing and media exposure, this comedy only opened to $26 million. If The Help opens low, its performance the second and third weeks will spell whether the drama is a success or not. Prediction: Tough competition, but I think The Help has a chance of matching Bridesmaids.

The Blind Side (2009)
Opening weekend: $34 million Domestic Total: $255 million.
Comparison between The Blind Side and The Help may be the most valuable. They both share similar plotlines, about white people helping black people. Faith-based audiences responded particularly well to the Sandra Bullock drama, which is a bit more Christian than The Help, in my opinion. However, I don't know how popular The Blind Side was with black audiences. A movie like The Help will have much more resonance with black audiences than Blind Side, whose black character was mostly mute and unexplored as a person. In contrast, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer have been giving tons of interviews and many people will come to the movie to see them. The sports theme of The Blind Side was an automatic draw for male audiences, who may be less enthusiastic about The Help. Prediction: Unless The Help ends up in the Best Picture category like The Blind Side, I think The Help will come in underThe Blind Side's total.

A final thought. If Disney/DreamWorks has been successful in marketing The Help to black audiences, the movie's opening weekend could be much bigger than most female-driven adaptations of "book club" novels. Tyler Perry's Madea movies routinely earn half their total haul the first weekend, when middle-aged black women turn out in force to see these movies.

First-day estimates of The Help should post tomorrow. Currently, 31% of advance ticket sales on Fandango are for the movie.

Hipsters, Christians form new indie bases

By Sarah Sluis

Just last week I interviewed a filmmaker who lamented the decline in sources of funding for independent filmmaking. He counted himself as one of the lucky ones, and his "indie" documentary was in fact being distributed by a major studio. So if many independent movies have had to get "bigger" to survive, the other end of the market has had to get smaller to survive, a trend highlighted by two recent New York Times pieces. Besides the fact that they're serving micro-niches, these small indie distributors seem to be serving up movies for audiences just like themselves--be they hipsters or Christians.

A trend that's been covered lately is the use of alternative venues to show small indie films, often to a

hipster crowd intent on finding the undiscovered and unappreciated. As The New York Times reports, boutique theatres and bars that double as performance venues often exhibit the movies. The latter brings to mind the kind of places that book rising indie bands. In fact, as the article explains, many independent music companies are branching out into film, and applying the techniques they honed for musical acts to movies. Their extremely small scale allows for the promotion of movies with infinitesimal audiences: the article mentions the company Factory 25, which has just one employee and needs so sell 400 DVD-LP combinations to break even, out of runs of 1,000.

The "boutique" concept has already been identified and scaled-up by theatre chains, which have added in-theatre dining and other amenities like reserved seating or lounges to create a luxury cinema experience, but part of the appeal in the indie setting is not only the unique venue but seeing a unique, underground film, shared with just a handful of people in an almost bootleg environment. I'm not sure how much this trend can grow, but it presents new ways for audiences to catch movies, and perhaps a technique that larger independent movies can exploit to gain audiences and positive word-of-mouth.

Besides the hipster movie crowd, religious audiences that may have had only straight-to-DVD offerings are also showing up in theatres. The faith-based audience seems to make itself known in waves, occasionally propelling a film like The Passion of the Christ to the top ten, making Fireproof the top independent movie in 2008, and turning the faith-friendly The Blind Side into a $250 million Oscar-nominated juggernaut. The latest movie to appeal to the faith-based audience, What If.., is another made-by-us-for-us movie that debuted to a $2,000 per-screen average on 23 screens this past weekend. The New York Times profiled the director, Dallas Jenkins, as well as the group financing the picture--a large church outside of Chicago. While it doesn't seem as if What If... will be joining the line of religious-themed success stories because of its smallish box-office debut, it's interesting to see these two very different market demographics both reaching their audiences through the specialty film market.

Pixar tries to convince college students they're not too old for 'Toy Story 3'

By Sarah Sluis

To build buzz for Toy Story 3, Pixar is turning to college students. While twenty-somethings aren't usually big consumers of animated films, the latest Woody-Buzz Lightyear movie has a few things going for it. First, nostalgia: many of these kids grew up with the first two movies and may have some interest in the third.

Second, the story: the plot follows Andy's toys, which have been donated after he goes away to college. What college kid can't relate to coming home and finding that their bedroom has been changed by their parents? Third, crossover family movies: Alice in Wonderland wouldn't have racked up over $300 million at the box office without the help of non-family viewers, and last summer's Up also played widely across demographics.

Like the college-based rollout for Paramount's Paranormal Activity or the free advance screenings popularized by studios like Fox Searchlight, twenty college towns will have abbreviated, cliffhanger screenings of Toy Story 3 that are being promoted virally. The tear-off flyer image on the left, for example, takes you to a website informing you of the screening. Because it's not unusual for studios to preview full-length feature films in advance of their release, there has been some backlash, like this post on FilmJunk that called the promotion a rip-off. In case people didn't spot the flyer, there's also a link to the screenings on Facebook, in a tab next to the Pixar fan page.

Will it work? My guess is--somewhat. Pixar films are fantastic and well-worth a night out, but for some, they lack the cachet of saying that you just saw gross-out movie The Hangover or another more edgy option. But at the same time, the success of Oscar-winning films like Wall-E and Up has paved the way for older, childless people to go back to animated movies without feeling like they are watching something intended for children. They're so critically acclaimed, they're worth seeing in their own right. By offering advance, abbreviated screenings, Pixar will be showing audiences what so many people have already discovered--these films appeal to all ages. Once you see a Pixar film, you understand what everyone's been talking about, so these screenings should help connect college students to an animated genre that's transformed since their own childhood.

Movie-related Twitters more bark than bite

By Sarah Sluis

Twitter has been this year's media darling, especially among influencers like media personalities, celebrities, and journalists. But the 140-character updates on whereabouts, opinions, and random thoughts haven't really changed how people choose what movies to see.

A recent survey of Movietickets.com customers who had just bought tickets online and were Twitter users revealed a modest effect. When asked, "Did Twitter affect your desire to see any of the following films in the past year?," New Moon ranked highest, with 52% responding yes.

According to Joel Cohen, VP of MovieTickets.com, Twitter added to the buzz of the New Moon campaign. The studio would release a new trailer, posters, or clips every few weeks, encouraging the Internet community to weigh in on the new information. "Twitter gives people the ability to share what they think, and let it spread quickly," he explained.

However, the second film on the list received half the amount of "yes" votes. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen earned just 23% of the vote. The much-hyped Bruno, which many said was felled by negative Twitter buzz? Only 8% said it influenced their desire to see the film one way or the other. Twitter, it turns out, has a fairly limited impact on box office, a view shared by Cohen. "I don't think you're going to have a change in moviegoing if people read something on Twitter that is the opposite of what they were going to do anyway or what they were feeling already." Instead, it reflects the general consensus of whether a film is "good" or "bad."

Cohen also gave Screener a sneak peak at how Avatar is doing. So far, 78% of the buyers have been male. The vast majority of ticket buyers fall into the over 25 range--though all this information reflects the people taking initiative and punching in their credit card numbers, and not any additional tickets they may have bought for friends, significant others, and children.

Over 90% of the tickets have been purchased for 3D screenings. "This will be the first time a lot of adults have seen 3D," Cohen explained, since most 3D titles have been animated films. Their embrace of the medium, sight unseen, bodes well for Avatar, especially given the premium prices on 3D and IMAX tickets.

However, the mega-budget tentpole hasn't even cracked their top ten of bestsellers, despite a lead time of over four months (tickets went on sale in August). "It just doesn't have the built-in fan base we see in a lot films in our top ten," Cohen explained, which include literary properties like Harry Potter and Twilight.

When Avatar hits theatres tomorrow, the Twitterati should not be feared. They're just another form of word-of-mouth--available to all the eyes on the Internet but mattering to very few.

Love, Peace and Horror: Two horror franchises go up against 'Taking Woodstock'

By Sarah Sluis

Where better to put a "solid but minor film from Ang Lee" (according to Kirk Honeycutt) than the last week of summer, when it's the most enticing offering of the bunch? Taking Woodstock, which opened on Wednesday in New York and L.A., expands to 1,393 theatres today. The "low-wattage film about a high-wattage event" is episodic and behind-the-scenes, and focuses on the small, peripheral moments over the big, iconic ones. Fascination with hippie culture has yet to wane, so the subject matter is certain to entice both the original hippies and the younger generations that have adopted some of their core values.

In the horror realm, it's death by serial killer or death by fate Neither Halloween 2 nor The Final Destination screened for critics, though a Variety reviewer did manage to see The Final Destination and pronounce it "as developed as a text message," which should cement its appeal among the text-messaging crowd. The Final Destination will release in 3,121 theatres, including 1,678 3D screens, so the premium ticket prices at half its venues should give the horror flick an edge over Halloween 2. Directed by Rob Zombie, Halloween 2 (3,025 screens) is a remake of the 1981 horror flick--after Halloween 8 or so, they decided to start back at the beginning. Zombie has a legion of fans and is renowned for his mastery of the grindhouse aesthetic, so the movie has a good chance to draw in horror aficionados. However, its off-holiday release date isn't ideal, though it's tough to say how much people will care.

Six screens in the fashion capital, New York City, will show The September Issue, a behind-the-scenes look at the woman who inspired The Devil Wears Prada: Vogue Editor-in-Chief Anna Wintour. The documentary follows Wintour and her staffers as they create the 2008 September issue of Vogue, traditionally the biggest and most filled with advertising. Like the editors the filmmakers documented, the film itself (and specifically the editor Azin Samari) "stylishly distills hundreds of hours of footage into a vibrantly energetic narrative."

On Monday we'll circle back and see who won the weekend: Will the Nazi killers in Inglourious Basterds have a second week of glory? Will the hippies rise above? And how will horror fans choose between The Final Destination and Halloween 2?

'Avatar' trailer igniting fans

By Sarah Sluis

Fox released the trailer for Avatar this morning, and it's confirming that this movie will be the must-see event in the holiday movie season. Since 25 minutes of the film were released at Comic-Con, and 15 minutes

of footage will be previewed tomorrow to those who received their IMAX

tickets, awareness and twittered first impressions are already rising, a good four months before its release.

The trailer opens with a technically stunning image of a space station and plane (a more polished version of Star Wars), and then segues into a series of aerial shots over the Na'vi planet, covered in acacia trees. Then we see Sam Worthington, who plays a paralyzed ex-Marine, rolling out of a ship in a wheelchair. In a laboratory, he sees his animated avatar floating in liquid before undergoing a process by which he inhabits the form. The rest of the trailer is a build-up montage of battles and hints of Worthington's relationship with a Na'vi woman (Zoe Saldana). Cameron claims to have had the idea for over fourteen years, but held back from making the movie until he could create a believable alien that audiences could identify with. The blue aliens in the trailer are tinged with the patina of CGI, but those who have seen the 3D images at Comic-Con, on a big screen say they look more realistic in a theatrical setting.

Cribbing from an Internet-supplied plot synopsis (potential spoilers included), the story of Avatar is strikingly similar to that of Pocahontas: a man befriends the natives (or, in this case, becomes one), and is won over to their viewpoint as he also becomes romantically involved with one of them. When the two sides enter into a conflict, he's forced to make a decision.

The story of a mole who changes his sympathies is a familiar one, and can be found in every genre, from spy movies to romantic comedies. There's a reason it sticks around: beneath a superficial premise there's an opportunity to make deep, thought-provoking commentary on the groups involved. Sci-fi movie District 9, which opened last week, also involves a human who becomes alien, and in the process starts to advocate for the "others."

James Cameron is working off an incredibly strong template, and this focus on story and action should broaden the appeal of Avatar to a wide range of viewers. Fox is marketing the movie with the tagline "by the director of Titanic," which

alludes not only to his most successful film, but also its

similarity to the new one. After all, Titanic, is as much an action film as a historical romance, just as Avatar seems to be not just a sci-fi action film, but a story about the perils of technology and colonialism.

IMAX showing a 16-minute first-look at 'Avatar'

By Sarah Sluis

In an unusual but not unprecedented move, a 16-minute sizzle reel of Avatar footage will be shown in over 100 IMAX theatres next Friday, August 21. A similar, slightly longer reel was recently shown at Comic-Con in San Diego. While originally 20th Century Fox's plan was "Show up, and we'll show you the clips," they have wised up to the potential crowds, and opted for an Internet-based clicking contest. Tickets will be given away at 3pm EST Monday, August 17th to the fastest clickers.

Why would a studio give away so much footage? From one perspective, it clearly shows they're confident about Avatar. I also suspect that this is a move to combat studio fears about having a big-budget movie that's not based on a "pre-sold" title. There was no Avatar comic book, best-selling novel, historical event, or television show. The idea is unproven, and people often don't want to risk the unfamiliar. Teased with sixteen minutes of Avatar, people will start talking more about the premise. Maybe part of the surprise will fade, but more people will be interested in seeing the film. It's a double-edged sword. I love the buzz and anticipation that comes before seeing a much-hyped movie, but when it fails to deliver, I'm more disappointed at seeing a "good" movie that was supposed to have been "great." Going into a film assuming it will be horrible, or a straight-up genre picture, can often make you appreciate the ways it has gone above and beyond your minimal expectations. While I hope to catch a glimpse of some Avatar footage before its release, for me, the pre-sold aspect of this movie is writer/director/producer James Cameron. I loved Terminator, Aliens and Titanic. Cameron's movies have connected with fans, who see them again and again, and most people in America have seen these films, no small feat. That he was able to achieve success with both a historic romance/disaster and sci-fi action films makes me respect him even more. 20th Century Fox will release the film during the winter movie season, December 18, 2009, so hopes are high that Cameron can deliver an unforgettable film that will become part of our cultural shorthand.

Twitter is just another form of word-of-mouth advertising, not a harbinger of doom

By Sarah Sluis

So last weekend, Bruno did big business on Friday, then dropped dramatically through the weekend. Who's to blame? According to some, Twitter.

An article posted in The Wrap (on Thursday, before the movie released) posited that the new communication tool could spread word-of-mouth reviews even faster, making disappointing films drop before the weekend is through, instead of on their second weekend. Time seconded the article, which was in turn followed by a backlash on Movie Marketing Madness, which cited an even more vehement backlash on The Hot Blog.

The gist is that information is disseminated faster and faster (through Twitter), making movies that are bombs more easily recognizable. However, Bruno was something of a "fan" film, the kind that normally has outsized grosses on Friday because people want to be the first to see it. Couldn't that be the reason? I noted on Monday that most of the other comedies in the top ten (The Proposal, The Hangover) barely dropped at all, indicating that people just weren't that interested in seeing Bruno. Perhaps they felt they had already had their fill of Bruno from all of his talk show appearances, done in character.

Also, Twitter isn't new. It's the same idea as AOL Instant Messenger away messages, which people use to broadcast their whereabouts, and Facebook status updates. The only difference is, it's more visible, which has made it the darling of journalists. Feelings about the Iraq election, for example, could be viewed not only by someone's friends, but the whole world. You can do a Twitter search for "Harry Potter," for example (one of the "hot trending" topics right now) and instantly have access to the vox populi. The "man on the street" is replaced by "Je_taime_Erik: has seen Harry Potter 6 and is impressed." The sheer volume of Harry Potter-related tweets shows the excitement over the film. Even when people grumble about authenticity, they're not giving a negative review, but voicing an opinion that can make people even more eager to see the film, so they can weigh in as well. Bruno, apparently, did not inspire that level of engagement. Negative or positive

tweets don't matter nearly as much as volume. The question to ask is, "Is this the kind of film that people will talk (or tweet) about before and after?

People love talking about films they loved (or hated), and Twitter is

just another place to do that. There's something to be said for the

amount of people on my Facebook (which I prefer over Twitter) who have

their status updates set to "Going tonight Harry Potter" or "[insert comment

about] Harry Potter." It makes the film more of a must-see. Yes,

this happens more quickly than if you were to wait until the next time

you have coffee with your friend or speak to him/her on the telephone.

In focusing on people's impressions of movies after they see them, these journalists often overlook forward-looking statements like "JaRaized: On our way to watch Harry Potter and The Half Blood Prince! Wheeeeeee!" and people saying things like "Going to tonight with [insert friend]" or ""Who wants to go see Harry Potter with me?" Looking at random people's plans can help studios (and journalists) gauge interest and also measure the effectiveness of a marketing campaign. People's tweets do serve as word-of-mouth advertising, and can even recruit audience members. When Sugahill tweeted "I dont have anyone to go see Harry potter with :(", and Etsears tweeted "...Also, I need someone to see Harry Potter with me. Anyone?" I bet it was only a matter of time before these Twitter users found a friend to join them.

I see Twitter as more of a reflection of people's interest in a film, as well as a visible, written version of "word-of-mouth." According to this Nielsen survey, word-of-mouth and online are among the top four ways people hear about a film, but I think it's no coincidence that studio advertising from television and in-theatre are the other big two. Personally, as an 18-34 female speaking, I think people like to see the trailer and commercials for a movie as well as some kind of social reinforcement, whether it's a recommendation from a friend or a pre-release conversation along the lines of "I really want to see this movie!" Twitter is certainly part of that, but it doesn't have the power to make a film bomb over one day.

'Trek' in hot pursuit of 'Angels & Demons'

By Sarah Sluis

Angels & Demons made the usual sequel dip, earning $48 million this weekend, only 62% of The Da Vinci Code's opening weekend. Because the book Angels & Demons wasn't nearly as popular as The Da Vinci Code, which had a Mona Lisa plotline that captivated readers' imaginations, the studio had expected a smaller opening. The popularity of Star Trek, however, likely prevented the opening weekend from crossing the $50 million mark, as did the film's older-skewing audience, which isn't as keen on turning out to see a film the first weekend.

In its second week, Star Trek earned nearly as much as Angels & Demons, pulling in $43 million, a mere 42% drop from last week. Wolverine, by comparison, dropped 69% in its second week, and another 44% this week. Because of Trek's below-average drop for a tentpole film, as well as its strong weekday earnings, it's now just $4 million shy of Wolverine's $151 million total. Its marketing efforts overseas have paid off too, as international audiences have finally taken notice of the franchise. Based on the success of Star Trek, expect Paramount to arc out the story across multiple sequels.

The rest of the top ten, combined, earned only about $20 million, each dropping minimally from the week before. With Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian releasing this Friday, family films like PG-rated Monsters vs. Aliens, which dropped only 8% this week, and G-rated Earth will likely fall to the bottom of the top ten or out altogether.

By contrast, female-oriented films Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and Obsessed, which came in at number four and five this week, earning $6.8 and $4.5 million, won't see any competition for quite some time. It's another month until romantic comedy The Proposal, which has seen strong advance word, will open widely.

This Memorial Day weekend will please adults and families alike. Adventure comedy Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian has already blitzed kids and parents with advertising, and the addition of Amy Adams adds female appeal to a film whose first outing was toplined by males. R-rated Terminator Salvation, which parents will hopefully avoid bringing their kids to, will also attempt to re-launch and re-center a franchise that lost some of its resonance through projects like television show "The Sarah Connor Chronicles." I'll be weighing in on Terminator Salvation's attempt to live up to its iconic catchphrase "I'll be back" later this week, so surf back later in a few days.

'Angels & Demons' to usurp top spot from celestial 'Star Trek'?

By Sarah Sluis

Joining the fray of big releases, Angels & Demons opens this weekend (3,527 theatres), its main competition holdovers Star Trek, in its second week of release, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I saw the film this Wednesday and while I'll go along with the opinion that the follow-up is better than The Da Vinci Code, better is a relative term. I think The New York Times' A.O. Scott puts it best, saying director Ron Howard "combines the visual charm of mass-produced postcards with the mental stimulation of an easy Monday crossword puzzle." The intrigue seems paper-thin, and the ciphers are either incredibly easy to decode or require leaps of faith to pursue. Mr. Hanks, for example, simply looks at where statues are pointing and follows their direction, managing to find precision in casual hand gestures. The movie does have a nice twist towards the end, but for the first two-thirds you're actually watching a serial killer movie. Imagine Seven, but set in Rome, and you have the right idea. The Catholic Church, after objecting to the first film, seems to have deemed the second innocuous. Angels & Demons isn't expected to do the big business of Wolverine or Star Trek in its opening weekend, but say a prayer that it will cross $50 million in its opening weekend.

Most of the post-opening weekend Star Trek buzz has centered on one anecdote. Over the past week, I've heard from friends, family, and even eavesdropping, the same comment: "So-and-so [a female who would not be expected to like a sci-fi movie, especially one with such a strong geek following] really liked it." People seem to be interested in the fact that its appeal extends to the anti-fan, which is exactly the kind of word-of-mouth that will sustain a film beyond opening weekend. It's been killing it this week, earning five times as much as Wolverine each day and currently at $99 million.

The specialty market this weekend is packed, once again, though the less-crowded market at Cannes indicates that there will be fewer specialty films in the pipeline. With so many great indie films out there, and only a limited amount of time to see them, many are viewing the slowdown as a good thing. Summit's sneaking its oft-delayed The Brothers Bloom, which stars Adrien Brody and Rachel Weisz, into four theatres, with plans to expand the film over the next two weekends. Big Man Japan, a "goofy sci-fi satire aimed at a narrow audience," will release in NY and LA. Romantic comedy Management, which stars Jennifer Aniston as a corporate executive and Steve Zahn as the motel owner she trysts with, opens in 212 theatres. Jerichow, which our reviewer described as a "modern-day, Teutonic Postman Always Rings Twice," also opens in NY and LA, along with IFC's Summer Hours, a story about three children dividing up their mother's belongings after her death.

Angels & Demons should win the box office, though Star Trek 's spectacular weekday performance could make it a tight race. Wolverine should grab the third spot. From the specialty front, The Brothers Bloom will be looking for a strong per-screen average to set up the caper comedy for its expansion. All the wide releases will want to rack up grosses before next week, Memorial Day, which will see ticket sales siphon away towards R-Rated Terminator Salvation and PG-rated Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian.

'Wolverine,' meet 'Star Trek'

By Sarah Sluis

Everyone seems to like Star Trek. Many people will see it this weekend. But how will it all add up at the box office? Currently running a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, the time-traveling origin story juxtaposes car chases in vintage roadsters in Iowa with galactic attempts to wrench ships out of black holes ("More warp!" There is no more warp! More warp!!!"). It's great fun, and includes J.J. Abrams' signature time-bending, a space vocabulary that heavily references Star Wars (When will they put up safety rails next to deep abysses in spaceships?), and a plotline accessible to those who have never even heard of the Enterprise fan club. In other words, Trek has all the makings of a summer popcorn movie.

Currently, the film's tracking way up, as the marketing blitz continues to raise awareness of the film. There are conflicting reports about whether Star Trek or Wolverine has better female support, which surprised me, given that for me it was pretty clear-cut. My interest in Wolverine hovered around zero, while I was enticed from day one by the Star Trek trailer that included the aforementioned Iowa car chase scene and promised me there wouldn't be hard-to-decipher techno-conversations on the flight deck.

Last week, headlines for Wolverine gave the film a range of $60-$100 million, and it came in at $75 million. This week, estimates for Trek seem to be in the $65-$100 million range, but the studio's low-balling, saying they would be happy with $50 million. In Trek's favor are 7pm screenings tonight which should jump-start its grosses, as well as data from Movietickets.com that shows that sellouts have already exceeded those of Wolverine. The space actioner will also be showing up on bigger IMAX screens, which carry a ticket premium and could push grosses higher.

Internationally, the film will open everywhere but Japan and Mexico, where the swine flu has made public gatherings impossible. Based on previous performances in the franchises, X-Men's Wolverine claws are supposed to read better than the Spock/Kirk interactions of Star Trek, but since the reboot is all about drawing in new, younger viewers, there's a chance the film can create new audiences. The fact that Trek avoids using its plot as a Cold War parable will undoubtedly make the film more universally appealing.

Among, say, your typical young male fan who missed Wolverine last week because of a soccer game, there will definitely be competition for the box-office dollar, and last week's $75 million open still leaves many viewers choosing between the two films, or opting to take a week off from moviegoing. From my standpoint, that hard-to-quantify buzz has always been higher for Star Trek, but, then again, I'm not hanging out in middle and high school hallways.

'Taken' scores on Super Bowl weekend box office

By Sarah Sluis

As I mentioned on Friday, studios have avoided releasing male-oriented films on Super Bowl Weekend,

wary of the inevitable spike downward on Sunday, when people everywhere huddle around the television to eat guacamole and chicken wings, and/or watch the game. Fox chanced that kidnapping thriller Taken would be able to grab enough viewers Friday and Saturday to make up for a precipitous drop on Sunday. They were right. Taken dropped 69% on Sunday, but still managed to make $24.6 million and finish the weekend at number one.

To put the numbers in perspective, most films drop 25-40% on Sunday (a number in the mid-30's is about average). What Fox must have noticed, though, is that even non-male oriented titles drop on Super Bowl Sunday. New in Town, for example, a female-skewing romantic comedy, dropped 61% on Sunday--only eight percent less than Taken. Clearly, the Super Bowl is not the provenance of males alone, but inspires households to watch together, male and female alike.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop, like Taken, exceeded the studio's box office expectations. The surprise success continued to rally above-average audiences. The film came in at number two again, earning $14 million. Its three-week total of $83 million assures that it will cross the $100 million mark in a few more weeks.

Horror flick The Uninvited debuted at number three to $10.5 million, exceeding the results of fellow wide release opener New in Town, a romantic comedy that posed a challenge to marketers over at Lionsgate, and received a mention in a recent New Yorker article on film marketing. Making a slim $6.7 million, it apparently came in according to the studio's (low) expectations.

Oscar shut-out Gran Torino has received a different kind of award: box-office success. The film has already passed the $100 million mark, and pulled in another $8.6 million this week. Eastwood was honored with the Irving G. Thalberg award fourteen years ago--and, like many of those honored, has continued an outpouring of solid, high-quality work.

Slumdog Millionaire, still buzzing twelve weeks after it opened, expanded its release yet again, earning $7.6 million and bringing its cumulative to $67.2 million. Director Danny Boyle won the DGA award this weekend. The award almost always results in a win for Best Director at the Oscars, so Slumdog, while garnering far fewer nominations than Ben Button, has a stronger chance of winning its categories.

Next week brings deliciously creepy stop-motion Coraline, romcom He's Just Not That Into You, Pink Panther 2, and Push. Summit's Push stars Dakota Fanning, meaning the young actress, who also voices the titular role in Coraline, will have two films debut the same week.

Full studio estimates here.