Golden Globes share the love, but 'Argo' and 'Les Miserables' win top honors

This year at the Golden Globes, no one film swept the awards. In a year of so many good films, it was great to see multiple works be recognized. Unlike the Oscars, the Globes name best pictures in two categories. Les Misérables grabbed Best Comedy/Musical, in a field that also saw Silver Linings Playbook as a strong contender. Argo, surprisingly, won Best Drama. Zero Dark Thirty
and Lincoln were also in the drama category, and both seemed more likely to win. Lincoln is still considered the big favorite for the Oscars, and an appearance by former president Bill Clinton to introduce the film may give the feature the extra push to win come Oscar-time. Especially when its competitor, Zero Dark Thirty, appears to have drawn mainly criticism from elected officials. Argo will also be at a disadvantage when it comes to the Oscars. Although Ben Affleck won Best Director at the Globes, he didn't even get nominated in the category at the Oscars. Best Director and Best Film nearly always track together. But if there's any year where this rule will be thrown out the window, it's this year.

The Golden Globes' double awards based on genre show that there are still some Oscar races that are up in the air. Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress in a comedy/musical for Silver Linings
Playbook, while Jessica Chastain grabbed the honors for Best Actress in a drama. They both gave great speeches, too. This category will be a tough one to choose between, but if it's about recognizing both an actress and a a great film, my vote is for Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. Anne Hathaway's win for Best Supporting Actress in Les Misérables only confirms she's a lock for the category.

Hugh Jackman was recognized for his work as Best Actor in a comedy/musical for  Les Misérables, but it's pretty clear that Daniel Day-Lewis, the winner in the Best Actor for a drama category for Lincoln, is the favorite for the Oscars. Christoph Waltz carried home the statue for Best Supporting Actor in Django Unchained (the fact that it's a "supporting" role is likely some Weinstein finessing). Django also won in the Best Screenplay
category. Quentin Tarantino, who also directed the picture, called the award a huge "surprise." Django is a bit more edgy than the Academy usually goes for, though they did give the violent-comic Western five nominations. I think Waltz is a more likely win than Tarantino when it comes to the Oscars. There, Tarantino will compete in the Original Screenplay category, which also includes Amour, Zero Dark Thirty, Flight, and Moonrise Kingdom.

Zero Dark Thirty has long been the horse I've been betting on, but at this point it may be just my favorite horse. It won only one of its four categories, Best Actress for Chastain, though the performer took time in her speech to personally thank director Kathryn Bigelow for the strong female character who leads the charge in the procedural thriller. When it comes to the box office, though, ZDT looks like it will be enjoying the same level of success as Argo. The "other drama about the CIA" this year opened to just under $20 million and has earned five-and-a-half times its opening weekend to date. Zero Dark Thirty finally expanded after weeks in specialty release and opened to $24 million. If it follows the trajectory of Argo, it could also be looking at a total north of $100 million.

This is a year not only of incredibly strong films, but incredibly successful ones at the box office too. Five honorees had spots in the top ten this week. Django Unchained placed fourth with $11 million, but had a 44% drop, larger than any of its previous weeks. That may be because of two new offerings, Gangster Squad and A Haunted House, that cut into its audience. Gangster Squad drew many under 35s, likely fans of Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, to open to $16.7 million. One spot higher, the horror spoof A Haunted House debuted to $18.8 million. Blacks made up half the audience, and Latinos another 30%. Since Django had been playing well to black audiences, it likely lost viewers to that release.

In fifth place, Les Misérables dropped 36% to stay in the seven figures another week, finishing with $10.1 million. Lincoln, in seventh place, added 16% to earn $6.3 million. Silver Linings Playbook also had a bump of 38% to $5 million, likely thanks to the Golden Globes. The only big winner not in the top ten was Argo. In nineteenth place, it went up 57% to $1.2 million, not so bad for a movie now in theatres for three and a half months.

This Friday, the Golden Globe-honored films should continue to see strong business. Silver Linings Playbook will ride on its win to expand wide. Best Actress winner Jessica Chastain will appear in the thriller Mama, and Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe will star in the crime picture Broken City. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a presenter at last night's awards, will star in The Last Stand. As for the Oscars? They're just forty days away.

'Zero Dark Thirty' could take down 'Gangster Squad'

Since its release three weeks ago, Zero Dark Thirty has earned $5.2 million selling out the small number of theatres showing the well-reviewed feature. This weekend, the CIA procedural thriller will explode into 2,937 theatres. The buzz for this picture could not be higher. It's been the subject of many think pieces on torture, and just last night a panel convened to talk about the movie
on the PBS News Hour--and all this before it has even played to a wide audience. Adult audiences already know this is a quality film and a must-see. Especially with boomers dominating the box office, this may be enough. But Zero Dark Thirty also has the potential to draw in patriotic and military audiences, as well as fans of action thrillers--even though suspense, not gunfights, predominate. Per-screen averages for ZDT started at $80,000, went to $60,000, and
then $40,000 per screen. That's a pretty admirable hold for a film that
released in just five theatres its first two weeks, then 60 locations
last week. If the per-screen average dropped by half, to $20,000 per screen, the
movie would end up with $58 million. No one expects that will happen, but given how strongly the movie is playing, predictions around the $25-30 million
range are more than doable.

Until recently, most expected Gangster Squad (3,103 theatres) would lead this weekend, and with an estimated debut north of $20 million, it still could. Where ZDT is subtle and nuanced,
Gangster Squad is broad and features the splatters of gunfire people may be expecting--and not get--from Zero Dark Thirty. The movie is a heightened, unrealistic look at Los Angeles in the late '40s, "based on a true story" in a very loose way. The kind of movie where every other line out of an actor's mouth is a zinger. That may turn some viewers (including myself) off, but others may like the mindless diverson, which is kind of like an exaggerated parody of L.A. Confidential, but played straight. The "campy sheen should broaden its appeal," predicts FJI critic Chris Barsanti. Director Ruben Fleischer "blasts through to the finish, trusting in
speed, a solid cast, and the smartly polished period design to make
all the implausibilities and plot loopholes whip past agreeably
enough."

Also in the mix this weekend is a comedy from the Wayans Brothers, A Haunted House (2,160
theatres).  The spoof of Paranormal Activity centers on a man who tries to exorcise a demon from his girlfriend. A $10-15 million weekend would be good news for this low-budget feature.

Quartet (2 theatres), "far more delicate than The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," offers an "endearing treatise on aging and music," according to FJI's David Noh. If even a fraction of the Marigold Hotel audience shows up, this movie will likely be a success. Plus it stars Maggie Smith, of current "Downton Abbey" fame, playing "one of those
difficult, doughty, dragon-lady dowagers" that appears to be her new acting sweet spot.

On Monday, we'll see how Zero Dark Thirty performed when let out of the specialty cage and given a nationwide release, or if Gangster Squad proved more alluring than the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

 

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Oscar nominations reveal competing visions of America

What makes a film the "Best Picture" of the year? When it comes to the Oscars, it's not enough to be the most cinematically innovative or critical favorite. The movies also must be the kind those in the industry and out can look at and say, "Now this is why Hollywood movies matter." It's a rather inclusive test, but nevertheless one many films do not pass. This morning's Oscar nominations have a fair number of surprises and snubs, in a year that includes a number of incredibly strong films. They also offer competing visions of  America and Americans--even when the subject matter is foreigners. Go figure.

Lincoln led the nominations with twelve notices, including Best Director for Steven Spielberg and Best Picture. It's considered the favorite for Best Picture, but it's also the most "safe" movie. Lincoln is about showing an America everyone can be proud of. Lincoln is one of our finest presidents, and
attempts by the script to humanize him only show how much he accomplished in the face of adversity and weariness. Even nearly 150 years after the Civil War, the movie's message is progressive. All men are created equal--under the eyes of the law, Thaddeus Stevens finally concedes. Even today, that vision is still short of reality.

Beasts of the Southern Wild shows us inequality, but then offers us a hopeful vision in spite of adversity. If you can look through the strained father-daughter relationship, the misguided efforts of rescue workers, and some heavy drinking, you can see that Beasts also offers a vision of America to be proud of. The world outside the movie's Louisiana Bathtub may be harsh and cruel to those inside, but the residents exemplify the characteristics we Americans hold so dear. Self-reliance, independence, vibrant
culture, and strength in the face of adversity. Academy voters gave the film three important nominations: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actress for Quvenzhané Wallis, is the youngest nominee in history Along with Amour, Beasts "took" a Best Director spot away from previous winners Tom Hooper and Kathryn Bigelow, who were considered strong candidates for the nomination. Lincoln will always be a bit on a pedestal, but Beasts takes that pedestal, chops it up, and uses it to keep out hurricane winds.

Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are both about intelligence operations abroad, but they couldn't be more different. Argo champions playful ingenuity. The glitz and glamour of a Hollywood shoot just serve as a smokescreen to get trapped Americans out of Iran during the hostage crisis. There's great style, music, and a cowboy attitude prevails. The movie inspired vocal reactions among those
watching in theatres, and it's hard not to leave without a gushing pride that America was clever and renegade enough to pull this off. This is a story of unequivocal pride, in the manner of Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty is the equivalent of Beasts. It shows that terrorism begets torture. The CIA is ruthlessly efficient and technologically advanced. The battle against bin Laden is won, but this movie lets us know just how high the costs were. This wasn't just about personal sacrifice, but a sacrifice our nation made in the quest of vengeance. That's a message that hasn't sat well with everyone. After doing extremely well among critics' groups, the movie has picked up some
heat from politicians denouncing the movie.

"It’s
impossible to leave this movie untroubled by the contemporary
parallels...[to author Victor] Hugo’s progressive political and moral concerns," noted Wendy R. Weinstein in her review of Les Misérables. Sure, maybe the movie would have been a hit nevertheless, but two of the other most successful musicals in recent years (Chicago and Dreamgirls) tackled big questions about fame and the American experience. As the country lifts from recession and questions topics like the incarceration of people of color who have committed minor drug offenses, for example, it recalls Jean Valjeans's life-ending punishment for stealing a loaf of bread. Like Lincoln, Les Misérables shows us that the search for justice and equality can be a never-ending process.

Which story will triumph when the statuettes are doled out? The film that wins Best Director nearly always wins Best Picture. This year, three frontrunners aren't even nominated: Les Misérables, Argo, and especially Zero Dark Thirty. Does this mean that Lincoln will win? In a year of films that spoke to the American experience, this one is the sturdiest and most uncontroversial. But the nominees that stand beside it share ultimately triumphant views of what it means to be an American, a human in society. When victories come, they are always qualified, and always at some cost. This isn't a year of fairy tales, but it does have the strongest slate of nominees in recent memory, one where multiple films can be heralded as examples of why movies matter.

'Texas Chainsaw 3D' slashes 'Django Unchained'

Along with New Year's Resolutions, there's one thing you can always count on in January: a horror movie. This year's Texas Chainsaw 3D played just as well as the previous franchise installment, earning $23.2 million and a spot in first place. That's not quite as good as Lionsgate's horror offering last year, the religious-themed chller The Devil Inside that opened to $33 million. The
release also proved there's a new star on the rise. A third of the younger attendees came because of cast member Trey Songz, a hip-hop star known for his song with T.I., "Two Reasons." 52% of attendees were female and 64% under the age of 25.

In second place, Django Unchained showed stronger staying power than Les Miserables, earning $20.1 million to the musical's $16.1 million. Django has attracted a broad cross-section of viewers. This is the rare film that has huge support from both black and white audiences, and seekers of critically-acclaimed movies and a violent gore-fest. Soon, the movie's cumulative total will pass that of writer/director Quentin Tarantino's previous hit, Inglourious Basterds, which topped out at $120 million.

Matt Damon-led Promised Land, which expanded into 1,676 theatres averaged a respectable $2,5000 per screen for a total of $4.3 million. Considering its so-so critical reception, this message film's performance was right on target, even though it may seem low for a drama led by such a big star.

The Impossible showed strength as it expanded into 572 theatres and tallied up a total of $2.7
million with a $4,800 per-screen average. The nostalgic look at the 1960s from "The Sopranos" creator David Chase,  Not Fade Away, which also expanded into around 500 theatres, appears to be fading away, averaging $496 per screen for a total of $280,000. With generally good reviews (69% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), perhaps this failure was the result of poor marketing or a lack of faith in the film on part of the studio.

Zero Dark Thirty, expanding into 60 theatres, maintained a stunning $45,000 per-screen average, enough to earn it $2.7 million. That's just unheard of, especially after three weeks in release. This Friday, it expands into 2,5000 theatres, and I'll be watching to see just how much pent-up demand there is for this much-talked-about drama.

This Friday, the 40's-set crime movie Gangster Squad will open wide along with the horror comedy A Haunted House and the wide release of Zero Dark Thirty.

'Texas Chainsaw 3D' revs into box office against strong holiday releases

There hasn't been a wide horror release since Halloween, and now that the holiday movie season is over, Texas Chainsaw 3D (2,654 theatres) will try to quench any pent-up demand for a good scare-fest. There have been two recent Texas Chainsaw movies, one in 2003 that earned $80 million, and another in 2006 that earned considerably less, $40 million. Still, horror flicks tend to
open high, and there's a good chance that Texas Chainsaw 3D could land at the top of the pack if it opens around $20 million.

A few other movies are expanding their theatrical imprint now that must-see releases like Django Unchained and Les Miserables have had some time to run through viewers. Repeat moviegoers may come back for another holiday offering, like The Impossible, which is expanding into 572 theatres. Yes, the tale of a tsunami tearing a family apart is heart-wrenching, but it appears that any initial reluctance to watch a weepie is being quelled by good word-of-mouth. The drama's per-screen average went up from $9,000 per screen to $12,000 per screen in its second weekend, an excellent sign. It's also earned an impressive $80 million abroad, including $53 million in Spain. Director Juan Antonio Bayona is from Spain, and the story is based on that of a Spanish family (though the end film features a couple from English-speaking territories), which explains the interest in that country.

Promised Land will make the biggest expansion, into 1,675 theatres. While there are some great stars, like Matt Damon, Frances McDormand, and "The Office's" John Krasinski, this movie has been a failure with critics and had a tepid debut in theatre. It will probably end up with a few million and not much else. FJI critic David Noh found the "intelligent, sincere diatribe against
venal corporate interests" "highly watchable," but I couldn't disagree more. It's uncomfortably simple, pat, and unchallenging--liberal baby food. This message drama may resonate with some, but many others will be alienated, either by virtue of their political views or the movie's reductive nature.

Not Fade Away will also be expanding into 565 theatres. Directed by David Chase, creator of "The Sopranos," the tale of New Jersey teens starting a band in the 1960s is an "engaging time capsule," according to New Jersey native and film critic Kevin Lally, and "serves as a vivid reminder of how thoroughly the ’60s shook up the
culture." Unlike The Impossible, this movie has already expanded once, from three to nineteen theatres, and saw its per-screen average drop by two-thirds. But there's still hope for this coming-of-age tale yet, and a thoughtful expansion (with more New Jersey theatres than normal) may be the trick.

Viewers in New York City can catch 56 UP, the once-every-seven-years series following a group of British children, now 56. "What's striking is how many of the children express displeasure
with the series," critic Daniel Eagan observes, their lives shaped in certain respects by how people view them through the lens of the documentary.

On Monday, we'll see if Texas Chainsaw 3D sawed through the competition and which holiday releases are still playing strong.

 

 

PGA's popcorn movie pick is 'Skyfall'

The Producers Guild of America announced its ten nominees for Best Picture, and it's a very inclusive list. Both of the indie darlings, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild, were among the nominees. The much-accoladed Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty (of course) made the list, and Life of Pi slipped in, probably because of its literary pedigree and great cinematography. Also in the mix is Django Unchained, the violent,
challenging film that is a little bit like this year's version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Finally, the PGA recognized Skyfall. This year there have been a couple other great popcorn movies: The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers. But in the end, it was the one that released latest in the year--and was freshest in voters' minds--that garnered a nomination. Of all the popcorn movies, this is the one that appealed most to adults, including older males, that likely represent a sizeable amount of the PGA's members.

The PGA awards are best known for being extremely accurate predictors of the Oscar Best Picture winner. This year there is a deep selection of great movies, and there's no clear frontrunner. The latest word in the blogosphere is that Lincoln has a lead, but I sincerely hope another of the ones on my top movie list, such as Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings, Argo, or Les Misérables gets recognized instead. While Zero Dark Thirty and Les Misérables are my two favorites from this year, I think Les Misérables will eventually encounter some blowback from the singing choice. Many trained musicians have commented on social networks that the vocals make them cringe--especially those from, no surprise, Russell Crowe playing Javert. However, even its detractors acknowledge it's still a must-see, but I wonder if that may affect the Academy's voters. Will the musicians in the bunch be happy to recognize a film that relies heavily on music, or will they not be able to get past how the actors sound to a trained ear? With just under two months before the Oscar ceremony, this year's race is one of the most exciting in recent years. 

 

Pixar targets Hispanics with movie about Día de los Muertos

Today, I read two articles and couldn't help but feel they should actually be side by side. The first, THR's "Box Office 2012: 5 Hard Lessons" lists number four as "Boomers & Hispanics: The New Sweet Spot," pointing to the success of films like the Hispanic-targeted End of Watch and "Latino-centered Ice Age." Hispanics are not only a growing demographic in the U.S., they watched 25% of movies while only representing 17% of the population.. So perhaps it's no surprise that the latest Pixar movie to be added to the slate is the "Untitled Pixar Movie About the Día de los Muertos," which will be directed by Lee Unkrich, the director and co-writer of Toy Story 3 and co-director of Finding Nemo. The movie was announced back in April, but the first peek at the concept art just hit the Internet.

I'm a little curious about how Pixar will approach the project and the marketing. The holiday itself, which is most associated with Mexico, at least here in the U.S, is celebrated around the world and particularly throughout Latin America. It involves hanging out at the graves of relatives, giving them food and celebrating their memory, and lots of skulls, including very delicious candy ones. To an American audience, the idea of associating graveyards with celebrations is a bit odd. I think 95% of all graveyards in movies either involve people weeping next to a casket or tombstone, being chased by zombies, or having a séance. If this is a Hispanic-targeted movie, it may be a snap to target Mexican-Americans, but it may be a marketing challenge in another respect: the parents. Open-minded kids won't be a problem, but parents may need a refresher on the ins and outs of the holiday. Día de los Muertos is generally celebrated after Halloween, on November 2 (though sometimes the 1st), so the film is likely to release in October of 2015. That's proved to be a profitable spot for animated movies, like this year's comedy Hotel Transylvania. And it may make any spookiness an easy sell.