Another Academy Awards predictor joins the fray, 'Social Oscars'

The second site to try to "Nate Silver"
the Oscars is Social
Oscars. Back in mid-January, Screener reported on Farsite Forecast, which doles out each
nominee's percentage chance at winning the Oscars. Social Oscars, which social
media monitoring company Brandwatch created, takes a different route. The
company's interactive infographic compares which movies the critics think will
win to the ones that the public thinks will win. Surprisingly, the critics and
public are pretty much in agreement for most of the categories. There's rarely
more than a couple percentage points in

differences between the two, which may
not be even statistically significant since they don't mention the sample size.
However, some of their findings do back up the anecdotal feelings about races
in various categories.

In the Best Picture race, for example, more
critics (12%) are excited about Zero Dark Thirty than members of the
public (7%). Life of Pi's sentimentality played better with the public
(12%) than critics (9%). Argo has recently become the frontrunner for
Best Picture, unseating the early momentum of Zero Dark Thirty and the
solid, blue-chip choice of Steven Spielberg's Lincoln. If Argo
wins, the Social Oscars will have correctly picked the winner, since 23% of the
public and 19% of critics have voted this as their favorite.

The Social Oscars is a fun tool, but it overlooks
one big fact. Who wins the Oscars usually has only a loose correlation with the
popular and critical choices. For every winner like The King's Speech,
which was the 2010 victor and supported by both critics and audiences,
there's a movie that critics were rooting for but the public did not see in
theatres in big numbers (that describes 2011 winner The Artist or 2009
winner The Hurt Locker), or a popular favorite that's just good enough
or has some kind of special hook that convinces the Academy that it deserves
recognition (Gladiator, Titanic, Forrest Gump). The Oscars can
sometimes be an exercise in game theory (see 2001 Best Picture winner A
Beautiful Mind for a brush-up on that). Many critics distinguish between
the movies they like best and the movie that they think they will win,
sometimes developing subcategories like a movie they campaign for and want to
win, even while acknowledging another movie probably has a better shot. A
regular Joe may count nominee Django Unchained as the most enjoyable
picture of the year but feel that Argo is the better choice for a Best
Picture winner. The Social Oscars' infographic is an interesting tool to gauge
the relative popularity of the Best Picture choices, for example, but critical
and popular reaction are just one piece of the pie when it comes to the Oscars.

Oscar nominations reveal competing visions of America

What makes a film the "Best Picture" of the year? When it comes to the Oscars, it's not enough to be the most cinematically innovative or critical favorite. The movies also must be the kind those in the industry and out can look at and say, "Now this is why Hollywood movies matter." It's a rather inclusive test, but nevertheless one many films do not pass. This morning's Oscar nominations have a fair number of surprises and snubs, in a year that includes a number of incredibly strong films. They also offer competing visions of  America and Americans--even when the subject matter is foreigners. Go figure.

Lincoln led the nominations with twelve notices, including Best Director for Steven Spielberg and Best Picture. It's considered the favorite for Best Picture, but it's also the most "safe" movie. Lincoln is about showing an America everyone can be proud of. Lincoln is one of our finest presidents, and
attempts by the script to humanize him only show how much he accomplished in the face of adversity and weariness. Even nearly 150 years after the Civil War, the movie's message is progressive. All men are created equal--under the eyes of the law, Thaddeus Stevens finally concedes. Even today, that vision is still short of reality.

Beasts of the Southern Wild shows us inequality, but then offers us a hopeful vision in spite of adversity. If you can look through the strained father-daughter relationship, the misguided efforts of rescue workers, and some heavy drinking, you can see that Beasts also offers a vision of America to be proud of. The world outside the movie's Louisiana Bathtub may be harsh and cruel to those inside, but the residents exemplify the characteristics we Americans hold so dear. Self-reliance, independence, vibrant
culture, and strength in the face of adversity. Academy voters gave the film three important nominations: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actress for Quvenzhané Wallis, is the youngest nominee in history Along with Amour, Beasts "took" a Best Director spot away from previous winners Tom Hooper and Kathryn Bigelow, who were considered strong candidates for the nomination. Lincoln will always be a bit on a pedestal, but Beasts takes that pedestal, chops it up, and uses it to keep out hurricane winds.

Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are both about intelligence operations abroad, but they couldn't be more different. Argo champions playful ingenuity. The glitz and glamour of a Hollywood shoot just serve as a smokescreen to get trapped Americans out of Iran during the hostage crisis. There's great style, music, and a cowboy attitude prevails. The movie inspired vocal reactions among those
watching in theatres, and it's hard not to leave without a gushing pride that America was clever and renegade enough to pull this off. This is a story of unequivocal pride, in the manner of Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty is the equivalent of Beasts. It shows that terrorism begets torture. The CIA is ruthlessly efficient and technologically advanced. The battle against bin Laden is won, but this movie lets us know just how high the costs were. This wasn't just about personal sacrifice, but a sacrifice our nation made in the quest of vengeance. That's a message that hasn't sat well with everyone. After doing extremely well among critics' groups, the movie has picked up some
heat from politicians denouncing the movie.

"It’s
impossible to leave this movie untroubled by the contemporary
parallels...[to author Victor] Hugo’s progressive political and moral concerns," noted Wendy R. Weinstein in her review of Les Misérables. Sure, maybe the movie would have been a hit nevertheless, but two of the other most successful musicals in recent years (Chicago and Dreamgirls) tackled big questions about fame and the American experience. As the country lifts from recession and questions topics like the incarceration of people of color who have committed minor drug offenses, for example, it recalls Jean Valjeans's life-ending punishment for stealing a loaf of bread. Like Lincoln, Les Misérables shows us that the search for justice and equality can be a never-ending process.

Which story will triumph when the statuettes are doled out? The film that wins Best Director nearly always wins Best Picture. This year, three frontrunners aren't even nominated: Les Misérables, Argo, and especially Zero Dark Thirty. Does this mean that Lincoln will win? In a year of films that spoke to the American experience, this one is the sturdiest and most uncontroversial. But the nominees that stand beside it share ultimately triumphant views of what it means to be an American, a human in society. When victories come, they are always qualified, and always at some cost. This isn't a year of fairy tales, but it does have the strongest slate of nominees in recent memory, one where multiple films can be heralded as examples of why movies matter.

PGA's popcorn movie pick is 'Skyfall'

The Producers Guild of America announced its ten nominees for Best Picture, and it's a very inclusive list. Both of the indie darlings, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild, were among the nominees. The much-accoladed Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty (of course) made the list, and Life of Pi slipped in, probably because of its literary pedigree and great cinematography. Also in the mix is Django Unchained, the violent,
challenging film that is a little bit like this year's version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Finally, the PGA recognized Skyfall. This year there have been a couple other great popcorn movies: The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers. But in the end, it was the one that released latest in the year--and was freshest in voters' minds--that garnered a nomination. Of all the popcorn movies, this is the one that appealed most to adults, including older males, that likely represent a sizeable amount of the PGA's members.

The PGA awards are best known for being extremely accurate predictors of the Oscar Best Picture winner. This year there is a deep selection of great movies, and there's no clear frontrunner. The latest word in the blogosphere is that Lincoln has a lead, but I sincerely hope another of the ones on my top movie list, such as Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings, Argo, or Les Misérables gets recognized instead. While Zero Dark Thirty and Les Misérables are my two favorites from this year, I think Les Misérables will eventually encounter some blowback from the singing choice. Many trained musicians have commented on social networks that the vocals make them cringe--especially those from, no surprise, Russell Crowe playing Javert. However, even its detractors acknowledge it's still a must-see, but I wonder if that may affect the Academy's voters. Will the musicians in the bunch be happy to recognize a film that relies heavily on music, or will they not be able to get past how the actors sound to a trained ear? With just under two months before the Oscar ceremony, this year's race is one of the most exciting in recent years. 

 

'Lincoln,' 'Silver Linings,' and 'Les Miz' lead SAG award nods

Zero Dark Thirty may have won top honors from the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Online, and a number of critics organizations in smaller cities (Boston, Washington D.C.), but it emerged from the Screen Actors Guild Awards competition with just one nomination. Jessica Chastain was nominated for Female Actor in a Lead Role, for a part some think
has Oscar-winner written all over it. It's a bit surprising that Zero Dark Thirty didn't get a nod in the Best Ensemble department, especially since it has so many well-known (and up-and-coming) actors in supporting roles, including James Gandolfini, Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler (Super 8), Jennifer Ehle,  mumblecore vet Mark Duplass, and Chris Pratt ("Parks & Recreation"). However, they did have comparatively small, forgettable roles compared to Chastain's, and to the supporting roles in the other nominated films. Argo highlights the talent not only of Ben Affleck, but also has some meaty, comedic roles for John Goodman and Alan Arkin. Silver Linings Playbook generated buzz for three of its stars, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, and Bradley Cooper. Lincoln, Les Miserables, and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, the same deal.

Does this change the lineup for the Oscars? In short, no. Besides Zero Dark Thirty, a couple of other movies are still strongly in the running. Les Miserables is getting points for being a musical done right. Lincoln is the one appealing to the older, staid voters in the Academy, while Silver Linings Playbook has energized many critics and has a more youthful feel. Then there's Argo, which had some great early momentum but is losing out to movies that are just ramping up their buzz as they move into release. Marigold Hotel got a vote for Best Ensemble in part because of SAG's older and U.K. voters, and it does have a deeper cast than Zero Dark Thirty. However, that movie only has an outside chance of being recognized at the biggest awards ceremony, and most likely will receive a few nominations, max. The winners of the SAG Awards won't be announced until January 27, one month before the Oscars.

'Breaking Dawn--Part 2' leads sluggish post-Thanksgiving weekend

The post-Thanksgiving weekend was pretty uneventful. No release crossed the $20 million mark. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn--Part 2 came the closest, falling another 60% to settle at $17.4 million. However, the top fourteen movies all earned over $1 million, a sign there are lots of quality movies in the marketplace, including some specialty releases that are gearing up.

Both new releases flopped. Killing Them Softly debuted to $7 million, under the $10 million figure many predicted. It also failed with audiences, who gave the movie a rare "F" rating in exit
polls. It's an especially a harsh blow for Brad Pitt, who both starred in the movie and produced through his Plan B productions. At least he has Angelina Jolie to go home to. The other new release, the hard-core horror movie The Collection, also had a soft opening, but at least this one was in line with expectations. The sequel (to a film few had heard of, The Collector) earned $3.4 million, squeaking into the last spot in the top ten.

Skyfall did drop by half, but that was enough for the James Bond movie to earn second place and $17 million, barely losing to Twilight. Steven Spielberg-directed Lincoln continued to hold strong, going down 47% to $13.5 million.

The Bollywood feature Talaash debuted to $1.9 million despite playing in just 172 locations.
That's $700,000 higher than the opening two weeks ago of another Bollywood movie, Jab Tak Hai Jaan. It looks like there is money to be made from the Indian diaspora right here in America.

In eleventh place, Silver Linings Playbook outshone its competitors by dipping just 23% for a total of $3.3 million. Right behind the Weinstein Co. release was Focus Features' Anna Karenina, which went up 148% to $2.2 million in an expansion to 384 theatres.

This Friday, the romantic comedy Playing For Keeps will attempt to charm audiences. Bill Murray plays FDR in Hyde Park on Hudson, and Weinstein Co. rolls the dice with the release of gambling picture Lay the Favorite.

 

'Killing Them Softly' and 'The Collection' add R-rated movies to holiday mix

If you missed any of the great releases in the past few weeks, now is the time to catch up. For the past decade, movie studios have avoided releasing any film they want to open big the weekend after Thanksgiving. The two movies opening today, both with R ratings, appeal to niche and frequent moviegoers. The Collection will satisfy horror fans while Killing Them Softly will play to adult connoisseurs of mobster and gunplay movies. Neither of these movies should inch up far past the $10 million mark, if they even get that far. The Collection, in particular, may only tally up a few million.

The lead spot this weekend will likely go to The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. Even with free-fall drops, the supernatural romance started off high enough that it could end up with just under $20 million three weeks after its blockbuster $141 million opening. In the follow-up weekend after Thanksgiving, that may be enough to boast a number-one finish. The rest of the top five should be filled with broader-playing, quality fare, including Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Skyfall, which is staying aloft thanks to great word-of-mouth. I've heard more buzz about Skyfall from friends who are infrequent moviegoers than I have for any other movie this year.

Rise of the Guardians should also play somewhere north of $10 million in its second weekend,
though it will be interesting to see how much of a lead it can maintain over its much more successful animated competitor. Wreck-It Ralph has been playing just two spots below Guardians during the weekdays despite releasing three weeks earlier. 

Killing Them Softly (2,424 theatres) should open in the bottom half of the top ten, but not because it's a bad movie. Instead, the tale of a hit man (Brad Pitt) who is hired to take down a trio who robbed a mob card game, making the entire criminal world insolvent, serves as commentary on the collapse of American banks and offers the insight "that all this bottom-feeder jockeying
for position is the funhouse mirror of American politics and
business," according to critic Maitland McDonagh. As
"black comedy as its most stygian," it may alienate some viewers, but McDonagh is giving this one her endorsement thanks to its "razor-sharp edge."

An "exercise in gratuitous sadism and gore," The Collection (1,403 theatres), a sequel to the horror movie The Collector, has enough "carnage to satisfy hardcore horror fans," according to THR's Frank Scheck. Though there are moments of "tension" and successful scenes involving tarantulas and a person forced to
break their own arm, don't check this one out unless you unequivocally say yes to all things torture porn.

The Bollywood movie Talaash will open in 172 theatres, and it could ring up some big business. Two weeks ago, the Yash Chopra-directed Jab Tak Hai Jaan, with a similarly small release, opened in the top ten with $1.2 million, and has now earned $3 million. Critic Daniel Eagan predicts the "polished and seductive" noir should "do extremely well at
the box office." The mystery covers topics seen less frequently in Indian movies, and Eagan gives it a nod for its "sympathetic but realistic view of sex workers."

On Monday, we'll see which of the Thanksgiving releases held on to their audiences, and if Killing Them Softly and The Collection were able to draw new viewers who weren't already stuffed from the holiday offerings.

'Skyfall' posts best James Bond opening ever

Skyfall handily beat its franchise predecessors to post the highest opening for a James Bond film ever. Pent-up demand from the four-year wait, along with great reviews, brought the movie to an $87.8 million weekend. That's $20 million more than Quantum of Solace, which opened in 2008
to $67 million. The crowd skewed male and older, indicating that Bond's core fanbase turned out. IMAX screens did well, contributing 15% to the weekend total. With an "A" CinemaScore rating, Skyfall will do well in coming weeks, especially because the only competition this Friday could not be more different: the final Twilight, which will draw predominantly younger females.

Flight suffered in its second weekend, droping 39% to $15.1 million. The Denzel Washington drama competed with the older males that also wanted to see Skyfall. Argo also dropped more than usual, posting a 34% dip to $6.7 million.

Lincoln opened in eleven theatres and was rewarded with the second-highest per-screen average for an opening over ten screens. The $81,800 per screen was right below the opening of Precious and above Moonlight Kingdom.  It was also enough for the Steven Spielberg-directed picture to
earn nearly a million dollars even with such a small release. The audience skewed unusually old for Hollywood, with 67% over the age of 35. Next week, Lincoln expands and the biopic may be able to coast on the momentum of the recent presidential election. Gathering support from the general populace, however, will be an uphill battle.

Among specialty releases, the foreign costume drama A Royal Affair had a strong opening, averaging $5,700 per screen in five locations. Startlet, which stars literary spawn Dree Hemingway, also performed fairly well, averaging $2,600 per screen in six locations.

This Friday, Bella and her vampire husband continue their romance in The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, the fourth and final film in the blockbuster series. Lincoln will expand into a small wide release. Awards hopefuls Anna Karenina and The Silver Linings Playbook will also make their debut in select theatres.

Bond lands in the U.S. with 'Skyfall'

When FJI critic Frank Lovece calls Skyfall (3,505 theatres) "the best Bond film since the ’60s. Period," you know it will be a success. 92% of Rotten Tomatoes critics have also given a thumbs-up to the latest installment in the franchise. The years of waiting while MGM sorted out its bankruptcy paid off, giving those involved more time to polish the script and bring the series back to what it
used to be. The twenty-third Bond film has already earned $321 million overseas, so it's virtually guaranteed that Skyfall will have similar results at home. This is a "must see" feature that draws in people who rarely attend their local theatre. Expectations are cautious, and some predict that the latest Bond may not exceed the $67 million opening of 2008's Quantum of Solace. However, even if Skyfall does not open that high--but I think it will--it's already pretty clear that Bond's capers are so compelling, word-of-mouth will make this a strong player in the weeks to come. Besides the always-compelling performances of Daniel Craig as Bond and Judi Dench as M, Javier Bardem is the best Bond villain I've ever encountered. I can't think of many other actors who can play Julia Robert's love interest in Eat Pray Love, and then turn around and be an utterly creepy villain, as he has previously done in No Country for Old Men. Maybe Bardem can pull a Heath Ledger and snag an Oscar nomination for his role as the villain.

As a counterpoint to Skyfall, Steven Spielberg-directed Lincoln begins a limited release in 11 theatres. Daniel Day-Lewis stars as the sixteenth president in what's more of a political
procedural, a "handsomely mounted civics lesson" that gives audiences a "snapshot of a turbulent point in American politics," as described by FJI critic Daniel Eagan. The historical biopic has a scene-stealing supporting character, Tommy Lee Jones as the quick-witted Thaddeus Stevens, a powerful Senate member whose belief in equality for all races is considered too extreme by most other lawmakers. Lincoln will likely open extremely high because of Spielberg's pedigree, so the real test will be next week, when the Civil War-set tale expands to 1,500 theatres and must seek approval from a more general audience.

Rounding out the specialty offerings is A Royal Affair, a Danish-language love triangle between the king, the queen, and the royal physician. Johnny Knoxville and Patton Oswalt star in Nature Calls, a "good-natured send-up of the Boy Scouts," according to THR's John DeFore. Detroit's fire epidemic is highlighted in the documentary Burn: One Year on the Front Lines of the Battle to Save Detroit, which is opening in NYC.

On Monday, we'll see just how high Skyfall soared, and if its adult competitors Argo and Flight suffered from the release of the action and martini-fueled tentpole.