David Fincher may direct lit hit 'Gone Girl'

Wait, you haven't read Gone Girl yet? The thriller by Gillian Flynn, former TV critic for Entertainment Weekly, was this summer's huge hit, a popular choice both for beach reads and book clubs. It's a genre page-turner, but a good one. It's kind of like a Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which brought in many people who don't normally pick up thrillers or mysteries. Reese Witherspoon's production company picked up rights to the book shortly after its publication, when it was at the top of the New York Times' bestseller list. Perhaps it's no surprise that the director that brought Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo to the big screen, David Fincher, is also eyeing the book as his next directing project. He's long been entangled doing an adaptation of 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea for Disney, but it appears this complicated, big-budget project may be temporarily grinding to a halt, giving him an opportunity to jump off that ship and board a new one.

Gone Girl relies on literary sleight-of-hand in order to keep its readers guessing. It starts off being told by one narrator, the husband of a woman who has disappeared under suspicious circumstances, and then switches to her point-of-view. Movies don't have the luxury of showing a point-of-view that's completely filtered through one character's actions, which will be the biggest challenge of the adaptation. Flynn has signed on to adapt her own work. With three novels under her belt and a long history as a media critic, she certainly sounds qualified for the job.

Fincher is still attached to the sequel to Dragon Tattoo, The Girl Who Played with Fire, but that movie isn't being fast-tracked into theatres. The Swedish-language trilogy was such a success that those films appear to have cannibalized the market for the English-language version. I knew a number of fans of the book who raced to see the Swedish-language versions but were burned out on the story by the time Fincher's (great, let it be known) adaptation hit screens over Christmas last year.

There's some speculation that Witherspoon will play the lead. She hasn't taken on a role like the one in Gone Girl since the 1996 movie Fear, a teen flick about a scary relationship. I'm curious if she can manage to make her sweet persona darken when necessary. One thing's for sure--if this adaptation is shepherded by the same director who did Dragon Tattoo, Seven, and Zodiac, the movie will be just as deliciously terrifying as the book.

Sundance 2013: Acquisition deals soar despite the emptying Park City

The 2013 Sundance Film Festival, which is now on its 7th day, might be quieting down as the industry crowd starts heading back to the real world that exists outside the streets of Park City, yet from a sales standpoint, the noise remains steady as this year’s festival plays host to some of the most high-profile distribution deals in its recent history. As I was making my way to The Marc on Monday morning to attend the 8:30am screening of Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight (which is officially one of this year’s hottest titles, and surprisingly STILL without a distribution home) I was catching up with the latest tweets from prominent press, most of which were talking about Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale, a tearjerker of a US Dramatic Competition title that has had three screenings in the previous two days and sold to The Weinstein Company for over $2M. My latest opportunity to catch this unforeseen hit (which instantly became the only film that mattered to press on Twitter) was later that afternoon at a Press & Industry screening, which unfortunately clashed with my plans to see Shane Carruth’s Upstream Color (his first feature since Primer in 2004), which I was enthusiastically told to definitely not miss by a friend from the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Having scored that hot ticket, I didn’t reshuffle my schedule to fit in Fruitvale, but also learned quite quickly that in Sundance, the wind might change direction at any given moment and one should be prepared for last minute change of plans.

Fruitvale was one of the first major deals that continued breaking in the news later on. I am including the distribution deals I am so far aware of at the bottom of this post, but noteworthy ones are The Way, Way Back from writer/directors Nat Faxon and Jim Rash which was sold to Fox Searchlight for almost $10M –a rather large sum for Sundance- according to a Deadline report; Jerusha Hess’ Austenland and John Krokidas’ Kill Your Darlings, both of which Sony Pictures Classics has bought; Jordan Vogt-Roberts’ Toy’s House that CBS Films closed the deal on; James Ponsoldt’s The Spectacular Now (one of my favorites of this year among the 21 movies I saw through Tuesday) which went to A24 and Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s directorial debut Don Jon’s Addiction that Relativity Media grabbed.
As important as it is to keep one’s finger on the pulse and to take every Harvey Weinstein spotting seriously (side note: I saw him leaving the Holiday Village Cinemas around 7pm on Monday), one should also trust his/her own instincts around which films to give priority to. I have already talked about the majority of what I saw during the initial days of the festival (check out both the day 1 recap and the weekend recap), so here is an account of everything I was able to catch on Monday and Tuesday, before my inevitable return trip hit earlier today.

Linklater’s Before Midnight somehow and miraculously not only lived up to my unrealistically high expectations, but also exceeded them. Eight years after the trilogy’s second installment Before Sunset, the creative collaboration of Linklater, Delpy and Hawke once again results in an extraordinary, dialogue-driven film which zooms into a couple’s intimate, frank conversations while reminding the viewers about the big world which they embrace and need to exist in. The magic of this trilogy –with its latest installment being the best of the three- is in its ability to make the viewer a fly on the wall. This kind of honesty in film, conveyed through long takes, tightly written dialogues with just enough breathing room and all-around grounded performances, is a rarity and a direct product of a visibly evolved partnership and strong trust between Linklater, Delpy and Hawke (which Linklater talked about in length during the post-screening Q&A), and I for one would like to see at least a Best Original Screenplay nomination awarded to Before Midnight in the next year’s awards season. After this festival highlight, I continued to conquer my screening schedule with Carruth’s Upstream Color, a deeply experimental and abstract work of art –or rather, artifact- on human paranoia of control, captivity and animalism (well, this is one of the million ways one can look at it) that certainly got a lot of respect from me without inspiring much desire to wrestle with its many layers. Lynn Shelton’s Touchy-Feely and Jill Soloway’s Afternoon Delight, both of which are Dramatic competition titles I saw in the second half of Monday, marked one of the highs and lows in this year’s festival for me, respectively. With Rosemarie DeWitt’s character as a massage therapist at its center, Touchy-Feely, an honest account of a family whose members dwell on the verge of potentially life-changing transitions, is a deceptively small film that finds its balance through its increasingly empowered characters, bringing Shelton’s subtle genius to life. On the other hand, Soloway’s Afternoon Delight failed to shine (at least for me) with its confusing tonal clashes, forced humor and dark twists, as well as its overtly self-important attitude toward its minor ambitions.

On my final day at Sundance, I started with two of the crowd-pleasing titles of the Dramatic Competition. Adapted from a novel by Tim Tharp, James Ponsoldt’s The Spectacular Now is a refreshing, beautifully-written film about a pair of high-school seniors, that is completely free of the disingenuous millennial snark and quirkiness that I started growing tired of in movies depicting this particular demographic. Both Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley are likely to go far in these roles (their characters are so honest that they instantly get under your skin), and the same can be said about the film’s director Ponsoldt as well as its writers Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber. Jordan Vogt-Roberts’ Toy’s House on the other hand, a hilarious comedy about a group of teens whose lives are turned into practical nightmares by the adults who surround them, provides a very different angle on a similar demographic. I personally would have preferred the comedic silliness to be tempered slightly, yet I still enjoyed this unique entry with all of its oddball characters.

The second half of the day, I fit in Sean Ellis’ World Cinema Dramatic Competition title Metro Manila, a poignant, slightly heavy-handed yet competently shot film about a family struggling to rise above the poverty line in a Philippine metropolis. And I concluded Tuesday's screenings with Greg Barker’s documentary (in US Competition) Manhunt: The Search For Osama Bin Laden (to premiere on HBO in May 2013), which made for a great way to bring Sundance to a personal end and transition back to the current film conversation which is still pre-occupied with the torture controversy around Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Through archival footage and interviews conducted with long-time CIA analysts, director Greg Barker pulls off a responsible documentary that not only shines a light on the process of a two-decade-long manhunt (which started long before 9/11), but also challenges the approach to “war on terror”, which in his and his subjects’ opinions is currently trapped in a vicious cycle with no end in sight due to the inability and unwillingness of the public to understand the underlying reasons behind terror. In attendance during the post-screening Q&A –in addition to director Barker- were three of the film’s subjects: ex-CIA Operatives Cynthia Storer, Nada Bakos and Marty Martin, who received an enthusiastic standing ovation from the crowd. In response to my question about what each of them think regarding the controversy around the other Bin Laden movie currently in theaters, the CIA trio emphasized the complexity of the process in which a lot of techniques have helped with putting the pieces of the puzzle together. Then Marty Martin jumped in with an additional comment: “I can tell you that the film’s portrayal of Jennifer Matthews was completely inaccurate. She was a very serious woman in real life”, referring to the character played by Jennifer Ehle in Bigelow’s movie.

Following a very fun karaoke party hosted by Cavu Pictures (another Sundance lesson learned: karaoke is a popular form of late-night entertainment) where several of the filmmakers, Slamdance staff and a few prominent film critics were in attendance, it was time to call it a night, and call it a Sundance for now...at least until the news of the next distribution deal broke.

2013 SUNDANCE ACQUISITIONS TO-DATE

Relativity Media

Don Jon’s Addiction (Joseph Gordon-Levitt)

Fox Searchlight

The Way, Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)

Sony Pictures
Classics

Austenland (Jerusha Hess)

Kill Your Darlings (John Krokidas)

CBS Films

Toy’s House (Jordan Vogt-Roberts)

Weinstein Company

Fruitvale (Ryan Coogler)

Radius-TWC

Concussion (Stacie Passon)

Twenty Feet From Stardom (Morgan Neville)

Lovelace (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)

Inequality For All (Jacob Kornbluth)

A24

The Spectacular Now (James Ponsoldt)

IFC Films

The Look Of Love (Michael Winterbottom)

The Summit (Nick Ryan)

Sundance Selects

Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley)

HBO Films

Pussy Riot – A Punk Prayer (Mike Lerner, Maxim Pozdorovkin)

Magnolia Pictures

Blackfish (Gabriela Cowperthwaite)

Prince Avalanche (David Gordon Green)

Showtime Networks

History of the Eagles (Alison Ellwood)

eOne Distribution

We Are What We Are (Jim Mickle)

Sundance 2013 weekend recap: Looking for the next breakthrough film

The first weekend of the 2013 Sundance Film Festival, which
usually makes up the busiest days of its entire run, has come to an end
with most of the highly anticipated titles having been screened at least once
for film lovers and industry hopefuls who are searching for the next
breakthrough film no one has seen coming. Indeed here in Sundance, it is rarely
a movie with star attachments that takes the industry by storm in the
competition categories. On the contrary, it’s usually a small film from a
newbie. If you look at the ticketing page of the festival for advice on how to
navigate your way through sold out shows, you’ll notice these words of wisdom:
“Be adventurous with last-minute film
choices! Last year’s Grand Jury Prize winner Beasts of the Southern Wild had
200 empty seats at its first screening.” While there hasn’t necessarily been a showstopper such as Beasts of the Southern Wild yet (not
including the big premieres, here), a few titles managed to stir up some debate
and get the attention of the crowd temporarily stationed in Park City. Among
these, none of them received as consistently great reactions as Randy Moore’s Escape From Tomorrow, a title I was able
to see late yesterday night as part of the festival’s NEXT section dedicated to
finding bold and innovative works. The film follows a family of four on the
last day of their trip to Disneyland, which starts with the father Jim (Roy
Abramsohn) losing his job over a phone call he receives from his boss. Hiding
the news from his wife and young children, Jim’s final day at the theme park
takes a surreal detour, turning the “happiest place on earth” into a David
Lynch-esque nightmare for the family. Shot in black and white with a crisp,
classic look that hints a taste of the French New Wave, Escape From Tomorrow is an effective and disturbing look at our
contemporary tastes and willingness to embrace the mass-produced, coating our
individualism to make each of us one of the same. Director Moore is a newcomer,
and thus, it’s a mystery to everyone -including myself- how he managed to shoot
a feature length narrative film in Disneyland completely on the sly. Yes, he
had no permits; just a dedicated cast and crew who agreed to walk around with
cameras, posing to be tourists. “We almost get caught once”, said Moore during
the post screening Q&A, also noting that their shot list was much longer
than their script, with every single move and location intricately planned and
learned on paper.  Cinetic is
representing the film for potential distribution deals; and since it’s safe to
say that Disney is soon going to file a lawsuit against the filmmaker (and he
is aware of that), it is hard to predict if a theatrical future is in the cards
for Escape From Tomorrow. One can
only hope.

Other titles I was able to fit in from the NEXT section were
Shaka King’s Newlyweeds, whose mild
humor, buried within a script as cloudy and directionless as its subjects,
failed to impress; and Chad Hartigan’s This
Is Martin Bonner, a film that effectively depicts the loneliness of its
characters with the kind of sensitivity and humanity one would expect from Mike
Leigh. It was refreshing to see this film which speaks to mature audiences.

Over at the US Dramatic Competition, many buzz-worthy titles
had their initial shots at becoming the next big prizewinner as the entire crop
has been screened at least once. I have so far seen (apart from Cherien Dabis’ May In The Summer which I already talked
about in my Day 1 recap), John Krokidas’ Kill Your Darlings,
David Lowery’s Ain’t Them Bodies
Saints, and Francesca Gregorini’s Emanuel and The Truth About Fishes (with
a few more coming up tomorrow and Tuesday); and among these, David Lowery’s
title easily stands out with its slowburning, lyrical Texan tale of love torn apart by
crime. Blending a western look with Malick-esque storytelling, Lowery’s
handle on the joyless lives of his characters (with pitch-perfect performances
by Casey Affleck, Rooney Mara and Ben Foster) impresses and bruises. It’s the
kind of movie that will attract a lot of admiration, yet perhaps not
enthusiasm. Krokidas’ Kill Your Darlings,
which tells a story of murder in the early college years of American poet Allen
Ginsberg, is stylish in bringing back a period to life, and once again features
phenomenal performances by the entire cast (including Ben Foster, once again);
yet the film goes slightly off the rails in its 3^rd act, which can
simply be salvageable through re-editing. Lastly, Francesca Gregorini’s Emanuel And The Truth About Fishes tells
a surreal, quiet story of coping, longing, letting in and letting go. Emanuel,
a sharp yet mysterious teen living with her dad and stepmother (in an initially
stagnant, yet increasingly keen performance by Kaya Scodelario) forms a bond
with the cool next door neighbor Linda (Jessica Biel) and the turn of events
brings her closer to understanding loss. Despite the gorgeous cinematography
and the interesting nuances in the film which constructs Linda’s story as the
antithesis of Emanuel’s, this title is unlikely to resonate in this category. I
am still planning on seeing Shane Carruth’s Upstream
Color, Jordan Vogt-Roberts’ Toy’s
House and Lynn Shelton’s Touchy Feely;
however based on the early reviews and instant Twitter reactions of critics
attending the festival, it is safe to say that Toy’s House has a real shot at being the winner of this category.

In the US Documentary Competition, I wouldn’t be
exaggerating if I said almost all titles here are creating the kind of buzz
that makes them look like potential winners. Documentaries have been enjoying a
fruitful theatrical run in 2012 continuing the trend of the previous few years,
and this year’s Sundance titles suggest that we can continue to expect
greatness from non-fiction storytellers. I have managed to fit in Martha Shane
and Lana Wilson’s After Tiller, and
Morgan Neville’s Twenty Feet From Stardom
(see my Day 1 recap) into my schedule so far –and it’s worth
mentioning not all titles have been screened in this category yet- but based on
what I’m so far hearing, the competition might be between these two. I am
personally a big fan of both titles, but would be especially pleased if After Tiller, a vital, inevitable
documentary for which “brave” doesn’t come close to being a sufficient
definition, wins this category. Following 4 doctors who perform late term/3^rd
trimester abortions in the US, After
Tiller gives voice to those who stand in the extreme end of an already
controversial topic. Given the political dimension of the story, and the
expected hate it will attract, all screenings of this doc (which the doctors
themselves attended as well), were tightly monitored by a security staff. I am
still looking forward to seeing Greg Barker's Manhunt: The Search For Osama Bin
Laden and Zachary Heinzerling’s Cutie and
The Boxer. 

Lastly, the Premieres –which are usually the most star-studded
entries of the festival- made for a colorful few days here in Park City. Park
Chan-Wook’s Stoker, which favored
style over substance in what happened to be the festival’s biggest
disappointment for me, widely divided audience reactions. In The East, Zal Batmanglij’s second
collaboration with the beautiful Brit Marling and his follow up to the
masterful Sound Of My Voice, tension
and mystery were tightly managed to the advantage of this highly entertaining film’s
pace. Among the titles I haven’t yet seen,
sex –as Robert Redford mentioned during the opening press conference- seems to
be a recurring theme in films such as Don
Jon’s Addiction (Joseph Gordon Levitt’s directorial debut), Anne Fontaine’s
Two Mothers, and Drake Doremus’ Breathe In. I look forward to catching
more of these titles before I depart on Wednesday. When one looks at the last weekend, it is easy to see that
none of the titles have been generating as much buzz as Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight, his third and final
(perhaps?) installment of the trilogy, which started out with Before Sunrise and Before Sunset. It had its first screening earlier tonight and many
critics on Twitter have already declared it a masterpiece. I am seeing it
tomorrow morning at 8:30 am and it won’t be easy, especially after tonight’s
Fox Searchlight party that was still in full swing as I was heading back to my
condo at well after midnight.

Jessica Chastain's 'Mama' and 'Zero Dark Thirty' could go 1-2 this weekend

Jessica Chastain just won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Now she has a standard horror genre picture coming out this weekend, though it does come courtesy of executive producer Guillermo del Toro. Still, it's unlikely that she'll be "Norbit-ed." The term refers to how Eddie Murphy, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls in 2006, may have had his changes torpedoed by his starring role in the lowbrow comedy. With a 63% positive rating on Rotten
Tomatoes (compared to Norbit's 7% positive rating), it's unlikely Mama (2,647 theatres) will be an embarrassment. The PG-13 rated picture is a "throwback and a modest delight
for people who like a good scare but prefer not to be terrorized or
grossed out," observes THR's critic Todd McCarthy. "Bloodthirsty female teens" will be a prime audience for the movie, which centers on Chastain and two young girls she takes in after a traumatic experience. An opening in the high teens would put the picture ahead of Zero Dark Thirty (also starring Chastain), though they should be neck and neck. If Zero Dark Thirty loses a third of its audience, which would be a particularly good hold, it will end up around $16 million, which should be enough for second place, if not first.

Last Stand and Broken City will both compete for adult male audiences this weekend. They're
expected to do fairly similar business, with each one ending up in the low teen millions. The Last Stand (2,913 theatres) is Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading-man role since he underwent the transition from movie star to politician, becoming a two-term governor of California. However, the action hero had much-touted cameos in the Expendables movies that many already considered his "return." Wittily self-referential, the film
particularly sends up Schwarzenegger’s age," reports FJI critic Marsha McCreadie, noting a scene where he has to don glasses to get a look at a bullet wound. The answer to the "implied question behind the film: Can
Schwarzenegger still deliver?" is yes.

A corrupt mayor (Russell Crowe) hires a P.I. (Mark Wahlberg) to find out if his wife (Catherine Zeta-Jones) is being unfaithful in Broken City (2,620 theatres). Of course, that initial hint of betrayal spirals into something much bigger in this "noir-ish" look
at New York City. The "broad, splashy pieces of easily digestible
narrative, visual and character components...provides
an easy ride into a cheesy, lazily imagined New York political
scandal," offers critic Doris Toumarkine. That might be enough to get adult males into seats this weekend, at least the ones who prefer to see power wielded cerebrally, not physically.

After spending three weeks playing in around 750 theatres, Silver Linings Playbook will open wide, into, 2,523 locations. The romantic comedy has earned $43 million to date. This weekend should add at least another $10 million to the total. All four lead actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) received Oscar nominations for their performances. With a cipher of a title and a premise that's hard to reduce to a one-line plot description, this movie has sought to gain viewers primarily through word-of-mouth, which is why it has rolled out so slowly.

On Monday, we'll see which Jessica Chastain film led the box office and how many Academy Award nominees kept their spot in the top ten.

 

 

Robert Redford salutes film as agent of change at 2013 Sundance.

The 2013 edition of the Sundance Film Festival kicked off yesterday
with an opening day Press Conference, where the “Sundance Kid” Robert Redford
(Founder and President of Sundance Institute), Keri Putnam (Sundance Institute
Executive Director) and John Cooper (Sundance Film Festival Director) engaged
in a conversation with the members of press, moderated by The Salt Lake Tribune
film critic and columnist Sean P. Means.

Redford’s opening remarks celebrated film as an agent of
change and took pride in Sundance’s mission to embrace and use it, giving The
New Frontier –which brings high technology and the artist together in a social
and creative space- as an example. The course of the conversation revealed
impressive first-time stats around the diversity of this year’s 190-film slate,
which includes 51 first-time filmmakers and represents 32 countries around the
globe. It also touched upon the equal divide between male and female filmmakers
in the Dramatic Competition, which is another first at Sundance. When talking
about the visible trends in this year’s slate (as well as the submissions that
didn’t make the cut), Redford and Cooper both quoted an evolved study of sex,
one that is not necessarily tied to romance but more to relations. In response
to a question from a press member, the trio also drew attention to the musically
rich offerings of this year’s program with titles such as Sound City and Twenty
Feet From Stardom. Following a political diversion where the topic switched to
guns vs. media, the conference ended with Redford announcing that Sundance is
not going to Brooklyn (despite the false news that ran a short while ago).

Following the press conference, both films I was able to see
on the festival’s first day coincidentally align with one of the trends that
were raised earlier in the conversation. May In The Summer, directed by Cherien Dabis, is one of the dramatic competition titles from a female filmmaker.
Following her 2007 Sundance sensation Amreeka which was that year’s Grand Jury
Prize winner in Dramatic Competition, Dabis once again depicts the inner
workings of a family against a contrasting cultural backdrop and reunites with
many of the same cast members, including the great Hiam Abbass. Despite Dabis’
best intentions though, she only manages to deliver a watchable film with May
In The Summer, that suffers from a simple-minded yet cluttered script. In portraying
the relationship of three Jordanian sisters’ with each other and their mother
(for which Dabis, who also plays one of the sisters, admittedly was inspired
by her own family), May In The Summer seems more concerned about ticking predictable
boxes around the universal troubles of females, rather than injecting a breath
of fresh air into the topic. Still, its somewhat naïve charm played reasonably
well with the crowd in a packed Eccles.

After a quick stop at Indiewire’s annual condo party, the
second film I caught, Morgan Neville’s Twenty Feet To Stardom (which competes
in the U.S. Documentary section), has the potential to become the next music
documentary hit and is already generating some potential distribution buzz. I
caught a late press screening, however got word that the film, which shines a
spotlight on five back-up singers (Merry Clayton, Darlene Love, Lisa
Fischer, Judith Hill and Tata Vega) – the unsung heroines who sang back-up
for icons such as Rolling Stones, Sting, Bruce Springsteen and Stevie Wonder- received
a standing ovation during its Eccles premiere earlier that evening, with
Clayton, Hill and Vega taking the stage at the post-screening Q&A for a
brief impromptu performance. This is an irresistible title with many
legendary/familiar tracks, including “Gimme Shelter”, which is the subject of
the film’s perhaps most spellbinding set piece that will surely leave all future
audiences speechless. Sundance Institute announced earlier this week that all five singers and
multi-platinum recording artist The Fray will perform at the annual ‘A
Celebration of Music in Film’ event on January 20; a performance which many at Sundance
look forward to attending.

Twitter Oscar Index offers social media perspective on awards race

The latest analysis of the Oscar race to join the fray, the Twitter Oscars Index measures how positively Oscar-nominated movies, actors, and directors are being talked about on Twitter. Unlike the Farsite Forecast, which is about calculating the odds of winning, the Twitter Oscar Index is more about sentiment. If there is a default rating for films or nominees, it appears to be around 80 on a scale of 100. But there are some notable exceptions.

In the Best Picture race, eight of the ten nominees are between 82 and 93 on sentiment. That means the tweets about the movies are 82% to 83% more positive than the average tweet. That makes sense, since these movies are the best of the best. Down a little lower is Amour with a score of 69. The foreign-language film was a surprise nominee, and only the fourth time a nominee for Best Foreign Language Film also showed up in the Best Picture category. But it's also considered quite depressing. Could that be affecting the score? Way, way below Amour is Zero Dark Thirty, which has been flatlining with an abysmally low score of 5.5. I guess the outcry over depictions of torture was enough to drive this score down. "Torture" is a negative sentiment, right...?

I suspect the Twitter Oscars Index may be more fun than actually useful. In the Supporting Actress category, Anne Hathaway is considered a lock for her soulful Fantine. She is also in the lead in the Twitterverse, with a sentiment score of 87.5, but there's no indication that she's considered a frontrunner. I also have no idea how Helen Hunt would be tracking so low, with a score of just 45. And how do they separate sentiments towards a celebrity from feelings about the actress in that role? After all, many of these actresses are juggling multiple films. Maybe people are just commenting on how much they loved/hated their Golden Globes dress, not the actress' performance.

Flaws aside, Twitter Oscars Index looks like a fun tool to check in on the Oscar race, now just 37 days away.

 

Could Farsite Forecast be to the Oscars what FiveThirtyEight was to politics?

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, nearly every movie was a winner, throwing many predictions for the Oscars askew. This year is tough for prognosticators, but one group, FarsiteForecast.com, claims its statistical model has an edge in predicting who will win the Academy Awards. In the vein of FiveThirtyEight, the blog run by Nate Silver that has proven to incredibly accurate in its predictions about political elections, Farsite applies predective modeling, or data science, to the Oscar race.

While Lincoln has been picked by many bloggers as most likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars, for example, it didn't win either of the Golden Globes' top honors, which went to Argo and Les
Miserables. Shouldn't that great showing raise the odds that one of these films
will win? According to FarsiteForecast.com, which is using data science
to track the Oscar race, the answer is no. The site is currently giving Argo just a 2.3% change of winning and Les Miserables a 1.6% chance of winning. Farsite predicts the race is between Lincoln (38.4% chance of winning) and Silver Linings Playbook (30.8% chance of winning).Since 1989's Driving Miss Daisy, no movie has won the Oscar for Best Film without also being nominated for Best Director. Since neither Argo or Les Miserables received that nomination, the odds are against them.

Other areas where Farsite Forecast predicts a toss-up, I see a clear winner. For Best Actor, they're giving Bradley Cooper and Daniel Day-Lewis nearly equal odds of winning. Personally, I think Day-Lewis underwent a more impressive transformation, but I also think Oscar voters wil want to
reward a "serious" actor of his stature in a film that was most commended for its acting. Cooper is fresh off his roles in The Hangover series.

Cooper is fresh off
his roles in The Hangover series. In his most
critically-acclaimed role yet, could he be the latest Hollywood star to make the
often transition from action and comedy star to Oscar winner? Right now,
he's 7% less likely to win than Day-Lewis, and I think that gap will
widen.

 

When it comes to the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, Farsite Forecast has one race in a lock already. Anne Hathaway has an 84.4% chance of winning the Oscar. For Hathaway, it's time to start creating space on the mantle for her statuette. During the Globes, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain both won Best Actress, in their respective comedy/drama categories. Lawrence has the edge in the Oscar race, with a 53.3% probability compared to Chastain's 34.6%.

Farsite Forecast's predictions currently match closely with bloggers' top contenders in each race. The model will continue to evolve as we get closer to the race and important guild awards are doled out. Will Farsite Forecast live up to the accuracy of similar models, like FiveThirtyEight's incredible track record at predicting political wins?