Jessica Chastain's 'Mama' and 'Zero Dark Thirty' could go 1-2 this weekend

Jessica Chastain just won a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Now she has a standard horror genre picture coming out this weekend, though it does come courtesy of executive producer Guillermo del Toro. Still, it's unlikely that she'll be "Norbit-ed." The term refers to how Eddie Murphy, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls in 2006, may have had his changes torpedoed by his starring role in the lowbrow comedy. With a 63% positive rating on Rotten
Tomatoes (compared to Norbit's 7% positive rating), it's unlikely Mama (2,647 theatres) will be an embarrassment. The PG-13 rated picture is a "throwback and a modest delight
for people who like a good scare but prefer not to be terrorized or
grossed out," observes THR's critic Todd McCarthy. "Bloodthirsty female teens" will be a prime audience for the movie, which centers on Chastain and two young girls she takes in after a traumatic experience. An opening in the high teens would put the picture ahead of Zero Dark Thirty (also starring Chastain), though they should be neck and neck. If Zero Dark Thirty loses a third of its audience, which would be a particularly good hold, it will end up around $16 million, which should be enough for second place, if not first.

Last Stand and Broken City will both compete for adult male audiences this weekend. They're
expected to do fairly similar business, with each one ending up in the low teen millions. The Last Stand (2,913 theatres) is Arnold Schwarzenegger's first leading-man role since he underwent the transition from movie star to politician, becoming a two-term governor of California. However, the action hero had much-touted cameos in the Expendables movies that many already considered his "return." Wittily self-referential, the film
particularly sends up Schwarzenegger’s age," reports FJI critic Marsha McCreadie, noting a scene where he has to don glasses to get a look at a bullet wound. The answer to the "implied question behind the film: Can
Schwarzenegger still deliver?" is yes.

A corrupt mayor (Russell Crowe) hires a P.I. (Mark Wahlberg) to find out if his wife (Catherine Zeta-Jones) is being unfaithful in Broken City (2,620 theatres). Of course, that initial hint of betrayal spirals into something much bigger in this "noir-ish" look
at New York City. The "broad, splashy pieces of easily digestible
narrative, visual and character components...provides
an easy ride into a cheesy, lazily imagined New York political
scandal," offers critic Doris Toumarkine. That might be enough to get adult males into seats this weekend, at least the ones who prefer to see power wielded cerebrally, not physically.

After spending three weeks playing in around 750 theatres, Silver Linings Playbook will open wide, into, 2,523 locations. The romantic comedy has earned $43 million to date. This weekend should add at least another $10 million to the total. All four lead actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) received Oscar nominations for their performances. With a cipher of a title and a premise that's hard to reduce to a one-line plot description, this movie has sought to gain viewers primarily through word-of-mouth, which is why it has rolled out so slowly.

On Monday, we'll see which Jessica Chastain film led the box office and how many Academy Award nominees kept their spot in the top ten.

 

 

'Five-Year Engagement' aims for date-night audiences

By heavily marketing The Five-Year Engagement (2,936 theatres) as "from the producer of Bridesmaids," Universal hopes to draw in audiences looking for raunchy, original humor as well as traditional rom-com viewers. Writers Jason Segel (who stars) and Nicholas Stoller (who directs) guarantee at least some appeal to the male crowd, especially those who took a shine to the duo after Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which shares many similarities with the current project. In my review, I call it a "notch above," but it's nothing more than a reasonably fun way to spend a Friday night. Plus, unlike many more stereotypical romantic comedies, you won't leave with a bad taste in your mouth. Prognosticators expect an opening at least in the teen millions.

The first animated offering in two months, The Pirates! Band of Misfits (3,358 theatres) will release in 3D. The "inspired nonsense" of a story makes for "endearing drollery," according to FJI critic Rex Roberts. The Aardman Entertainment production is filled with typical British humor, which could dampen grosses a bit, but the feature should still land somewhere at least in the teen millions.

A kind of mix of the revisionist fantasy The Grimm Brothers and From Hell, The Raven (2,203 theatres) follows Edgar Allan Poe as he tries to track down a murderer who is using Poe's books for inspiration. The "lamebrain concept" failed to entice critic David Noh, who described the suspenser as an "endless, tireless cartoon." An opening somewhere north of $10 million is in the forecast.

"The best Jason Statham outing in some time," according to critic Daniel Eagan, Safe (2,266 theatres) promises to "[hurtle] viewers along its twisting, sordid storyline." Despite this rave from Eagan, the action thriller is expected to earn just below $10 million, though Eagan feels it could "grab a wider audience through word of mouth."

On the specialty front, indie darling Brit Marling plays a cult leader in the "taut and unnerving" Sound of My Voice (5 theatres), which critic Erica Abeel gave a thumbs-up. Jack Black is the highlight of Bernie (3 theatres), a black comedy about a man who murders an elderly woman, and is based on a true story. Finally, Elles, a sex-filled French tale about a journalist who investigates college students moonlighting as prostitutes, should excite stateside audiences, though male viewers may "[leave] the theatre disappointed that Freud’s famous question, 'What does a woman want?' remains profoundly unanswered," Roberts reflects.

On Monday, come back to see if audiences bought the "Bridesmaids spinoff" pitch and if families turned out for a fresh animated offering.

'The Lucky One' and 'Think Like a Man' vie for date-night audiences

Best-selling author Nicholas Sparks has a solid track record at the movie box office, and it should remain unsullied by the release of The Lucky One (3,155 theatres). Starring Zac Efron as a former ex-soldier and the newbie Taylor Schiller as the object of his affection, the romance is "good-looking but hollow," according to our critic Daniel Eagan. The "smoothly entertaining but easily forgettable" love story sounds like just the kind of undemanding film suitable for a girls' night out or date night. The PG rating and presence of former tween star Efron should draw in younger audiences in particular. Experts predict an opening north of $20 million.

Although it's opening in only two-thirds of the locations of The Lucky One, Think Like a Man (2,015 theatres) could be the underdog that makes big. The "astute, contemporary romantic comedy," as described by THR's Michael Rechtshaffen, has been picking up steam. It may earn in the mid-twenty millions, surpassing the military romance many have seen as the front-runner. Based on Steve Harvey's book Act Like a Lady, Think Like a Man, the comedy follows in the footsteps of other advice books-turned-movies, like He's Just Not That Into You. With a primarily black cast, the comedy should do particularly well among the same demographic, which is known for turning out on opening weekend. That could bring the release to the top spot.

A couple of films this week are taking advantage of holidays, both official and unofficial. Chimpanzee (1,563 theatres) is a Disneynature release timed to Earth Day, which is this Sunday. The first of the four Earth Day films, 2009's Oceans, opened to $8 million and earned four times that in total. Last year's African Cats opened to just $6 million and finished with just double that figure. Apes are more personable and relatable than cats, so Chimpanzee could end up doing slightly better than last year's offering. The nature docs are designed to tell family stories that appeal to kids, so "anthropomorphism can get heavy-handed, [and] the family values of teamwork and loyalty sometimes overstated," according to critic Marsha McCreadie. Parents may prefer "Planet Earth," but their kids will probably adore the Disneynature version.

Today is also 4/20, the celebrated stoner holiday, so what better day to release Marley (45 theatres), a documentary about the famous reggae musician Bob Marley, who also liked to partake in Jamaica's intoxicating crop. McCreadie calls it a "benchmark" and "must-see," even though she also harbors some reservations, noting that at the end of the long movie, "you are in the paradoxical position of wanting less movie, more Marley." The Magnolia release will open day-and-date with Facebook, so the industry will be watching to see the impact that has on the doc's theatrical release.

 On Monday, we'll see if The Lucky One or Think Like a Man clinched the top spot, and if the topical Earth Day and 4/20 releases attracted their respective audiences.

'Underworld' expected to outperform 'Red Tails,' 'Haywire'

The fourth installment in the Underworld series, Underworld: Awakening (3,078 theatres) is expected to lead the weekend box office with an opening in the low $20 million range. Kate Beckinsale stars as a vampire "warrioress" in the action-horror sequel, which did not screen in advance for critics.

My recommendation for female-driven action this weekend is Haywire (2,439 theatres), which will definitely be the best film I'll see in January. Mixed martial arts fighter Gina Carno stars as a contract worker for the CIA who's double-crossed by her colleagues. In the extremely realistic fight scenes, she'll literally be picked up and thrown around by her hulking male opponents, then somehow manage to overpower them. Director Steven Soderbergh really does a great job showing how she's outmatched in certain respects, but absolutely able to dominate in others. I left the theatre with a huge smile on my face, a pretty rare thing. This is definitely an action movie for those who are pretty selective about their action movies, in part thanks to the great direction by Steven Soderbergh. The critical community as a whole gave the spy-action pic an 82% positive Rotten Tomatoes rating. Despite these enthusiastic responses, an opening weekend of just $8-10 million is expected. That's too bad, and I hope word-of-mouth gives this movie the number of eyes it deserves.

George Lucas shepherded Red Tails (2,512 theatres) through 23 years of development, funding it himself when Hollywood studios refused to finance a movie with an all-black cast. The WWII-set tale focuses on the Tuskegee airmen, a group of black male fighter pilots who fought the Nazis abroad and prejudice back home. Critic Doris Toumarkine admits the plotting is "formulaic," but lauds the actioner for its "solid entertainment and sensational special effects," as well as its coverage of the "civil-rights struggle" of the time. Red Tails is expected to be neck-and-neck with Haywire, with both coming close to $10 million. I think at least one of these could be a surprise overperformer.

On the heels of its Golden Globe win for Best Comedy, The Artist is expanding into 662 theatres. But will patrons demand refunds, as those in the U.K. did, claiming they didn't know the retro-styled movie was silent?

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, which has quietly and successfully been in release for a month in six locations, will go wide to 2,660 theatres. Critics are divided, with exactly 50% on the positive side, and the other half giving it a thumbs-down.  67% of Rotten Tomatoes commenters liked the movie. I'm curious how the nation as a whole will respond to the post-9/11 drama.

On Monday, we'll see if audiences went with the heroine of Haywire or Underworld, if Red Tails can attract audiences of every color, and if The Artist and Extremely Loud can successfully scale their release.

'Hop' provides tough competition for 'Arthur,' 'Soul Surfer,' 'Hanna'

By Sarah Sluis

Four new movies will be hitting theatres this weekend, but last week's Hop is a near-lock for grabbing first place again. The Easter-themed CG/live-action film earned $37 million last weekend, and will likely drop less than 50% this weekend, standard for animated, family-driven movies.

The remake of the 1981 comedy Arthur (3,276 theatres) should approach $20 million but fall short of beating Hop. Russell Brand, who also lends his voice for the bunny tale, stars as a rich alcoholic who finds love just as he's being pushed into a marriage to a cold high-achiever. While the first Arthur was a word-of-mouth hit, the remake fails "to recapture the magic," according to critic Kevin Lally. One highlight is Greta Gerwig as Arthur's love interest. She goes from "Mumblecore darling" to "very endearing and natural as the down-to-earth Naomi," the role originally played by Liza Minnelli.

Soul Surfer (2,214 theatres) is my pick for an overperformer. Based on the true story of teen surfing star Bethany Hamilton, who lost her arm in a shark attack, the drama also incorporates Hamilton's faith strongly, a surefire way to attract the religious crowd that helped make The Blind Side a hit. One problem the movie will have to overcome is the 127 Hours curse--people that don't want to see a movie with a gruesome amputation. However, I saw one of those "test screening" television commercials this week that featured enthusiastic pre-teens raving about the movie. I was a convert, and critic Doris Toumarkine confirms that the movie is "paradoxically, remarkably uplifting."

Your Highness (2,769 theatres) is an "earnest, messy and often quite funny" spoof of "'80s-era medieval romps," according to critic Ethan Alter. That's a nice way of saying "stoner Princess Bride comedy." Oddly populated with both an Oscar nominee (James Franco) and a winner (Natalie Portman) from this year, Your Highness also stars Danny McBride and Zooey Deschanel in "one of the oddest comedies to emerge from a major Hollywood studio in recent years." The only R-rated film of the week, this fantasy-comedy-adventure should at least top $10 million.

Rounding out the bunch is Hanna (2,535 theatres), which stars Saoirse Ronan as a teen assassin. Director Joe Wright fills the film with stylistic and musical flourishes, but critic Rex Roberts bemoaned that the actioner "starts out edgy and fresh, but runs out of steam and imagination." I predict that young film buffs will be entranced with the movie's showy use of sound, long takes, and other cinephile big-ticket items. Unlike Sucker Punch, this girl-driven action movie is far from being a purely male fantasy, which should broaden appeal.

The most notable specialty release is Meek's Cutoff (2 theatres), which comes from director Kelly Reichardt (Wendy and Lucy). Set on the Oregon Trail, the story centers on three families lost on a difficult route. Alter praised Reichardt for "telling an epic story in an astonishingly intimate fashion." She "immerses you in a way of life long since vanished without feeling like a dry history lesson."

On Monday, I'll see where the quartet of new releases landed in the top ten, and which films drew moviegoers.

Looking ahead to 2011: 'Water for Elephants,' 'Cedar Rapids'

By Sarah Sluis

The wave of end-of-the-year movies brings with it the release of a host of new trailers. I weigh in on the prospects of a couple of movies that actually look good (at least in their trailers).

Water for Elephants (April 22):

Starring Reese Witherspoon, Robert Pattinson, and Christoph Waltz (in a love triangle!), this movie is based on a best-selling book (that I never managed to read past page twenty). But the trailer is another story, showing off a lush, period circus environment shot with shadowy and vibrant cinematography. Witherspoon wears her sparkly leotard with panache, and her graceful movements as a circus performer at the :51 mark made me a believer. Cons: The trailer music is a bit treacly--could this be a harbinger of the movie's tone as a whole?

Cedar Rapids (Feb. 11):

Could this be the rare comedy that's actually funny? The trailer's humor is part "The Office," part Office Space, and also could be called a more upbeat, blue collar version of Up in the Air (Though George Clooney's character would have sniffed disparagingly at Ed Helms' clueless navigation of business travel). I liked director's Miguel Arteta's overlooked teen comedy Youth in Revolt, and if Cedar Rapids avoids that brand of painfully over-the-top humor that makes the audience cringe (I'm looking at you, Due Date), I think it will be good for a quiet chuckle.

These two films are just a sampling of the many movies in the early part of 2011 that I'm excited about -- Hanna, Jane Eyre, and a smaterring of maybe-good comedies (Hall Pass, Paul, Just Go For It), and dramas (The Adjustment Bureau) should make the early part of 2011 an active one.

Box office overflows with 'Tron: Legacy,' 'How Do You Know,' and 'Yogi Bear'

By Sarah Sluis

We're in the home stretch of the holiday box office season. Three films go into wide release today, and they'll have just five days in the sun before another trio of wide releases (Little Fockers, True Grit, and Gulliver's Travels) bombards holiday audiences.

Disney's been promoting TRON: Legacy (3,451 theatres, including 2,424 in 3D) for years at Comic-Con, and the studio is counting on its long-term marketing efforts to result in a $40 million+ payday over opening weekend. The attempt to "mature" the material from 1982's TRON "[turns] out to be goofier than the original's overeager earnestness," critic Ethan Alter notes. "In trying to make TRON matter to a new generation, Legacy winds up squandering the best thing about the original: its sense of fun." While the story may not be the movie's strong suit, the visuals "lightcycle" races are stunning, and Daft Punk's score sets a dark, techno mood.

The eminently successful James L. Brooks falls short of achieving another masterpiece in How Do You Know (2,483 theatres), which stars Reese Witherspoon, Paul Rudd, Owen Wilson, and Jack Nicholson. His "faltering" hand, according to critic David Noh, results in a "particularly uncertain yet pushy and often tone-deaf romantic comedy." The actors (who reportedly accounted for close to $50 million of the talent budget) earn their keep, but to what end? "It is almost a criminal waste that both Reese Witherspoon and Paul Rudd give two of their most heartfelt, charming performances," Noh sighs.

If the idea of hearing Yogi Bear (Dan Aykroyd) and Boo Boo (Justin Timberlake) singing odes to "pic-a-nic baskets" sounds like punishment, not entertainment, you're not one of the many families expected to turn out this weekend for the spectacle, which will unspool in 3,515 theatres, including 2,011 in 3D. Alter pegs this film as about a 5 out of 10 "on the scale of live-action updates of old cartoons," which is to say it's a "relentlessly uninspired and proudly juvenile production," but "doesn't feature a trio of CGI-rodents singing bad pop songs at a pitch only dogs (and kids under the age of eight) can tolerate."

Rabbit Hole (5 theatres) stars Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart as parents coping with the death of their child. Though the film has drawn raves for Kidman's performance, critic Frank Lovece wasn't one of those applauding. Except for one moment of "layered subtlety," Kidman's "performance [is] so controlled that even when [the couple] Becca and Howie have their inevitable shouting match, it feels forced and false."

Because we're in high season for movies, a number of released films are still gathering steam. The Fighter is making the biggest jump, expanding into 2,503 theatres after opening in just four last week. Black Swan, which already had a spot in the top ten with just 90 theatres, will expand to 959 theatres. The Tempest, which made a so-so debut last week, will stay specialty, spreading to just 21 theatres. For all of these films, success or failure will be determined in the final weeks of 2010.

'Bride Wars' battles 'The Unborn'

By Sarah Sluis

It's Friday premiere time at the box office, and the biggest release is Bride Wars (3,226 theatres), a film



sure to water down the flames surrounding Anne Hathaway's Rachel Getting Married "Best Actress" nomination, and extinguish the embers of Kate Hudson's rom-com career run. Four out of five Kate Hudson movies are rom-coms, and the only distinguishing one of the pack was Almost Famous, more a comedy-drama (and a supporting role!) than the unlucky-in-love pieces she, or her agent, insist on making. All this makes me wonder--can Kate Hudson actually act? Besides Almost Famous, I did enjoy her in twist-ending The Skeleton Key, but How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days? Or this weekend's Bride Wars? Save me. Thankfully, it appears Hudson has received the message: her next projects include two dramatic, historical romances (departure!), and a supporting role in prestige picture Nine (stage adaptation; Weinstein project).

Next on the list is The Unborn (2,356 theatres), another addition to the wave of Holocaust/Nazi movies that have been raining on audiences. This time, though, a woman is possessed by a deceased demonic twin, which has its root in Nazi spirits and can only be ousted by a Holocaust survivor. It sounds a bit exploitative and disrespectful to me, but I'm sure the film manages to handle this deftly. Especially because one of their frights involves a dream of a dog wearing a human mask. Go see it if this idea creeps you out in a good way.

Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino expands to 2,808 theatres this week, ensuring audiences will see this well-reviewed film that has especially resonated with older viewers. The Reader will also expand to 507 theatres, surpassing the release of Kate Winslet's other picture, Revolutionary Road, which is still at 135 theatres.

Not Easily Broken, about a couple struggling to maintain their marriage, sounds like the black version of Fireproof, the Christian-themed film that quietly made over $30 million this fall by marketing towards church groups and highly targeting its distribution. Since Not Easily Broken is releasing on just 724 screens, demographic targeting will be extremely important to the film's success.

My advice? Stick to seeing the event/awards films, but, if you must, know that the fluffy releases smell a bit like a dog left in the rain.