New buddy comedy could make things ‘Awkward’ for ‘Ride Along’

Super Bowl weekend is a notoriously slow period at the box office, and expectations for each of the two films opening wide today – That Awkward Moment and Labor Day – are muted.  Both movies target a female audience, with the one following a trio of Manhattan pals as they individually succumb to the women they had sworn off, and the other being an unapologetic and seemingly old-fashioned weepie romance. Distributors are surely figuring women are more likely than their male counterparts to go to the movies this weekend, though it remains to be seen whether either of the aforementioned conceits will prove appealing enough to lure even the most disinterested of female sports fans away from her TV and, really, Sunday’s main attraction: the commercials.

That Awkward Moment, opening in 2,809 theatres, is poised to do the better business of the two. As of this morning the comedy was tracking around $10-$15 million, which means it could finally displace Ride Along as king of the box office – or, just as plausibly, fall in line behind Ice Cube and Kevin Hart’s likable flick. It’ll be a tight race between the two bro-centric offerings.

With a slightly smaller release platform of 2,584 locations, Labor Day will likely land at the lower end of the fiscal spectrum. The film has failed to impress critics, whose accumulated pans have earned Jason Reitman’s latest offering a poor 32% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Pundits foresee a total weekend haul of around $6 million.

That leaves The Nut Job, Frozen and Lone Survivor to fall somewhere in between That Awkward Moment and Ride Along at the top, and Labor Day at the bottom of the list of the weekend’s highest-grossing films. The Nut Job managed to beat out b.o. darling Frozen last weekend, but Disney is going all-out diva – or rather, encouraging that mindset in its fan base – as of today: The studio is releasing a sing-along version of their animated hit. Considering Frozen’s soundtrack is the first since High School Musical 2 to spend at least three weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard charts, we’d call that a pretty savvy move. In which case, look for Lone Survivor to comfortably occupy the weekend box office’s No. 5 spot.

‘Ride Along’ to pull up ahead of ‘Jack Ryan’

Buddy cop comedy Ride Along, starring Ice Cube and comedian Kevin Hart, whose documentary Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain was one of the most successful docs of 2013, is poised to cut in front of the other guys and finish first this weekend. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will likely be Ride’s fiercest competitor, although the spy reboot isn’t expected to put up much of a fight.

Ride Along follows a seasoned cop who tries to scare away his sister’s boyfriend by taking the wannabe policeman on a faux ride-along – which soon turns very and hilariously real. Pundits believe the film’s dual plots involving a romantic relationship and a budding bromance should appeal to audiences of both genders and help the film score big at the box-office. Expectations are hovering about $30 million for the long weekend. Interestingly, if Ride Along does earn the most money, this will be the third consecutive year a Universal film has come out on top over the MLK holiday.

Chris Pine is now the fourth actor to tackle the popular Tom Clancy character Jack Ryan. Alec Baldwin played him once and Harrison Ford played him twice in the ‘90s, while Ben Affleck made the most recent attempt to establish a Jack Ryan franchise with 2002’s The Sum of All Fears. Is Chris Pine finally the guy to make a Bourne-like success of Ryan? Unclear. The film has gotten mixed though not terrible reviews, with many critics adopting an ambivalent attitude: Competent enough, but we’ve seen it before. Shadow Recruit opens in 3,387 theatres to Ride Along’s 2,662, but even with a potentially larger audience base, the movie is only expected to gross somewhere in the high-teens.

2013 saw a number of high returns for horror films, and Devil’s Due may be looking to continue that momentum. Unfortunately, the movie’s found-footage conceit, once a popular device, seems to be wearing thin with viewers. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones also featured spooky video and yet it failed to match the figures of past Paranormal Activity movies, opening to just $18 million, a new franchise low. Devil’s Due doesn’t have a similarly recognizable name, or cast (although fans of TV show “Friday Night Lights” will be excited to see Matt Saracen up on the big screen), in which case, the film will likely clock in between $10 and $15 million.

Animated kids’ comedy The Nut Job is the last new release opening wide this weekend. Comparisons to Disney’s winter behemoth Frozen are inevitable, although the latter continues to hold remarkably strong. The nutty squirrel caper may have novelty on its side, but Frozen has the enduring appeal of Idina Menzel. The princess musical will likely out-earn Job, which isn’t expected to gross more than $20 million or so.

Lastly, several Academy Award nominees are getting their pre-Oscars re-release this weekend, to the delight of those intent on seeing each of the nine Best Picture contenders before the March 2 telecast. Technically, Captain Phillips is already two days into its theatrical return, having opened in 903 theatres on Wednesday. Favorites Gravity and 12 Years a Slave will screen in 944 and 761 locations, respectively.