‘Paranormal Activity’ to scare up weekend business

Though 2013 ended on a high note earlier this week – domestic sales tallied out at almost $11 billion for the year – the first weekend of 2014 will likely be a quiet one.  The Marked Ones, the fifth installment in the popular Paranormal Activity horror franchise, is the only new release opening today. The first PA film was a surprise hit and a testament to the power of word-of-mouth buzz. The micro-budgeted flick, released in 2007, earned $107.9 million and is still the series’ most successful movie. Paranormal Activity 2 grossed $84.8 million in 2010, while Paranormal 3 has come the closest yet to matching the first film’s haul, raking in $104 million in 2011. Paranormal Activity 4, however, which opened in 2012, took in roughly half its predecessor’s total, earning just $53.9 million.

This time around, the filmmakers are hoping to utilize the power of demographics. The lead actors in The Marked Ones are Latino, perhaps a direct casting nod to the series’ fans: Latinos tend to make up a large percentage of horror-movie audiences. Not to mention, with the success of recent films targeted toward Latino viewers, such as Instructions Not Included, Hollywood in general seems to be wising up to the power (i.e. the willingness to spend) of this previously underserved group. Besides a shift in players, though, it’s supernatural business as usual, with previews emphasizing unsettling video footage, the franchise’s hallmark.

Pundits are predicting a haul of just under $25 million for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Expectations have been softened by the weekend’s Northeastern snowstorm, which many believe will keep viewers inside, where their VOD, DVDs and Netflix are more readily accessible.

A good portion of those who are brave enough to weather the elements in search of off-the-couch entertainment, though, will in all likelihood opt for Disney’s grand success story, Frozen. This weekend will mark the animated musical’s sixth in theatres, and it’s still going strong. Strong enough to win the No. 2 slot just beneath The Marked Ones, according to those in the know. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will probably clock in at No. 3, followed by Oscar and fan favorite American Hustle, with Anchorman 2 rounding out the top 5. Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street may be able to leverage recent controversy and prurient interest in its subject matter to sneak its way into the No. 5 slot, just ahead of Burgundy and his much more harmless coterie of buffoons, but given Street’s low Cinemascore rating  of a “C”, that seems unlikely.

 

'Riddick' reigns amid September slump

In late August and September, it doesn't take much in order to ascend to the top spot. For Riddick, it took just $18.7 million to lead in the slowest weekend yet in 2013. This marks the third time Vin Diesel has played the Riddick character, and the third film fell somewhere in the middle: better than the accompanying film Pitch Black, and weaker than The Chronicles of Riddick. Even with back-to-school obligations and the start of NFL season drawing away interest, Riddick connected with its core audience, which skews male, 30+, and Hispanic.

Box office as a whole was down, but a couple of movies bucked the trend. Last week's Spanish-language hit, Instructions Not Included, went up 3% to $8.1 million, maintaining its audience as it expanded into twice as many theatres. That's an excellent second week, and distributor Pantelion's biggest hit yet. Sony was able to squeeze another $2 million from This Is the End in a one-week return to over 2,000 locations, which put the comedy just shy of $100 million.

The faith-based inspirational movie The Ultimate Life had a solid, if not spectacular, debut of $650,000 in limited release, with a so-so per-screen average of $1,500.

The Weinstein Co. had one hit and one miss this week. Salinger, the documentary about the reclusive writer, debuted to a solid $22,000 per screen in four locations, the highest average of the week. Meanwhile, its French import, Populaire, averaged just $5,500 per-screen while playing in three locations.

This Friday, the action-comedy The Family will go up against the sequel to 2011's sleeper horror hit, Insidious: Chapter 2.

 

'Butler' returns to win in mixed bag Labor Day weekend

During a quiet Labor Day weekend, The Butler made a splash, becoming the first 2013 release to stay at the top spot for three weekends in a row. The Civil Rights-movement drama starring Forest Whitaker and, of course, Oprah, earned $14.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $20 million

over the four-day period. Its Monday total was enough to push it ahead of One Direction: This Is Us, which earned $15 million over the normal weekend period, and $18 million through Monday. Concert movies have been popular ever since tween singer Miley Cyrus (you know, the star that performed at the VMAs last weekend) took the sleepy Super Bowl weekend by storm and opened Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour to $31 million. Since then, concert movies have been a bit hit-or-miss, with the Jonas Brothers completely bombing their debut, and Katy Perry not doing much better last year. But Sony was quick to point out that the One Direction movie cost just $10 million, making it an inexpensive win for the studio.

A Spanish-language underdog of a movie, Instructions Not Included, made it to fifth place over the long weekend with a total haul of $10 million. It marks the biggest hit yet for Pantelion Films,
the Lionsgate arm devoted to distributing films targeted at Hispanic audiences. The family-focused narrative, a mixture of comedy and heart, wowed audiences, who gave the movie an "A+" in exit polls. Popular Mexican comedian Eugenio Derbez plays a man who takes in his daughter after her birth mother abandons her, then fights to keep her when the mother shows up after they've formed a close bond. In release in just over 300 theatres, it had the best location average of the week, $28,000 per screen.

The car-set thriller Getaway lived up to its 2% "Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with a four-day total of $5.5 million. Still, that was better than the thriller Closed Circuit, which earned $2.5 million over the weekend. Focus Features has used this time slot before for adult thrillers like The American and The Debt, but this opening was markedly worse than those two releases, coming in with just a fraction of the take of those movies' opening weekends.

While the long weekend was poor for new releases, other returning releases posted lower-than-average drops. Blue Jasmine, in its second weekend on over 1,000 screens, had a four-day total of $5.3 million, matching last week's performance day for day. The Grandmaster, which expanded onto over 700 screens, earned $3.1 million, an excellent showing for the martial arts feature.

This Friday will be a light in major releases, with only Riddick opening in over 2,000 theatres.