The ‘Hobbit’ to tower over ‘Madea’

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas will go head-to-head at the box office this weekend, although the matchup is not exactly a nail-biter. As the second prequel in the incredibly popular and successful Lord of the Rings franchise, Hobbit is pretty much guaranteed a stronger bow. Last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Smaug’s predecessor, earned $300 million domestically and an unearthly $1 billion worldwide. Critics, however, didn’t love it, and even fan reactions were mixed, certainly in comparison with the kind of accolades heaped upon director Peter Jackson’s Rings trilogy. Journey’s success was largely due to its ability to leverage the popularity of these films, while Smaug has a more difficult road ahead of it as it works to prove it’s better (more fun, less dragging) than its predecessor. Luckily, critics seem to think it is. The Desolation of Smaug will probably earn $15 million less than Journey and open to around $70 million or so. The fact that such a staggering gross would still be considered a qualified success speaks to the ridiculous earning potential of – and ridiculous expectations surrounding – these movies.

Though it isn’t expected to trump The Hobbit, Madea’s box-office odds are still looking pretty merry. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas is the director’s 14th movie in the past eight years. Eight of Perry’s 13 movies have opened to $20 million or more. A more fun fact: The only other directors to have had as many $20 million openings are Robert Zemeckis, who has had nine, and Steven Spielberg, who can boast 11. In total, Perry’s oeuvre has earned $674 million domestically, with his top three films all featuring his Madea character, or Perry dressed up as a smart-mouthed granny. Odds are Madea will chuckle up a little less than $30 million.

Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire are still going strong and will probably land at nos. three and four, respectively. Specialty enthusiasts and Academy Awards speculators, though, are more concerned with Disney and Jennifer Lawrence’s other movies opening in limited release this weekend: Saving Mr. Banks and American Hustle. Viewers are expected to be drawn in like moths to the Oscar-gold flame surrounding these two. Awards buzz is thick around Lawrence, who plays a broadly cockamamie housewife in Hustle, and Emma Thompson as the persnickety Mary Poppins author, P.L. Travers, in Banks. The latter film is opening in 15 locations ahead of its wide release next weekend, while Hustle will screen in six theatres.

‘Frozen’ ices weekend competition

Undeterred by the weekend’s frigid temperatures and, in many areas, first major snowstorm of the year, audiences showed they were all about that ice by lining up for Disney’s Frozen. The animated hit grossed $31.6 million, enough to bypass The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (which took in $27 million) for the weekend’s top slot. Frozen dropped just 53% to earn the best post-Thanksgiving haul ever. Previous record-holder, Toy Story 2, took in $27.8 million in 1999, while three years ago, Frozen’s Mouse-House sister Tangled grossed $21.6 million over this same weekend. In total, Disney’s latest success story will likely earn around $250 million domestically.

Frozen’s worthy competitor Catching Fire continues to do spectacular business, on track to leave with upwards of $400 million by the time its theatrical run has come to an end, although many pundits were surprised by the film’s steep downturn this weekend. The Hunger Games sequel dipped 64%, which is worse than both of the last two Twilight movies.  No need to cry for Katniss, though: The action flick has, so far, earned a total of $336.7 million domestically, with another few weeks of solid earning potential ahead of it.

The same can’t be said of the weekend’s No. 3 slot and only new major release. While no one was particularly surprised Out of the Furnace failed to prove itself a hit, the extent of its failure was greater than expected. With a dismal $5.3 million bow, the revenge thriller is an unqualified bomb. Those who had compared it to last year’s Killing Them Softly, which earned $6.8 million and was also a disappointment, were expecting Furnace to fare a little better and gross about $10 million or so. Audiences, however, may have felt there was enough bleakness to be viewed outside their windows, and decided to opt for something lighter.

Something like Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, which inched past the $100 million mark to become the 6th R-rated comedy to reach the milestone this year. The Coen Bros. Inside Llewyn Davis also did banner specialty business, debuting to $401,000 from just four locations, two in New York and two in LA. Its per-theatre average of $100,250 is the 18th best ever, or 8th best for a live-action film. The movie will next expand on the 20th, although its wide release isn't slated until some time in January. 

‘Furnace’ to fall behind ‘Frozen’ & ‘Fire’

The weekend after Thanksgiving is typically a quiet one for the nation’s box office, and this year, only one new release is opening wide. That would be Out of the Furnace, a gritty, bleak revenge drama starring the gritty, bleak Batman, Christian Bale, as well as Casey Affleck, Zoe Saldana, and Woody Harrelson. Expectations aren’t quite as dour as the film’s subject matter, location and production stills, but they’re not overly hopeful. To compare, Killing Them Softly was in the same position this time last year, as a new release bowing after the holiday weekend. It boasted a big movie star, Brad Pitt, but failed to leverage the actor’s perceived wide appeal. Softly opened to $6.8 million. Furnace isn’t tracking great with critics, either, (52% rotten on infallible taste barometer Rotten Tomatoes), though it’ll likely fare better than Brad’s failed bet. Screening in 2,101 theatres, odds are, it’ll earn around $10 million.

That kind of haul would likely place it at No. 3, behind last weekend’s reigning champions Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. General consensus has Games finally slipping from the top slot, to the gain of family friendly Frozen. This will be the action flick's third weekend in theatres, while Frozen, now in its sophomore outing, has youth and a bit more novelty on its side. Comparable franchise series Twilight and Harry Potter both experienced a significant downturn in sales over this same weekend, on average dropping about 60%. Games, however, has consistently done better business than either of its blockbuster peers, meaning its dip shouldn’t be quite as severe - probably about 50%. Both the princess and the provocateur (there’s a college term paper for you) should earn figures in the mid-to-high $30 million range, with Frozen gaining the edge.

Art-house aficionados have been edge-of-their-seats with anticipation over the new Coen brothers’ film, Inside Llewyn Davis, opening in four locations in LA and New York today.  The film, allegedly inspired by the experiences of folk singer Dave Van Ronk in 1960’s Greenwich Village, has been earning rave reviews (95% fresh on RT). Not to mention, its hooky, ridiculous protest song “Please Mr. Kennedy” has steadily been making its viral way into the hearts, and that part of your brain that’s like fly paper to a catchy tune, for a few days now. It doesn’t have the foot-tapping appeal of a “Man of Constant Sorrow,” from the brothers’ O Brother, Where Art Thou? But it does have “Girls” actor Adam Driver as a real-life space cowboy.  Between the siblings’ cachet, the film’s positive buzz, and the below clip, Davis should significantly out-earn its predecessor, A Serious Man, which opened to $41,890 in 2009.

 

‘Catching Fire’ does just that

As predicted, records were shattered this past weekend, thanks to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’s fantastic bow. The sequel to 2012’s Hunger Games (and we thought that film was popular) earned $161.1 million domestically and $307.7 worldwide. Here’s how it stacks up against previous cinematic and pop culture phenoms:

• Catching Fire had the highest-grossing November opening of all time. The old record-holder, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, debuted to a paltry (it’s all relative) $148.2 million.


• Catching Fire had the fourth highest-grossing opening ever. Its cume ranks just behind The Avengers’ $207.4 million, Iron Man 3’s $174.1 million, and the last Harry Potter movie’s $169.2 million.


• Katniss & Co. just barely dethroned The Dark Knight Rises, which got bumped down a peg to the No. 5 slot on the list of most successful domestic opening weekends. Knight opened to $160.9 million back in 2012.

Catching Fire is also Lionsgate’s most successful release to date. It had the 12th most lucrative international opening ever.

Some other movies made some money this weekend, too, although their stories are less uplifting. Thor: The Dark World earned $14.1 million, the most money of any film that was not Catching Fire. As its total suggests, The Dark World suffered a freefall of a drop in sales, down 61% from last week. The Best Man Holiday, last weekend’s surprise success story, also staggered, falling 58% to gross $12.5 million. While reverberations from the revolution brewing in The Hunger Games' Panem have clearly hurt the cinema’s other offerings, neither The Dark World nor Holiday has been fatally wounded. The Thor sequel will likely finish out with a little over $200 million, while The Best Man Holiday will probably top out at $75 million.

Similar reassurances cannot be made on behalf of Vince Vaughn’s latest vehicle, Delivery Man. The comedian begat a bomb with his tale of a boy-man sperm donor whose contributions result in 500+ children. Delivery Man grossed $8.2 million, less than half of each of Vaughn’s last two films, The Internship and The Dilemma. At least Vaughn can take comfort in knowing other name stars, at least those who were not christened Jennifer Lawrence, have also seen their stock fall this season. Both Runner Runner, starring Ben Affleck and Justin Timberlake, and The Counselor, whose credits read like the guest list for Vanity Fair’s Oscar party (Penelope Cruz, Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Michael Fassbender, and Brad Pitt) opened to less than $10 million. Times, they are a changin’.

One thing, however, remains constant: the undeniable appeal of Judi Dench. The grand dame’s Philomena opened in four locations and earned a respectable (how could it could have been anything other than?) $133,716, or $33,429 per theatre.

Neither has Tom Hanks lost his enduring appeal. The actor’s Oscar contender Captain Phillips sailed past the $100 million domestic mark this weekend, its seventh, with no sign of slowing pace.

‘Games’ to make child’s play of weekend b.o.

It’s a foregone conclusion the second installment in the Hunger Games franchise, opening today in 4,163 theatres, will prove victorious at the box office this weekend  – and the next weekend, and the one after that, and so on and so forth, until Catching Fire has not merely broken but incinerated most sales records set before it.

If our expectations sound a tad hyperbolic, consider the context. The first Hunger Games film opened to an awe-some $152 million. It continued to hold strong through the duration of its theatrical run, resisting any significant downturn in sales thanks to strong word-of-mouth and favorable reviews. By the time it finally closed, The Hunger Games had amassed $408 million. That makes it the 14th highest-grossing movie of all time. Surprisingly, it out-earned any of the Harry Potter or Twilight films, which had previously set the bar for frenzied-fan fare.

Then there’s that small, shiny pated statue perched somewhere in Jennifer Lawrence’s house. The actress who plays Katniss Everdeen has seen her star rise and rise since 2012’s Games. She won an Oscar for her turn as a stubborn yet compassionate (we spy a theme) dancer in David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook last year, and stood out within an ensemble cast of pretty mutants in Marble’s lucrative tentpole X Men: First Class. Add to the mix all those viral videos of her acting lovely, like the one in which she comforted a crying fan, and Jennifer Lawrence is capable of calling upon quite a large group of faithful for support.

However, there are those pundits who believe it would be difficult for any film, even this one, to surpass a $152 million weekend opening. There’s little doubt Catching Fire will match its predecessor – beyond that, it may eke out another $8 million or so for a staggering $160 haul. Odds are favorable.

Less so for the latest Vince Vaughn comedy, Delivery Man. Once a bankable draw, Vaughn has taken his lumps of late. Neither The Internship nor The Dilemma (no, can’t remember them either) was very successful, with the one opening to $17.3 million and the other $17.8 million. Man is tracking for an even poorer debut.

Specialty release Philomena also opens in four locations today. The film has seen a small boost in publicity in recent weeks, thanks to Harvey Weinstein’s successful campaign to change the movie’s R rating to PG-13. Weinstein’s hoping the softened label will reap dividends when Philomena opens wide and becomes accessible to family and church-going audiences, but for now, its largely positive reviews should appeal to the weekend’s arthouse viewers.

In all, between Catching Fire and the still popular Thor: The Dark World and The Best Man Holiday, this coming weekend could be one of the cinema’s best ever.

‘Thor’ hangs tough amid a happy ‘Holiday’

Far exceeding expectations, The Best Man Holiday enjoyed a very merry debut. In 1999, The Best Man netted $9 million its opening weekend, or $14 million when adjusted for inflation. Its holiday reunion sequel, featuring several cast members who have grown in popularity over the last decade-and-a-half, took in $30 million this past weekend – double the original’s haul. Audiences were overwhelmingly African American (87 percent) and female (75 percent), prompting many pundits to reiterate their claim that African Americans are a largely underserved demographic.

Be that as it may, audiences of all stripes continued to pack the theatre for Thor. The Dark World held on to its no. 1 slot with $38.5 million. Although the Marvel  blockbuster can now boast a $147 million domestic cume, it did slip 55 percent from last weekend. The original Thor only slid 47 percent its sophomore weekend, although, to be fair, Iron Man 3, featuring arguably the most likable superhero of the crowded bunch, suffered a 58 percent dropoff its second weekend out of the gate. As it stands now, Thor: The Dark World will likely reap $250 million by the end of its run, so there’s really no need to lament the inevitability of a slipping grip.

Last Vegas and Free Birds also continued to fulfill their roles, as box-office filler, to the best of their abilities. Once again, the two comedies targeted toward audience members at opposite ends of the life cycle clocked in at nos. 3 and 4, respectively. Last Vegas dipped just 20 percent to earn $8.85 million, while Birds pecked out a respectable $8.3 million profit. Rounding out the weekend's top 5, Bad Grandpa took in over $7 million, bringing its total domestic earnings to $90.2 million. The film will likely stick around until it’s crossed the impressive $100 million mark.

Having earned $140,000 from four locations, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has divided pundits as to whether or not it enjoyed a successful debut. For a specialty feature, $140,000 is a respectable and certainly solid figure. However, as this is also a Payne movie and the followup to the director’s Oscar-winning The Descendants, there are those who felt disappointed by Nebraska’s $35,000 per-theatre average. The black-and-white film will also likely prove a marketing challenge beyond the arthouse contingent. Awards buzz might help, but the movie’s popular success is far from certain.

The same couldn’t be further from the truth when it comes to the season’s largest success story, Gravity. Just because the 3D feature has been missing from the headlines these past few weeks doesn’t mean viewers have forgotten about it. On the contrary: Gravity passed the $500 million international benchmark this weekend.

Can The Hunger Games: Catching Fire hope to match that? T minus four days!

Even ‘The Best’ can’t beat ‘Thor’

As the only new movie opening in wide release this weekend, The Best Man Holiday is expected to make a strong debut. But one’s “strength” is, of course, relative when compared to that of a towheaded Norse god. If the Taye Diggs romantic dramedy is in fact the cinema’s best man, then Thor: The Dark World is the bridegroom, the main attraction. The two sequels (The Best Man opened back in 1999) will go head-to-head over the next several days, though it won’t be much of a bout. The Dark World is poised to reap $35 million or so, while Holiday is tracking in the mid $20-million range. Still, the latter is expected to out-perform the brand’s first installment. The Best Man opened to a modest $9 million 14 years ago, accumulating $34 million by the end of its run. (Adjusted for inflation, that number is roughly $54 million.) Holiday is also trending strong among African American women, the same demographic that helped last spring’s Think Like A Man debut to over $33 million. Perhaps they’ll ensure Thor wins the weekend by a smaller margin than predicted.

The Best Man Holiday wasn’t always the lone wide release scheduled to open over the weekend of November 15th, however. As of early October, The Book Thief and Scorsese’s eagerly anticipated The Wolf of Wall Street were also slated to bow tonight. But Fox soon changed its mind about the best Book Thief release strategy, and opted for a platform approach beginning last weekend instead. And Wolf of Wall Street was running a little long for its studio’s comfort. Rumors had been circulating for some time that Scorsese wouldn’t have a suitable cut finished in time for tonight. By the end of the month it was clear that he wouldn’t, and now Wolf has been pushed back to Christmas Day. If others had been pondering an 11/15 rollout, they (wisely) thought better of sandwiching themselves between blockbuster Thor and international phenom The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which opens next Friday. Hence, The Best Man’s single status.


The specialty market will offer up its own version of a major release in the form of Alexander Payne’s (The Descendants) Nebraska, opening in four locations tonight. Bruce Dern won the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival for his turn as an aging alcoholic convinced he’s won a million dollars. Between the director’s clout, the Cannes buzz, and the film’s generally favorable reviews (89% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Nebraska is expected to average $40,000 per theatre.

Dallas Buyers Club expands again, this time to 184 locations. Most likely, it’ll earn over $1 million.

And then next weekend, nothing else going on anywhere or doing anything will matter, because The Hunger Games will have arrived. Simply put, the odds are in no one else’s favor.

‘Thor’ proves its mighty earning mettle

As predicted, Thor: The Dark World ruled the multiplexes this weekend. The latest Marvel action (with a hefty dose of comedy) flick earned $86 million at the domestic box office and $180 million worldwide. It looks as if the lauded sequel will soon out-gross its predecessor: By the end of  summer 2011, Thor had earned a successful $450 million worldwide, while The Dark World has already amassed a stellar $327 million after only two weeks. Many are crediting Thor’s appearance in 2012’s The Avengers with increasing interest in his character. The “Avengers Effect” was certainly in play for Iron Man 3, which saw a significant boost in sales over Iron Man 2 (36%) after it opened post-Avengers. Not everyone is thrilled with what is undoubtedly a blockbuster debut, however. 3D attendance was down from the first Thor, and 3D sales made up just 39% of The Dark World’s overall gross, falling short of Gravity-influenced expectations. But that’s splitting hairs on a well-coiffed head. Lacking as it does any significant competition, Thor is expected to hold onto its title for some time.



Unfortunately for everyone else, standing next to a Norse god is bound to dwarf you.  This weekend’s No. 2, Bad Grandpa, earned just $11.3 million, down 44% from last weekend. The good news? Even with the inevitable dropoff, Grandpa is the second highest-grossing Jackass film of all time, on track to earn well over $100 million.

Third and fourth place just missed out-grossing Grandpa. Free Birds and Last Vegas earned $11.2 and $11.1 million, respectively. Their overall cumes are equally waddle-neck-in-neck:  Audiences have more or less ignored the critics and helped Free Birds earn $30.2 million and Last Vegas $33.5 million to date.



Dropping faster than an intergalactic deity to Earth, Ender’s Game suffered a sales dip of 62% to earn $10.3 million. That brings the film’s total up to $44 million, which, considering its advance hype, production costs and this weekend’s steep sophomore dropoff, qualifies it as a bomb. Expect the film to hang around for another week or two, but once Katniss and co. stage their multiplex takeover come November 22 for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Ender’s Game will be all but over.

Not so with Steve McQueen’s everyone-loves-it 12 Years A Slave. After expanding wide to 1,144 locations, Slave earned $6.6 million to bump its total earnings up to $17.3 million. The rollout, and profits, will continue this coming weekend when the film screens at roughly 1,300 theatres.



Finally, with the weekend’s smallest opening, The Book Thief earned a solid $108,000 from four locations. The film, though, isn’t tracking too hot on Rotten Tomatoes – 59% rotten – and Fox has yet to announce further expansion plans.