'Elysium' should lead, with 'Planes' at its tail

This weekend brings four new releases, two today and two that jumped the gun with an early release on Wednesday. The frontrunner is Elysium (3,284 theatres), which has two things going for it: District 9 writer/director Neill Blomkamp, and star Matt Damon. Critics have been

more tepid towards Elysium: It's tracking just 66% positive, compared to District 9's 90% "Fresh" rating (it also scored an Oscar nod for Best Picture). Our critic Michael Sauter was one of those who came out in favor of the futuristic dystopia. He calls out its "hurtling momentum,
with enough boom-crash-splatter explosiveness to wow even the most
hardened action junkie," which pairs well with a "topical, deeply
resonant theme and premise." Others (including myself) thought the plot had some gaping Swiss cheese-holes, with commentary not nearly as biting as District 9, and I suspect audiences will come away with a similar spectrum of reactions. Curiosity and name-brand recognition should bring Elysium over a $30 million opening.

Joining Elysium is Planes (3,702 theatres), the final animated release of the summer. Both Turbo and live-action/animation hybrid The Smurfs 2 fell victim to animation fatigue, and the huge amount of animated product in release should definitely take a slice out of Planes' pie. An opening over $20 million would be good news for this "simplistic knockoff" of Cars, which Disney moved from direct-to-video to theatrical release. "Why didn’t someone bring the pixie dust that makes
Pixar’s animated flicks a cut above in wit, style and detail?" our critic Harry Haun bemoans. Still, plenty of young kids are obsessed with planes, cars, and all things mechanical, and this movie will be catnip to those youngsters--if not the parents who bring them to theatres.

A low-level pot dealer (Jason Sudeikis) becomes a drug runner to get himself out of a pinch in We're the Millers (3,260 theatres), assembling a fake family (including Jennifer Aniston as a stripper) in the process. Our critic David Noh loved the cast and the premise, but regrets that the "direction and writing are so scattershot, they engender only
fitful amusement." A real highlight is Nick Offerman as a goody two-shoes RV owner--he's
probably one of my favorite comedy players right now. We're the Millers earned $6.7 million on Wednesday, and its totals should rise to the upper-$20 millions by Monday.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (3,031 theatres) also opened on Wednesday, earning $5.4 million, which also should put it on track for a weekend somewhere north of $20 million. This is an action-fantasy for the tween set, with "Harry Potter-esque assets" that become less appealing the older and more discerning the audience gets, according to FJI's Doris Toumarkine.

This weekend's specialty offerings include In a World (3 theatres), a comedy starring Lake Bell as a wannabe voiceover artist that "has its moments," according to Toumarkine. Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine will expand from 50 to 116 locations in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see if Elysium indeed grabbed the top spot, and how the other three new releases finished in this close August weekend.

George Clooney fights Nazis in 'Monuments Men'

If you look at the lineup of Oscar nominees in any given year, it becomes clear that movies taking place during World War II are heavily represented. There are serious movies, like Schindler's List, The Reader, The Pianist, The Thin Red Line, and Saving Private Ryan, to name just a few, and then there's Quentin Tarantino's recent injection of humor into the genre via Inglourious Basterds. The Monuments Men, which stars George Clooney as a Nazi-fighting commander of a small, scrappy group of fighters, appears to nod to both.

The trailer for the Columbia action thriller, which comes out in prime holiday movie season, December 18, establishes that the stakes are high, but the group is mostly in control. An illustrative scene features Matt Damon frozen in place, explaining that he has stepped on a land mine, while his buddies come in, repeating, "Whadja do that for?" In that sense, it appears the George Clooney-directed feature may also be cribbing from the tone from another actor-directed work, Ben Affleck's Argo, which had real stakes but also a front-and-center sense of humor about the CIA's attempt to get Americans out of Iran during the hostage crisis. Hey, it won the movie a Best Picture Oscar, after all.

I wonder if there's something to the fact that both of these movies have an actor's stamp on them--perhaps it's much harder for a screenwriter to mix humor and drama together on the page, whereas a project with an actor attached has a great first reader to help sell the idea. Just a thought. In the case of The Monuments Men, Clooney co-wrote the screenplay with his frequent production partner Grant Heslov (The Men Who Stare at Goats, and producer of Affleck's Argo), based on a nonfiction book. Argo took a similar path, adapting a magazine article that outlined true events. Affleck's only additional credit was for producing, not writing, though it's worth noting he did win an Oscar for the screenplay he wrote with Damon for Good Will Hunting. With summer movie season winding down, 'tis the season for great-looking trailers for fall and winter movies. For the time being, we're riding high, ignoring the inevitable letdown some of these movies will bring.

See the trailer for 'Enough Said,' with James Gandolfini and Julia Louis-Dreyfus

When James Gandolfini died suddenly earlier this year, the "Sopranos" actor still had unreleased movies. Enough Said is one of them, and from the trailer, it looks like a work worthy to remember the great actor. The astute observer of the upper middle class Nicole Holofcener (Please Give, Friends with Money) wrote the script and directs, and it looks on par with her best work.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus plays a masseuse struggling with being an empty nester as her daughter prepares to enroll in college. Then she meets Gandolfini, and they quickly fall for each other. Then, it turns out one of her clients (Catherine Keener) is his ex-wife. They become friends, and Keener unloads all the things that used to annoy her about her husband, from his eating habits to his clumsiness. And it turns out that dissatisfaction is catchy. "She's like a human TripAdvisor!" Louis-Dreyfus says to another friend in a trailer, one of my favorite lines. As one of those people who immediately knows what she's talking about (TripAdvisor has an odd ability to make you choose a well-reviewed place, then become hypersensitive to all the things you have been warned about, like late-night noise or the perceived rudeness of the staff), I know Enough Said will definitely be a movie with some razor-sharp laughs. See for yourself, below, or wait until the movie comes out on October 10.

Benedict Cumberbatch plays Wikileaks founder in 'The Fifth Estate'

Many know Benedict Cumberbatch from his role in BBC's "Sherlock Holmes" (watch it on Netflix!) and his villainous roles in Stark Trek Into Darkness and as the necromancer in The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Now he's playing Julian Assange in The Fifth Estate, the trailer for which just hit the Internet. Is Julian Assange a hero, or a villain? That appears to be just one question on which those affected by Assange's site Wikileaks differ.

The DreamWorks/Touchstone release, which joins a host of prestige movies coming out this fall, tries hard to make it seem like Wikileaks changed the world, but I can't say I'm 100% sure it succeeds. As of today, an upbeat ending is far from assured. Assange is holed up in Ecuador's embassy in London, while one of the leakers on his site, Bradley Manning, is facing 90 years in prison for what he did. This story is extremely close to the current events it covers, and until I see the finished product, it's hard to know if this will work for or against the movie. Check out the trailer for the movie, which comes out October 18, below. Cast also includes Stanley Tucci, and Bill Condon (Kinsey, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 & 2, Dreamgirls) directs.

'2 Guns' on top as animation fatigue continues with 'Smurfs 2'

Too much competition in the animated market has been hurting the kid-friendly selections unlucky enough to choose a late summer release. The Smurfs 2 opened to just $18.2 million over the weekend, which is half of the original's three-day total. Even with its Wednesday start, the five-day total of $27 million is $8 million less than the original's three-day total. Not good news for the blue creatures, or Sony either. And just two weeks ago, DreamWorks Animation's Turbo opened to a scant $21 million. What's going on?

Last year, just two animated movies opened during the summer: Brave and Madagascar 3. This year, there are six movies coming out in the May-August period. It's fair to say there were going to be some casualties. May's Epic did okay, topping out just over the $100 million mark, while Despicable Me 2 ($326 million) and Monsters University ($258 million) are in the top four movies this year, period, losing out only to Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel, respectively. The success of these two features is the reason so many studios want to get in the animation game, but it appears family audiences may have seen one or both of these better-regarded features, then taken a pass on Turbo and The Smurfs 2. Disney is likely nervous, because animated Cars spin-off Planes is coming out this Friday. Originally planned as a direct-to-video release, the upside is that the studio doesn't have too much riding on this feature financially compared to expensive Pixar originals. A theatrical release was likely designed to boost the ancillary revenue Disney wrings from its animated properties, especially for an action figure and ride-friendly concept like Planes, but an extremely low opening may defeat the point of releasing it theatrically in the first place.

While adult audiences have also suffered from tentpole fatigue, 2 Guns, billed more as a buddy cop comedy than a movie with fantastic explosions, didn't crash and burn. The $27 million opening, while enough to earn first place, is particularly low for a movie with Denzel Washington on the top bill. After all, he brought Safe House to a $40 million opening. That movie, however, had a more defined, marketable plot, while 2 Guns has confusing double-crossing going on that isn't as easy to explain in quick TV spots.

Coming-of-age tale The Spectacular Now had a spectacular debut, averaging $50,000 per screen in four locations, a promising sign for the well-reviewed feature. Meanwhile, fellow Sundance darlings The Way, Way Back and Fruitvale Station were neck and neck this weekend, earning $2.8 and $2.7 million, respectively. Both had comparable per-screen averages, so it will be interesting to watch which one plays longer with audiences.

On Wednesday, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters and drug-running comedy We're the Millers will jump-start the weekend, followed by original sci-fi movie Elysium, which is written and directed by District 9's Neill Blomkamp.

 

'2 Guns' joins 'Smurfs 2,' but both want to be number one

This year has been exceptionally crowded when it comes to animated features, which doesn't bode well for the U.S. release of The Smurfs 2 (3,866 theatres). The original Smurf outing opened over $30 million in 2011, and a similar result for the sequel would be good, especially because the
biggest grosses are expected abroad. But what's to prevent families from choosing Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Epic, or Monsters University instead? There's only so many times parents can take their kids to the movies. THR's Justin Lowe thinks that parents will just give in, predicting that the animated feature "should have little trouble scaling stratospheric heights
similar to its predecessor with undiscriminating young audiences
and their chaperones, weary from near-unrelenting summertime
caregiving." Perhaps for some, The Smurfs 2 will provide that respite, as the blueberry-tinged creatures use their "curious blend of wide-eyed optimism and
goofy enthusiasm" to solve problems.

Denzel Washington is a sure thing at the box office, and that's what Universal will be counting on
for 2 Guns (3,025 theatres), which teams up the action star with Mark Wahlberg. The buddy cop feature with bits of comedy thrown in is "fun to watch but almost instantly forgettable," according to FJI critic Daniel Eagan, who compares it to "the B-movies of an earlier generation," meaning "it's
fast, tough and smarter than it has to be." Like The Smurfs 2, 2 Guns is aiming for an opening north of $30 million. The Smurfs 2 released starting Wednesday, when it earned $5.2 million, so it's unclear whether that early opening will help it gain steam or if it may slow down more quickly over the weekend.

There's also plenty going on at the indie box office. The writers of (500) Days of Summer adapted the script for The Spectacular Now (4 theatres), which earned raves at the Sundance Film Festival and is another excellent showcase for rising star Shailene Woodley, who appeared as George Clooney's daughter in The Descendants. The high-school set coming-of-age story "deserves to
reach a wide demographic," says critic Kevin Lally, "Its most appreciative audience may very
well be an older art-house crowd; the crossover to watch is the
teen segment." A24, which released teen pics The Bling Ring and Spring Breakers, will try to repeat its formula of attracting cinephiles and young viewers with the picture.

The found-footage genre goes into deep space in Europa Report (3 theatres), which critic Nick Schager praises for being a "well-executed, thematically intriguing tale of outer space
exploration and the responsibilities and risks such an enterprise
entails." Then there's Lindsay Lohan and James Deen pairing up for The Canyons (1 theatre), which our critic Doris Toumarkine predicts will be "catnip for Gawker/TMZ-loving loyalists but also won’t disappoint more demanding viewers."

On Monday, we'll see if audiences chose The Smurfs 2 or 2 Guns, and which of the specialty releases is on track to have a strong expansion through the rest of August.

'Lone Survivor': Another gritty war movie like 'Zero Dark Thirty'?

After so many summer tentpoles flopped, there's already worry in Hollywood that a crowded fall of adult-leaning prestige releases, which includes Captain Philips, Rush, and The Fifth Estate, will mean at least one movie will end up completely being overrun by the competition. Additionally, all three of the above releases are biographical (Commercial ship captain, racecar driver, and Wikileaks creator, respectively), which is yet another story trend that appears to be picking up speed. Lone Survivor will release after the fall rush but in the midst of the holiday one, on December 27. The trailer for the movie released today, which makes the military procedural appear like Zero Dark Thirty, although with flourishes that render the movie more Heartland and military base-friendly, like a SEAL reciting his military credo, and an inspirational song that plays against the trailer's images of the firefight.

Like Best Picture Oscar nominee ZDT, Lone Survivor is based on a true story. It takes place in 2005, when a group of SEALs engages Al Qaeda in an epic firefight that, as the title suggests, does not have a good outcome for the group. Mark Wahlberg and Eric Bana star, and Friday Night Lights director Peter Berg, hopefully recovering from the poor showing of another Universal picture last year, Battleship, is at the helm. Check out the trailer below.